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The Baseball Nerd

The baseball analytics newsletter built on proprietary models. Advanced stats, breakout potential, fantasy baseball edge. Numbers, Not Feelings.

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The Top Five Teams in Each League are Not The Same as The Standings Show

Park-adjusted hitting, run prevention with the luck stripped out, and defensive value, weighted and blended for all 30 teams. Full breakdowns for both leagues are up now. Here's what stood out before

The National League's best team isn't in question. Its biggest weakness might surprise you.

I built a weighted model to rank the top five teams in both leagues, and the results are surprising

The American League's best team traded away its best pitcher. It's still in the top five.

I built a weighted model to rank the top five teams in both leagues, and the results are surprising

Doing the same thing, consistently, is not always a good thing

Two months, the same sentence, the same problem. Read the transcripts.

What's Wrong With Merrill Kelly? A 2026 Collapse the ERA Is Still Hiding

Six runs at Fenway on Tuesday, pulled in the fifth. The box score already looks bad, and the numbers underneath say it is about to look worse.

The Peak Cools: The CSR Board Through the Dog Days of August

Misiorowski gives a little back for the third week running, Chase Burns cracks the NL five, and Merrill Kelly takes over the worst ERA-to-expected gap in baseball.

Yahoo Found Abimelec Ortiz After His First Homer. We Found Him Nine Months Ago.

We called Ortiz in November. We called Schanuel in July. The board has four more names nobody has written about yet.

Everyone Is Wrong About Why Bullpens Blow Up. Here's What the Pattern Actually Says.

The Walk Column, the Leverage Index, and the Nightly Failure Mode Nobody Is Naming.

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A Rookie Just Made History in His First Three At-Bats. History Says That's Usually Where the Story Ends.

A Sunday Story about a $1,000 contract, a two-homer debut off a Hall of Famer, and how one Cuban shortstop turned one unforgettable afternoon into three championships.

Alex Bregman Is Not The Story. These Five Guys Are.

Bases Gained found the five biggest surprises of the last two weeks. Only one of them has a name you'd know

Everyone Is Reading the CBS Waiver Wire Article Right Now. It is missing some information.

Our model flagged these pickups in July. CBS spent this week ranking call-ups. The gaps haven't closed.

Everyone Won the Trade Deadline Five Minutes After It Ended. Then Baseball Started.

The Receipts Are Already Coming In. Boston Looks Right. San Diego Looks Exposed. And One Team the Standings Are Ignoring Might Be the Best Story in Baseball.

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He Was a Hero Three Separate Times

A Sunday Story about the MVP of the 1914 World Series who served in both World Wars and never once chased the fame.

The Real Playoff Push, and the One Team Faking It

A full-season split of every MLB team's hitting, pitching, and defense reveals which 2026 second-half turnarounds are real, and which front offices don't believe their own numbers.