A More Defensible Way Through the AI Buildout
Following capital recovery across the infrastructure stack to find an investment less dependent on AI’s most optimistic outcome
The Financial Pen
I capture flashes of market insight before they fade and share them here. Each month, I aim to publish two in-depth company or industry analyses, alongside a couple of pieces on the principles and frameworks that guide long-term investing
Live Last read · last published · next check
Latest posts
Rethinking Federal Contractors After AI
Federal contractors aren’t just selling hours. They also bear mission risk. Markets may have mispriced them by confusing replaceable effort with responsibility.
From Chickenjoy to Capital Allocation
Insight Series: What Jollibee reveals about brands rooted in one culture, the limits of their moats, and the role of capital allocation when growth hits a geographic boundary.
Variant Perception: The Mechanics of Expectation Gaps
Insight Series: Applying the method to a live microcap idea with a growing earnings base and an operating valuation below 5x adjusted EBITDA
A Tale of Two Drone Microcaps
How I’m underwriting two microcaps in the drone stack across procurement risk, cash runway, implied probabilities and entry-price discipline.
The Insight That Carried Disney
Insight Series: Inside Disney’s craft of turning shared experiences into a multi-generation franchise
Mispriced Well-Construction Economics
An asset-light well-construction micro-cap positioned where value may accrue as the DUC buffer disappears.
The Honest Witness
On What Can Only Be Learned Through Another Person
Industrial Rebuild: Betting on Scarce Aerospace and Defence Capacity
Three unloved franchises I’m accumulating while markets still discount the strategic value embedded in their backlogs
The Difference Between a Story and an Insight
The Insight Series: How investors mistake coherent narratives for genuine representational shifts