The Market is Pricing Payment Certainty, Not GPUs
Stress in GPU-backed debt, and where a compute forward curve actually matters
Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
A semi-daily report about the practical, real-world applications of AI, with a dash of speculation
Live Last read · last published · next check
Latest posts
A GPU-Hour Isn't a Commodity If You Need Four of Them
GPU rental markets look liquid one machine at a time. Ask for a usable cluster, and much of that market disappears
Closed Source AI Models are not Trojan Horses
Satya Nadella is right that enterprises should protect their learning loops. But the strongest risk is dependency, not covert training on protected customer prompts
The Compute Market has Multiple Views on Future Compute Prices
When future compute prices are determined by private offtake agreements, the result is that every compute seller and buyer has a different view about future demand for compute
Compute Futures Won't Make Compute Fungible
The market will work if it can make compute's differences visible, measurable, and tradable
CoreWeave Piles on More Debt
DDTL 5.5 is the newest financing structure
AI 2040 Mistakes Technical Legibility for Political Feasibility
Please see relevant disclosures here.
Reading Hugging Face’s Download Distribution as a Signal About Compute Markets
Understanding how demand for open-weights models affects demand for compute
Some Bitcoin Mines can be AI Data Centers; Most Can't
Converting a bitcoin mine to an AI data center is not as easy as is commonly thought
Compute Derivatives Basis Risk Primer
What risks are there for buyers and sellers of compute derivatives?