Is This The Best BTC Accumulation Window?

Hey Friend,

Bitcoin slipped under $60,000 on Friday, and the timeline split into two camps.

One camp is shaken. Two straight weeks of ETF outflows, a Saylor sale, price grinding lower. They’re reading it ever bearish after switching bullish at $80k.

The other camp is adding. I’m in that camp. We added to spot at $60k last week and we’ve now deployed 60% of our remaining stables to solid long term investments.

Let me be honest about why, because this only works if you read it the same way I do.

This is one of the best windows in a while to accumulate Bitcoin for the long term. Not a guarantee. A setup. If you think BTC makes new all-time highs from here, and you think the regulatory backdrop keeps improving with the Genius Act, then the risk-to-reward at these levels is hard to ignore.

But that “if” is the whole game. If you don’t believe Bitcoin goes higher, you shouldn’t be buying it at any price. There’s no clever framing around that. The setup only matters once you’ve taken a side.

So take a side. Then we can talk about what’s happening in the market this week.

1. 📈 Market Update – Bitcoin slips under $60k and the timeline splits in two. The case for why this is one of the best long-term accumulation windows in a while, the regulatory tailwind from the Genius Act, and the only two scenarios that matter: a 35% drop to $39k, or a 2x from here.

2. 💸 Market Flows – Two straight weeks of billion-dollar ETF outflows (-$1.72B, -$1.42B), and why most of it is a basis trade unwinding, not capitulation. Saylor's Strategy buys 1,550 BTC and sells 32 to fund the STRC dividend (the bullish part). Plus the macro squeeze: SpaceX's $75B IPO is about to pull liquidity right when the market wants it.

3. 🐂 Alpha Insights – Where I'm actually positioned: added spot at $60k, 60% of stables deployed, limit orders staged to $40k, Strategy build around $100. The two questions that decide whether this setup is yours, and the STRC level to watch.

The current state of the market.

Saylor is buying his own losses

Strategy bought another 1,550 BTC for $101 million between June 1 and June 7. That puts them at 845,256 BTC, more than 4% of the entire 21 million supply.

At today’s price, that stack sits on roughly $10.5 billion in unrealized losses. The new buying came days after Strategy’s first sale since December 2022: 32 coins at an average of $77,135, about $2.5 million, to fund the dividend on its STRC perpetual preferred, the one they call “Stretch.” The purchases themselves were funded by selling their own stock through an at-the-market program.

Read that twice. Saylor signaling fresh accumulation is a signal. Strategy as a leveraged, equity-funded, underwater whale is a risk. Both are true. The same conviction that makes him a buyer makes him a danger if we see much lower prices.

But the crowd read the sale wrong. Saylor selling is a net positive, for MSTR and for the market. It puts the balance sheet to work instead of leaving it as unrealized optionality, a pile of what-it-could-be. The sales give Strategy a cleaner way to fund its preferred dividends, and when mNAV drops below 1.22, to buy back its own stock, which lifts bitcoin per share. My only criticism: $2.5 million isn’t enough. If you’re selling, sell enough to cover the dividend for 24 months instead of feeding the market a fresh headline every week.

→ What to watch: STRC. It needs to hold around $100 for the buying spree to continue, and it’s already recovered well off Friday’s dip to $90.

The flows cut both ways

Spot Bitcoin ETFs just printed back-to-back weeks of outflows over $1 billion. Minus $1.72B last week, minus $1.42B the week before. Heaviest exit pressure since January, and Friday’s dip under $60k lined up with it almost perfectly.

What matters is the structure. ETF flows are now the most visible way institutions and retail place a directional bet. But a big slice of that “buying” was never a bet at all. It’s the basis trade: buy the spot ETF, short the future, and harvest the spread while funding rates stay positive. Market-neutral, pure carry. The moment that spread stops paying, those holders unwind, and the redemptions land as ETF outflows that have nothing to do with anyone turning bearish.

That’s the trap in reading flows as pure sentiment. Some of these outflows are conviction. Some are just a carry trade running out of juice. Price feels both the same way.

Now zoom out, because crypto doesn’t trade in a vacuum

US tech is running hot. The sector is up about 42% in two months, the second-strongest stretch this century. It beats the 40% blow-off from the 2000 dotcom peak. Chips alone are up 66%.

That dragged the whole market with it. The S&P is up over 16% in two months while half its members sit below their 100-day average. An acceleration like that, outside a recession, last showed up right before Black Monday in 1987. The recoveries after 2000, 2008 and 2020 were relief rallies after real panic. There’s no panic here. Just a market grinding higher on thinner breadth.

And next week the liquidity gets pulled. SpaceX prices its IPO on June 11 and trades June 12 on the Nasdaq as SPCX. At $135 a share that’s a $1.75 trillion valuation, about 93.7 times revenue, on $18.67 billion in sales last year, a $4.94 billion loss, and only Starlink actually profitable. The raise is around $75 billion, the largest IPO ever.

That’s the bigger point. The AI race is peaking and everyone is reaching for cash at once. SpaceX pulls $75 billion out of the market right when it needs liquidity. OpenAI and Anthropic are next, another ~$4 trillion in listings chasing the same dollars. Money that isn’t flowing into risk assets.

Good opportunities I discovered.

Forget price targets. Two questions decide whether this setup is yours.

1. Can you stomach the downside? The 0.786 retrace of the whole move since the last bear market low in November 2022 sits at $39k. We could drop from $60k another 35% into the low 40s or high 30s before the final bear market low is in. If that number makes you feel overpositioned, you are.

2. Are you positioned for the upside? If BTC does what you think it will, did you accumulate enough to make it matter? A 2x on a position too small to move your net worth is probably not worth the time you spend in the market.

Most people get this backwards. They obsess over the entry and ignore the size. Taste and timing beat the perfect order block every time. Be in the right boat before you argue about the seat.

The setup is here. Whether it’s yours comes down to one thing: can your positioning survive being right slowly and wrong first.

Sit with both questions before the next big candle answers them for you.

I've got limit orders staged down to $40k and a Strategy position I am building around $100. Not predictions. Just what being positioned looks like once you've picked your camp.

That’s it for today’s episode, thank you for reading my thoughts!

Till next time, stay safe!

• Adrian