Will the AI boom continue? Forecasting the trajectory of the AI industry
We asked experts and superforecasters to predict the value of semiconductor and software stock indicies, investment in data centers, and revenue growth at OpenAI and Anthropic.
Forecasting Research Institute
Using the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high-stake issues
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Forecasting the Impacts of Anthropic's ASL-3 Safeguards on Biosecurity Risks
We ran a forecasting study to understand experts' views on the effectiveness of Anthropic's deployment standards at mitigating biosecurity risks.
Experts Forecast Rapid AI Progress Could Bring Health and Wealth Without Happiness
In Wave 10 of LEAP, forecasters share their predictions on the potential benefits from AI, including fewer deaths, longer life spans, and more wealth. Plus, we explore how much people value AI.
Forecasting AI Cyber Risks and Capabilities
Results from a 2025 pilot study investigating the impact of AI capabilities on near-term cybersecurity risk.
AI models have likely reached parity with superforecasters on ForecastBench
New results from the ForecastBench leaderboard suggest the gap between frontier AI and elite human forecasters is closing.
Can We Identify Better and Worse Forecasters Using Easy-to-Resolve Questions?
A brief exploration of using quick questions to assess forecaster accuracy.
Forecasting Major Risks from AI
In Wave 9 of LEAP, we gathered forecasts about catastrophic risk from AI, major harm events, democratic backsliding, cybercrime, and asked when a major government will restrict an AI model release.
Can You Judge a Forecast by Its Rationale?
What we learned from using LLMs to score the reasoning behind 55,000+ forecasts.
Experts and Superforecasters Update Their AI Timelines
In Wave 8 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel we asked panelists to forecast AI's overall impact on human society, AGI timelines, near-term progress on METR's time horizon benchmark, and more.
When Will Robots Pass the "Coffee Test"? Expert Forecasts on the Future of Robotics
In Wave 7 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, we asked for forecasts about robots in factories, hospitals, and our homes as well as the U.S. labor share and Amazon's sales per distribution employee.
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy.