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AI Horizon Forecast

Explaining complex AI models as clear as daylight. Focusing on time series and latest AI research.

aihorizonforecast.substack.comRSS feed ↗20 episodes

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Latest episodes

Nori-30M: A Small Open Model That Beats Tuned CatBoost at Regression

A head-to-head regression benchmark of Nori-30M, TabPFN-3, TabICL-v2, and TabFM against tuned and untuned CatBoost.

Do Tabular Foundation Models Actually Beat CatBoost? - Part 2

A head-to-head benchmark of TabPFN-3, TabICL-v2, and TabFM against tuned and untuned CatBoost.

Tabular Foundation Models Are Not Plug-and-Play - Part 1

The pretrained models beating gradient boosting come with hidden settings. A guide to TabPFN-3, TabICL-v2, and TabFM

Toto-2.0: 5 Silent Failure Modes to Avoid for Full Performance (+Tutorial)

Toto-2.0 is a top-tier foundation model - here is how to actually leverage its full potential

Toto-2.0: Time Series Forecasting Finally Scales Like LLMs

5 model variants, one training recipe, clean scaling from 4M to 2.5B

Toto-2.0: Learning to Forecast Sparse Time Series Without Training

Understanding, benchmarking, and using a foundation model for sparse and intermittent time series forecasting without training

Toto-2.0: The Upgraded Time-Series Foundation Model (+Retail Forecasting Tutorial)

Datadog's new open-weight SOTA model tested on a retail forecasting project.

Time Series Foundation Models: A Deep Dive into Strengths and Limitations

What works, what doesn’t, and how to make them work beyond the hype

TabICLV2 for Time Series Forecasting: A Complete Tutorial

Turning a leading tabular foundation model into a zero-shot forecaster.

How to Build an AI Document Assistant App with Docling and LangChain

Part 3 on integrating a chatbot with your personal document collection

Part 2: Making Documents Searchable with Vector Stores and Retrieval

Building RAG pipelines with Chroma and LangChain

Docling: Extracting Structured Data from PDFs and Documents

Part 1 on integrating a chatbot with your personal document collection

MOIRAI-2 Technical Report: Discussing the Recent Advances in Foundation Time Series Models

Exploring the upgraded foundation time series model.

Chronos-2: Cold-Start Forecasting with Short Histories and No Training — A Practical Tutorial

An interesting case with the Chronos-2 foundation model

Chronos-2: Multivariate Zero-Shot Forecasting with External Covariates

Amazon Research's upgraded model smashed the benchmarks

Chronos-2: Zeroshot Multivariate Forecasting with Covariates — A Practical Tutorial for Retail Forecasting

The popular foundation forecasting model received an upgrade!

TimesFM-2.5 + External Covariates: A Practical Retail Forecasting Tutorial

Enhancing the popular foundation model with external covariates

Transformers, Time Series, and the Myth of Permutation Invariance

Beware the false prophets of forecasting!

Adapting Time-Series Foundation Models at Inference Time

TimesFM-ICF: Letting foundation models learn as they predict!

TimesFM-2.5: Hands-On Tutorial with Google's Upgraded Forecasting Model

Google's foundation forecasting model received its 3rd upgrade!