Brazil - Lula is the favorite, but here are seven ways he could lose - August 2026
The economy, scandals, or a sudden surge by a third candidate lead the list.
Latin America Risk Report
Daily analysis of politics and security in Latin America.
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Other forms of US leverage - August 2026
The Trump administration’s tools in the hemisphere go well beyond sanctions and military ops. Visa restrictions have become a preferred option.
Two maps on the hemispheric war on cartels
Trying to keep track
Peru - Fujimori goes populist and gets a political honeymoon
The economy, security, and scandals may all work against her in the coming months, but she has gotten the start to her term that she wanted and needed.
Friday Reading List - 14 August 2026
Despite just spending two weeks in Mexico eating amazing things, I had a burrito at a chain restaurant in the DC area for lunch yesterday. Judge that however you will.
Perception vs statistics on homicides
I made a chart
Comments on US policy in Cuba and Venezuela - August 2026
Not very organized today
The political impacts of Colombia’s earthquake - August 2026
Trying to go beyond, "it depends on how the new president manages it."
Travelogue - Seven more thoughts on Mexico City
I stayed in "the bubble," took a lot of Uber rides and wandered around a few neighborhoods and markets.
Friday Reading List - 7 August 2026
After eating tacos for over a week without a problem, I got food poisoning at a fancy Uruguayan restaurant in Mexico City. It always happens where you least suspect....
Argentina - Economic Notes - August 2026
Milei's defenders don't want to hear this, but for many of Argentina's citizens, the economy felt better under CFK.
The Orange Drift - August 2026 update
Depending on Brazil's election, this map may be the high-water mark of the trend.
Colombia - Petro's final week and the insurrection threat
Colombia's president tries to delegitimize his successor and plans for protests. The big concern is that ADLE may welcome the fight.
Mexico - Another travelogue - August 2026
Seaweed, pirates, and comments on Mexico's security and tourism economy.
Friday Reading List - 31 July 2026
AI is getting good at building a reading list. But not the reading list. I still needed to add dozens of links and delete a bunch of others. So much for the robots taking my job.
Where is the new right-wing ALBA?
On this week's WPR column and some potential thoughts on how I could be wrong.
Lula and Sheinbaum still push back effectively - July 2026
Breaking news: Brazil and Mexico are bigger and different than their smaller neighbors
Mexico - Tren Maya travelogue - July 2026
Overbuilt, overstaffed, mega-infrastructure that successfully and comfortably got me from point A to point B on time.
On using AI to write newsletters
My thoughts on the process of co-writing with AI while keeping what is published human.
Friday Reading List - 24 July 2026
More summer travel ahead
Chile - Kast’s economy - July 2026
Chile's president will get his tax and economic reform passed by the Congress. That may not be enough to save the economy and his approval ratings.
US Policy Odds and Ends - 22 July 2026
Short comments on various issues around Latin America (mostly Venezuela) rather than one long analysis
Colombia - ADLE’s first legislative defeat
The Petro-Uribe alliance is weird and unlikely to hold, but demonstrates that President-elect de la Espriella doesn’t have guaranteed control of Congress.