Brief #14: The AI labs measure how AI impacts work and suggest solutions
Anthropic drafts the safety net for AI displacement, while OpenAI measures the shift from chatting to delegating
Windfall Trust
A nonprofit dedicated to guiding society through the AI economic transition. We publish new articles, a recurring newsletter, and thought-pieces from experts across the AI economics space.
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Brief #13: AI firms are spending as if a boom is coming
Taking investment data seriously suggests a productivity boom, while data-driven automation could lead to stagnating wages
Brief #12: How Trump and Sanders would take AI stocks
AI equity taxes, remote work-driven reductions in junior hiring, and how AI fails to ship code.
Brief #11: Mismeasuring productivity and agents
What inflation teaches us about AI’s uplift and the lack of self-assessment of AI agents
When AI Grows the Economy but Shrinks the Tax Base
Discussing the potential for powerful, productivity-enhancing AI systems to erode tax bases through labour displacement.
Brief #10: Why AI’s impact depends on organizations and demand
The gap between what AI can do and what it actually changes.
Brief #9: MIT researchers validate fast AI capabilities
Two new measurement efforts point to rapid, broad gains in capability, while a major survey shows economists still expect only moderate macro disruption.
Introducing the Windfall Policy Atlas
A comprehensive overview of policy proposals to respond to the economic disruption from transformative AI.
Brief #8: Why AI R&D automation could lead to accelerating growth
How the economic effects of both AI R&D and production automation might be accelerating.
Brief #7: AI cuts labor demand, but not wages — 39 countries show why expertise matters
Evidence for reduced hiring is clearer than for wage compression, but economists agree on policies that work regardless of AI's trajectory.