The Bull Case Looks Too Perfect

Hey Friend!

Fifty percent of the “crypto news” I read this week was war updates.

The Strait of Hormuz is still restricted. No peace in sight. And in the middle of all that, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 just hit new all-time highs and that against analyst consensus, against the geopolitical backdrop, against most people’s models.

Markets don’t care about your narrative.

The bull case is convincing. That’s the problem.

Here’s the bull case, and I’ll be fair about it. About 1 million BTC has moved from short-term holders into long-term wallets since January. Long-term holders now control roughly 14.6 million BTC which is around 73% of the 20M Bitcoin ever mined.

Saylor’s buying. Tom Lee’s buying. Wall Street’s buying. Spot crypto ETPs pulled in $1.2B in inflows last week… (this week looks less constructive so far)

Those forces are real. The data isn’t invented.

But every Bitcoin bear market runs the same script. Bears get louder. Bulls get more thorough. In 2014, the case was about inevitable adoption — the internet of money, just give it time. In 2018, it was institutional on-ramps: CME futures, the infrastructure finally maturing. Both times, the case was internally consistent. Both times, Bitcoin fell 80%.

The arguments weren’t wrong. The timing was.

The bull arguments only get this sophisticated after the easy money has left. The data fills the vacuum that selling pressure created. Conviction and arguments peak at the same moment price does.

The sophistication of the case isn’t proof it’s right. It’s the tell.

There’s more reason for caution underneath.

BTC is still roughly 40% below its Q4 all-time high — even with stocks at new highs and Strategy deploying capital at a historic pace.

The current move appears primarily futures-driven rather than spot-backed. That distinction matters: leverage can vanish in a session, real spot demand takes longer to build.

And on global money supply, there’s a reasonable case it hit its cycle top in Q4 alongside Bitcoin’s peak.

Strategy and STRC deserve a mention here…

In the last three weeks, their preferred stock structure has allowed them to deploy $3.8 billion into BTC. $11.4 billion in 2026 alone. That scale of buying didn’t exist in previous bear markets — and short-term, it’s unambiguously bullish. One entity sustaining a price floor mid-cycle is new territory.

But we all should be asking one question: What does the price look like the quarter they pause?

My bias hasn’t moved. I expect lower lows. And even if $60k was the bottom, a retest is historically likely. The pattern gets questioned every cycle. It’s held every cycle.

Sell in May and go away is a saying for a reason.

Some Alpha for you: If you want a straight to the point newsletter full of calls, new projects, airdrop farms, memecoin and DeFi moonshots, then Hix0n’s Confidential is the place for you. I can really recommend his take (if you’re comfortable with high risk).

That’s it for today’s episode, thank you for being here!

Till next time, stay safe!

• Adrian