Background - I was trying to figure out why Matlab wouldn’t let me add an important Mapping addition so I could rerun some tests on global Tropical Cyclone data (ADV-HURSAT). At the same time, a friend said that China was really making huge advances in renewables, and this prompted a diversion. I thought it would be a short diversion, but I was wrong. I do plan to be back writing about TCs soon.
In the meantime - I’ve written a cluster of posts on renewables and electricity markets — starting with a broader look (including China and Europe), then drilling into South Australia as the most useful real-world laboratory for “high renewables.”
If you’re new to this series, the best way to read it is in time order. Each post stands alone, but together they build a clear picture of why “cheap renewables” doesn’t automatically produce cheap electricity, and why the system ends up paying for flexibility, backup, and wiring.
Below is an index of the recent posts, in earliest → latest order, with a short summary for each.
A look at how easy it is to tell very different stories using the same data. China’s renewables growth is huge — but so is coal. This post is about absolute numbers vs percentages, and why PR charts can mislead.
Germany’s domestic generation mix: coal down hard, nuclear to zero, wind/solar up massively — but the interesting question is what fills the gaps. This post is the “big picture” before following the power across borders.
Interconnectors as “extended grid storage”: Germany’s imports, who supplies them, and why cross-border wiring quietly does three jobs at once — sharing cheap generation, sharing backup, and sharing weather luck.
A deep dive into the physical bottleneck: transmission. Spain can be “anti-Germany” meteorologically, but moving power across borders is a multi-decade, multi-billion euro relay race.
UK generation from 2015–2024: coal collapses, wind surges, nuclear declines, and gas stays central. A simple data-first view that sets up the follow-up question: what does “renewables success” mean in system terms?
A continuation that digs into the “how”: what the UK is leaning on (imports, gas, biomass accounting, etc.), and how a high-renewables narrative changes once you include full system constraints.
A comparative look at what consumers experience — the cost stack, the trade-offs, and why “more renewables” doesn’t map neatly to “lower bills” without flexibility and wiring.
South Australia is the cleanest real-world lab for high renewables because it has huge rooftop solar, lots of wind, and tight interconnection. This post sets the stage: what changed from 2015–2025, and why the grid behaves differently from fossil-era intuition.
Midday prices go negative; evening prices spike to extreme levels. This post explains the “canyon curve” and why wholesale volatility doesn’t translate into cheap household bills. Best entry point if you only read one SA piece.
Batteries aren’t being built to store “a day” of electricity — they’re being built because the market pays for fast response in the shoulder periods. This post shows what batteries actually contribute on the grid, by time of day.
How the NEM rewards speed: 5-minute settlement, FCAS “twitch” markets, negative price behaviour, and why grid-forming inverters matter.
Negative prices aren’t a glitch — they’re how the market clears surplus supply when some generators can’t or won’t stop. Coal/gas cycling economics, wind/solar incentives, and why negative bids can still be rational.
The “second market” that helped fund renewables: LGCs. Who pays, how the cost shows up in bills, why LGC values collapsed (because the scheme worked), and what newer mechanisms are trying to do instead.
A more technical post: why thermal plants can’t simply shut down at 8am and restart at 4pm without cost and risk. The physical side of the negative-price story — ramps, starts, cycling, and why batteries are a useful bridge.
If you only read one: The Pricing Paradox
If you want the SA market story: Pricing Paradox → Batteries in SA → Market Machinery → Negative Price Puzzle → Invisible Renewables Market → Solar Lunch Break
If you like infrastructure + geography: Germany Keeping the Lights On → 1,500km Relay Race
If you want “costs to consumers”: Germany/UK/France: Price of Energy Transition
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