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• Forecasting

  A monthly newsletter on prediction markets and forecasting platforms: what they're up to, where they are going, and what they should be doing.

  10 posts · theirs

Lately

• Vignettes from my life, romance math, Saudi Arabia vs United Arab Emirates, and cheap Chinese watches || Forecasting newsletter III/2026

  Forecasting · 2026-06-05

• AI 2040, forecasting founders, capital allocation, the end of OpenPhilanthropy's forecasting programme || Forecasting newsletter

  Forecasting · 2026-04-17

• Aggressively reorienting the forecasting community towards AI resilience

  Forecasting · 2026-02-09

• Feedback loops for forecasting funding, builders' programs, corporate forecasting || Forecasting newsletter #12/2025

  Forecasting · 2025-12-15

• Prediction market gold rush, legal drama, AI forecasters on the horizon? || Forecasting newsletter #11/2025

  Forecasting · 2025-11-13

• National security professionals again found not to be calibrated, Swift Centre on UK winter blackout, adj.news' US Political Future Index || Forecasting newsletter #10/2025

  Forecasting · 2025-10-13

• Opportunity markets, AI forecasters, Polymarket’s builders program || Forecasting newsletter #9/2025

  Forecasting · 2025-09-11

• Timeline of all Manifold markets, Polymarket buys US exchange, deceitful ex-Senator lobbies CFTC | Forecasting newslettter #8/2025

  Forecasting · 2025-08-07

• Humans still crush bots at forecasting, scribble-based forecasting, Kalshi reaches $2B valuation | Forecasting newslettter #7/2025

  Forecasting · 2025-07-05

• Forecasting newsletter #6/2025: Manifold structured debt, Manifest soon & ongoing Kalshi lawfare

  Forecasting · 2025-06-04

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