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Quantus Insights: Election forecasting, economic and political analysis, commentary, and data-driven insights.

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Florida GOP Primary: Our Final Read Before Election Day

The polling points to Donalds, but the more interesting questions are his final margin and the battle beneath him.

Why Russell Fry’s Endorsement Matters

Darline Graham already had the advantage. Fry may have made Ralph Norman’s path even narrower.

When Do Midterm Polls Start to Tell the Truth?

A look at 2014, 2018, and 2022 suggests August can reveal the political environment, but mid-October is a much better guide to the final national House vote.

Graham Leads With South Carolina Primary Days Away

Trump-backed interim senator holds a clear advantage, while Norman, Fry and Sanford remain locked in a three-way contest for second place.

Donalds Dominates Florida’s Republican Primary

Trump’s endorsement, unrivaled name recognition, and a consolidated populist electorate have placed the congressman in a commanding position.

The Democratic Year—Moderated

Structural conditions favor Democrats, while recent polling suggests a solid advantage rather than a developing wave.

After the Loss: The 200-Seat Gravity of the Modern House

From historic landslides to today’s narrow majorities, 200 seats has become the modern midterm benchmark.

The Inflation Break America Needed

June’s CPI Report Was More Than a Drop in Gas Prices

Presidential Exposure Model: July 2026 Midterms Outlook

Measuring Republican Midterm Exposure Through Approval, Partisan Swing, and Coalition Size

North Carolina 2026: Democrats Hold Early Edge

In a state where neither party gets much room for error, Democrats begin the cycle with a small but meaningful edge.