Vignettes from my life, romance math, Saudi Arabia vs United Arab Emirates, and cheap Chinese watches || Forecasting newsletter III/2026
Purveying high quality decorrelated tokens
Forecasting
A monthly newsletter on prediction markets and forecasting platforms: what they're up to, where they are going, and what they should be doing.
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Latest posts
AI 2040, forecasting founders, capital allocation, the end of OpenPhilanthropy's forecasting programme || Forecasting newsletter
AI 2040 // Forecasting projects and founders I feel excited about // Capital allocatioon // The End of OpenPhilanthropy's forecasting grantmaking programme
Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience
Create 100 questions on the future of AI on Polymarket, each with $1M liquidity, to produce common knowledge on likely future paths.
Feedback loops for forecasting funding, builders' programs, corporate forecasting || Forecasting newsletter #12/2025
Editorial
Prediction market gold rush, legal drama, AI forecasters on the horizon? || Forecasting newsletter #11/2025
What I feel curious about this month
National security professionals again found not to be calibrated, Swift Centre on UK winter blackout, adj.news' US Political Future Index || Forecasting newsletter #10/2025
Highlights
Opportunity markets, AI forecasters, Polymarket’s builders program || Forecasting newsletter #9/2025
Highlights
Timeline of all Manifold markets, Polymarket buys US exchange, deceitful ex-Senator lobbies CFTC | Forecasting newslettter #8/2025
Highlights
Humans still crush bots at forecasting, scribble-based forecasting, Kalshi reaches $2B valuation | Forecasting newslettter #7/2025
and possible big incoming tax hike coming to US-based bettors (a).
Forecasting newsletter #6/2025: Manifold structured debt, Manifest soon & ongoing Kalshi lawfare
and /r/forecasting subreddit resuscitated