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Access/Macro

The economy is unpredictable. Your strategy doesn't have to be.

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Don't Expect a July Fed Hike, but Simmering Frustrations May Become More Apparent

A July hike is unlikely, but battle lines within the Committee are likely to become clearer as members look to backdoor forward guidance through economic assessments.

Battle of the Warm Weather States

Florida Struggles as California Mounts a Comeback, and there's no hidden unemployment problem.

Cool It Hawks. The Inflationary Picture Isn't As Bad As It Seems

There are reasons to be optimistic that the inflation data will play ball later this year, but don't expect a rate cut.

Kevin Warsh Hawkish Superstar Has a Stick of Dynamite, and He's Itching to Use It

There are a lot of changes coming to the Fed, just not in interest rates.

Employment Revisions Turn Positive

When Good News Becomes Even Better

What's Ahead for a Warsh Fed

Warsh is right to rethink transparency and Fed communication, but his views on monetary policy and a new Fed Accord need work. This piece is the start of a series on the Warsh Fed.

More hiring. More layoffs. Why you should be doing more of both.

America's employers may come to regret their hiring freeze.

More Fed Attacks, More Trump Headaches, or Not

No, this isn't 4D chess. But the administration may not be in a rush to have Kevin Warsh confirmed as the next Fed Chair.

The Unemployment Rate Is Alright

Not Perfect, but Very Useful.

Houston, We Have a Core PCE Inflation Problem

...and it started before the Iran War.

AI Isn't Causing the World to Implode, but Your Stale Talent Pipeline Might

We published a version of this argument in a Barron's op-ed last week. What follows is the extended director's cut.

AI & MARKETS: Dystopian Fears, Panicked Bears, and a Cold Shower

Citrini Research and Alap Shah wrote a tail-risk AI scenario that tanked markets. This is not the liquidity trap to worry about.

FED PREVIEW: December 2025 FOMC Meeting - More Smoke, Less Fire

What to expect at tomorrow's FOMC meeting and press conference.

FED: The most dangerous, and irresponsible, game

The administration is playing with fire for no reason. The attack against Governor Cook is dangerous, no matter what occurred.

INFLATION: Not what the headlines said

If you read the paper today, you probably got the wrong impression about what the latest CPI data said about where inflation is heading. Here's what you need to know.

FORECAST: Comfortably numb

The trade war is on pause, and frankly, we've gotten used to the chaos. That's good news for the economy.

FED: What's it going to take to lower rates

The labor market is too strong for the Fed to consider cutting rates as more inflation looms.

FED: Built Fed tough - for this reason

Even if he had enormous influence, it would be nearly impossible for Trump to upend the Fed.

FORECAST: Recession or Rates Go Up

The Fed may have to raise rates if we avoid a recession. But we're probably not going to be that lucky.

FED: March FOMC Preview

Policymakers may be sweating, but they won't show their cards in March.