
#207: Evidence
Narratives meet numbers. What OTA stocks are doing in the AI era, the case against AI job doom, job board conversion rates, the real cost of agentic search, and a prediction I made 20 months ago that just came true.
Connects travel to the broader forces shaping technology, capital, and human behavior.
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Narratives meet numbers. What OTA stocks are doing in the AI era, the case against AI job doom, job board conversion rates, the real cost of agentic search, and a prediction I made 20 months ago that just came true.

The surface reading of this World Cup, this M&A wave, this jobs data, is rarely the real one.

Hotel AI scores, LinkedIn's citation edge, and the pizza-flight trick.

How a bootstrapped, profitable API company is becoming the backbone for AI-driven travel distribution.

Interpretation runs through much of this issue. How we read a metric, a market, a consumer, or a framework determines what we build, how we compete, and what we believe to be true.

Several things in this edition are not what they seem.

A few stories in this newsletter are about gaps. What many predicted for Google hasn’t played out that way. Founders tend to lead with conviction, while hired leaders often play it safe. The most valuable travelers are not the ones most products are built for. And Airbnb’s formal loyalty score doesn’t line up with its NPS.

Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts. — William Bruce Cameron

Many travel companies grow by buying traffic. A few grow because customers do the work for them. This issue is about what creates that second kind of growth.

The world is more interesting than the headlines suggest, and the people who see that don't wait for consensus. The pessimists have been wrong about every transformative technology in history. They were wrong about the camera, the bicycle, books, manned flight, music, radio, the internet, and they’re wrong about AI. New technologies expand the world, and the gap between the catastrophist and the…