Hey Friend!
2025 was brutal for new tokens: 65% are down at least 50%, and over half are down 70%+.
At some point it became clear most altcoin investors weren’t front-running, they were the exit liquidity. Is this actually the bottom of the altcoin market? Too early to tell, but fundamentally good projects will continue to perform.
Let’s get into the broader picture and how to set up for the coming week:
📈 Market Update – BTC consolidates near $91.3k after a politically charged push above $92k. Powell vs. Trump tension weakens trust in institutions, the dollar slips, and capital rotates into safe havens. This doesn’t look like a top — it looks like positioning.
🐂 Alpha Insights – Privacy coins lead as policy credibility wobbles. Ethereum usage keeps rising while price stalls. ETF flows flip positive again. Historically, consolidations after big moves resolve faster this cycle — structure still favors continuation.
The current state of the market.
Right now, BTC is at $91.3k and consolidating. Tight range, compressed energy,
The sunday move above $92k move came from politics bleeding into monetary policy. Jerome Powell publicly stated that the U.S. Department of Justice threatened a criminal indictment tied to his 2025 congressional testimony — pressure he framed as retaliation for defending Fed independence over presidential preference.
That was the moment the tone shifted.
President Trump has been openly attacking Powell for resisting faster and deeper rate cuts. When that tension spilled into legal threats, markets heard it very clearly: The firewall between politics and money is thinner than advertised.
→ When trust in institutions wobbles, capital is not happy about it.
Bitcoin reacted first, but the real tell was under the surface. Privacy coins took the lead. Monero jumped nearly 18% to fresh all-time highs. Zcash followed with close to 10%. That’s not random rotation but a vote for censorship resistance at the exact moment policy credibility gets questioned.
Gold moving in parallel only reinforced the message. Safe havens were bid because the dollar suddenly felt less… solid.
The general macro environment remains supportive though. Tax cuts back on the table. Powell’s exit increasingly plausible. The Fed balance sheet expanding again. Stimulus checks or tax rebates could be coming by the end of 2026. And altcoin ETFs are getting approved at a pace no one expected.
On top of that, the dollar slipped after Powell’s DOJ comments, aligning perfectly with Trump’s openly stated “cut and pump” approach.
So no, this doesn’t feel like the top. It feels like the market preparing for the next leg.
For now, the job is simple: watch the consolidation, respect the structure, and let the higher low prove itself.
Let the monitoring continue.
After significant moves, consolidation is usually shorter this cycle than last cycle.
Historically, after larger sell-offs, BTC consolidates for roughly 6–9 weeks before moving again. That pattern has repeated across cycles.
Let’s talk aboujt Ethereum.
There’s a clear mismatch showing up in Ethereum once you look at the data.
Economic activity (TVL) settling on Ethereum keeps rising, even through periods where ETH price has been consolidating Usage didn’t slow. Value just stopped reflecting it.
At the same time, more institutional capital is choosing Ethereum for live deployment. Uptime, liquidity, settlement certainty, compliance — that shortens the list of viable chains fast.
As more activity moves onchain, transaction volume and fee generation keep stacking weight onto Ethereum’s base layer.
→ When usage stays elevated, ETH rarely stays flat for long.
ETF flows finally flipped.
Bitcoin ETFs saw 187M in net inflows after four straight days of bleeding. Not explosive, but decisive. It signals buyers stepping back in once selling pressure cooled.
Ethereum followed. 80M in inflows after three days of outflows. Smaller number, same message.
Flows aren’t crazy yet, but we saw a positive shift.
If you want a straight to the point newsletter full of calls, new projects, airdrop farms, memecoin and DeFi moonshots, then Hix0n’s Confidential is the place for you. I can really recommend his take (if you’re comfortable with high risk).
That’s it for today’s episode, thank you for being here!
Till next time, stay safe!
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