Lessons From Wins, Losses and a 2,045-Vote Oklahoma Runoff
What victories and losses have taught me about turning information into action
Data, Politics, and the Future
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Latest posts
When the Poll Isn’t Real
Median Strategies exposed a much bigger problem than fake polling.
America Is Atomizing. Campaigns Haven’t Caught Up.
The electorate is no longer just polarized. It is constantly reorganizing; and campaigns are still using tools built for a more stable world.
The End of the Campaign Consultant
Or perhaps more accurately, the reinvention of the campaign consultant.
The Campaign Dashboard of 2030
What two weeks in Alaska taught me about the future of campaigns.
The New Voter Indexes
Political science is moving beyond demographics; and campaigns that understand this first will define the next decade.
America at 250: Three Lenses for an Honest Conversation
Perspective, Principles and Purpose on Independence Day 2026
The Most Dangerous Person in Politics
The consultant who already knows the answer
The Slopaganda Election
The biggest threat from AI may not be misinformation; it may be our inability to distinguish genuine political movement from manufactured attention.
The Death of the Average Voter
Campaigns built around demographic averages will lose to campaigns built around behavioral clusters
The Volatility Problem
Why some polling leads collapse while others harden; and why most campaigns don’t know the difference.
The Persuadability Illusion
Why most campaigns are targeting the wrong voters; and wasting millions because they misunderstand persuasion