Knightian Uncertainty Dispatch — May 2026
Four new papers + two essentials on shifting forecast errors
Modeling An Unforeseeable Future
New economic thinking that acknowledges that the future differs from the past in unforeseeable ways
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Knightian Uncertainty Dispatch — April 2026
Four new papers + one essential on what structural change means for monetary policy
Knightian Uncertainty Dispatch — March 2026
Four new papers + one essential on the revolution in central bank forecasting
The Quiet Revolution in Central Bank Forecasting
Central banks are abandoning fan charts and embracing scenarios — but the theoretical foundation is still missing
Risk vs. Knightian Uncertainty: Why the Distinction Matters
The theoretical foundation for why shocks and structural changes require different responses
What Should a Forecast Look Like When the World Might Be Changing?
When the uncertainty is about which story we're in, a single forecast isn't enough
AI as a Research Collaborator, Not a Paper Mill
The debate about AI in research has focused on speed. I think it’s missing the most important part: a room full of experts while you think.
From Gatekeeping to Curation: How AI Will Restructure Peer Review
Peer review has always done two jobs. AI only makes one of them obsolete.
Knightian Uncertainty Dispatch — February 2026
Four new papers + one essential on how central banks are rethinking uncertainty, communication, and policy when the future may not look like the past
Building the Ultimate Python Package for Structural Change — With Claude Code
I needed to code a statistical test for a paper revision. Three days later, I had a working toolkit — and a roadmap to something much bigger.