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The Skeptical Investor Newsletter

Welcome to the Skeptical Investor Newsletter. A frank, hopefully insightful, dive into real estate and financial markets. From one real estate investor to another.

andreasmueller.substack.comSource feed ↗20 episodes

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A Louisiana Teacher Just Got a $50,000 Bonus... From a Data Center

Everything you've heard is backwards. They lower power bills, sip water, fund schools, and fill rentals. This is the mythbusting deep dive, for real estate investors.

The G-Shaped Economy

Covid, war, tariffs, an oil shock: this economy has taken every punch and kept upright. The doubters keep losing. A look at the robust G-shaped consumer. Plus, rents are back on the incline.

The Housing Market Is Frozen, Not Broken

Existing-home sales have been stuck near 4 million for three years. Here is what finally breaks the ice, and what it means for buyers, sellers, and landlords.

The Apartment Glut Is Going Keto

The apartment glut is clearing, builders are cutting prices, and Congress just passed a housing law that won’t do much of anything.

The Curious Case of the American Non-Worker

A record number of Americans have stopped working. Payrolls came in at 57,000, revisions erased another 74,000, and the BEA is about to rewrite the Fed's favorite inflation gauge.

Article #100: A Multifamily Special + A Report Card (and a Gift)

It's my 100th article! This week is a multifamily special, my top 25 deal points for buying a multifamily property. Plus a gift.

Insurance: Your Premium Went Up. Their Profit Tripled.

Insurers just had one of their most profitable years ever, right as your renewal bill hit a record share of your mortgage payment. Plus: why Nashville’s soft market may be a closing window.

Eggs Are Cheap Again. Electricians, Not So Much.

Construction needs 349,000 more workers this year. Here’s what a permanent labor shortage does to supply, replacement cost, and rents.

Why I Think the Next Fed Move Is a Cut

Alan Greenspan let the 1990s economy cook on a productivity bet. Will Warsh hold the line like Greenspan did? + Why AI is NOT a job killer.

Inflation Reset.

Oil/energy prices floating back down to earth. It's time to think about what's next.

The $6.6 Billion Bet on Nashville

Cranes up, jobs up, inflation cooling, and a record tourism year.

Revenge of the Seller's Market

For two years the story was a for-sale glut and a buyer's market. This week the data flipped negative, and almost nobody noticed.

The New Fed Wants It Both Ways.

The new Fed Chair walked into the White House on Friday and promised lower inflation and stronger growth. The bond market is still pricing zero cuts in 2026. Both can’t be true.

Forget Inflation. Watch the Labor Market.

Inflation is priced in, labor will drive interest rates from here.

Jerome Powell’s Last Friday.

Warsh Takes the Chair & Concessions Take the Rent.

Starbucks Just Bet $100 Million on Nashville.

Keep your eye on the Sun Belt, its early innings.

Energy Prices have peaked. Rents Are Turning. Nashville Is Booming.

Energy prices are elevated, but rents are starting to turn, builders are pulling back, and demand for housing is picking up again.

Headlines Scream Crisis. Data Say Calm.

Jobs, spending, rents, and the $1.5T CRE debt wall — what's actually happening under the noise.

The 10 Renovations You Need In Your Rentals

Make your rental a comfy home for your residents + boost profits.

Iran and the US Economy: Signal or Noise?

We are witnessing the start of a US manufacturing renaissance.