Most Bottom Signals Are In. One Isn't.
Bitcoin’s late-cycle signals meet weak spot demand, while AI token economics separate real value capture from narrative.
Adrian's DeFi Alpha
I translate crypto markets, data, and trends into clear actions for smarter investing.
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Latest episodes
The DeFi Businesses Winning a Slow Market
Bitcoin’s unresolved range, Hyperliquid’s priority fees and Uniswap’s first test of durable token revenue.
Only Two Onchain Models Still Growing
DeFi revenue shrinks, Hyperliquid and Collector Crypt still expand onchain.
What If Bitcoin Never Capitulates?
Oil near $90, record margin debt, and a broken BTC cycle signal make positioning more important than prediction.
Robinhood Chain Is Growing Faster Than Expected. But Will It Last?
Inflation cooled, liquidity improved and Bitcoin is testing the level that decides the next trend.
Q4 Low Incoming? July Rally Says Careful
BTC’s 200WMA Test, Strategy’s First Sale, and Two Alpha Setups to Watch
Three Signals Will Confirm Bitcoin’s Next Bottom
Strategy Stress, Forced ETF Selling, and the Return of Forward-Looking Capital
Risk Assets Lost Their Fuel. Now What?
Saylor Stress Signal, Dollar Strength, AI Leverage and Bitcoin’s Critical Levels.
Is This The Best BTC Accumulation Window?
The Two Questions Every BTC Buyer Must Answer Now.
HYPE Keeps Ripping While Bitcoin Breaks Down
HYPE’s ATH, Tokenized TCG Momentum, and Bitcoin’s Next Accumulation Band.
The Bull Case I'm Taking Seriously
Why RWAs, Perp DEXs, and Privacy Coins Are Leading While Charts Bleed.
Why The Real Capitulation May Still Be Ahead.
Why Late Buyers Are Returning, What Top Cohorts Signal, and How to Size Calmly.
Two Crypto Markets: Which One Are You In?
Bitcoin ETF Inflows, DeFi’s Security Crisis, and HYPE’s Finance Takeover
The Bull Case Looks Too Perfect
Bullish Data, Bearish Timing, and the Coming Retest.
PUMP Looks Cheap, Is It Solana’s Best Bet?
Bitcoin stays strong while PUMP starts to look seriously underpriced.
AAVE Pumped. I Sold. Here’s Why
BTC reclaimed momentum, tokenization kept growing and two conflicting onchain reads
BTC Relief Rally, But Is Pain Over?
BTC reclaims strength, ETH rebuilds its thesis, and TAO plus ZEC flash relative power.
Oil Shock vs Crypto: Global Disruption as a Catalyst?
ETF Inflows Rise While Whales Distribute and Hyperliquid Captures Macro Flows
Growth Up, Inflation Down. Risk On?
Bitcoin ETF demand confirms year-end de-risking is over and chatbots become businesses
Compression Phase Before The Next Break?
BTC Consolidation, Political Shockwaves, and the Next Market Tell