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| Canada as the 51st state? April 1, 2025 | |
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President Trump likes to refer to Canada as "the 51st state." What would Canada joining the Union actually do to American politics? Answer: The Democrats would immediately take control of the House of Representatives, and would be guaranteed the House majority and Speakership until 2032, and probably afterwards too. How come? Well, it's all in the Constitution and U.S. legal history....
Canada's population is just over 40 million, about the same as California's, which entitles Canada to 52 Representatives, the same as California. The number of seats in the House, currently 435, would temporarily increase to 487. The increase would stick until the 2030 decennial census; the 2032 election would reapportion all House seats nationwide, to reduce Canada's seats, and California's seats, to about 46 each, while reducing the number of House seats in dozens of other states. Seizing the House majority assumes that the majority of Canada's Representatives would join the Democratic caucus. That assumption comes from the makeup of Canada's current House of Commons, which has 126 conservative members and 212 liberal members. Splitting Canada's 52 U.S. House seats in that same ratio means 19 would caucus with the House Republicans, and 33 would caucus with the House Democrats. The current partisan split in the 435-seat U.S. House is 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats . With the Canadian addition, the 487-seat U.S. House would have 239 Republicans and 248 Democrats. That flips a 5-seat Republican majority to a 9-seat Democratic majority. That sort of systemic majority would be hard to overcome in the elections of 2026, 2028, or 2030. A Democratic majority in the House means the current Speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) would be replaced by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the current Minority Leader. And all Committee chairs -- currently all Republicans -- would be replaced by Democratic Committee chairs. Those chairs set the agenda in each Committee, and hence decide which bills get heard or not. President Trump's agenda needs the House to introduce and hear bills -- Democrats would then have a powerful blocking mechanism. Why do we say "Democrats would IMMEDIATELY take control"? Because there would be 52 special elections, in each district of the new state of Canada. After special elections, the winner is seated immediately -- there's no delay until the next January. Each winner would be up for re-election in November 2026, but they would be full members of Congress in the intervening time. Canadians have a strong incentive to hold the 52 special elections as soon as possible after Canada is declared a state -- something like a one-month campaign -- certainly NOT a long delay until 2026. You can look to history to see how this occurred the last time new states were admitted to the Union -- that's Alaska and Hawaii in 1959. Alaska was admitted to the Union on Jan. 3, 1959, and its first Representative, Ralph Rivers (D-AK), was elected that same day. Hawaii was admitted to the Union on Aug. 21, 1959, and its first Representative, Daniel Inouye (D-HI), was elected that same day. Those Representatives were both re-elected in the November 1960 general election, the only U.S. House election in history to elect 437 members. In 1962, reapportionment from the 1960 census took effect, and the number of Representatives was reduced back to 435, where it has held since. Astute observers might look at the physical size of the Congressional office buildings, where each of the 535 members of the House and Senate have office space. A sudden increase to 589 members suggests that the campaign slogan of the new Canadian members of Congress might be, "Where would we all sit, eh?" |
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| 2025-2026 elections: Feb. 28th, 2025 | |
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| Early State of the State Speeches: January - February 2025 | |
| Governors' State of the State addresses take place mostly in January through March. Here, we highlight differences between the "left" and "right" stances on key issues -- with Democrat-vs-Republican indicated whether they're on the left or the right.... | ||
| Left-leaning stance | Description of the stances | Right-leaning stance |
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| Gov. Jared Polis (D, CO): Jan. 9: Hope for legal pathways to citizenship for DREAMers |
Legal protection/prosecution of undocumented aliens | Gov. Ron DeSantis (R, FL): Mar. 4: I t is now a crime to enter Florida illegally |
| Gov. Maura Healey (D, MA): Jan. 16: Immigrants who work and pay taxes deserve a path forward |
How to deal with immigrants who are here? | Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R, NH): Jan. 9: We need to ban sanctuary policies in our state |
| Gov. Daniel McKee (D, RI): Jan. 15: Let's finally enact a ban on assault weapons |
Limit or expand gun rights? | Gov. Kristi Noem (R, SD): Jan. 14: Defended our Second Amendment more than any other state |
| Gov. Mike Kehoe (R, MO): Jan. 28: Support alternatives to abortion with $4M in new funding |
Restrictions of alternatives to abortion? | Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R, NH): Jan. 9: I will veto any further restrictions to abortion access |
| Gov. Tony Evers (D, WI): Jan. 22: Will veto any bill that makes Wisconsin less inclusive to our LGBTQ kids |
Transgender and LGBTQ rights | Gov. Kay Ivey (R, AL): Feb. 5: There are only two genders: Male and female |
| Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D, MI): Feb. 26: Let's make the largest housing investment in state history |
Housing affordability and the American Dream | Gov. Bill Lee (R, IN): Feb. 10: $60 million Starter Home Revolving Loan Fund |
| Gov. Kathy Hochul (D, NY): Jan. 14: I'm calling for a sweeping middle-class income tax cut |
Who should get tax cuts? Middle class or everyone? | Gov. Phil Scott (R, VT): Jan. 9: I say all the time: we need more taxpayers, not more taxes |
| Gov. Jared Polis (D, CO): Jan. 9: Allow faith based partners to build housing we need |
Faith-based initiatives | Gov. Brad Little (R, ID): Jan. 6: Being an American means freedom; self-reliance; faith in God |
| Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R, AR): Jan. 14: Divest state resources from Communist China |
Trade war vs. engaging economically with China | Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D, MI): Feb. 26: We know saying no to Canada means saying yes to China |
| Gov. Tina Kotek (D, OR): Jan. 13: The relentless march of climate change tests our resolve |
Energy production vs. global warming | Gov. Greg Gianforte (R, MT): Jan. 13: We need to unleash all-of-the-above energy production |
| Gov. Andy Beshear (D, KY): Jan. 8: Working to prepare our commonwealth for medical cannabis |
Marijuana is still the drug topic of choice, not fentanyl | Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R, VA): Jan. 13: The dangers of marijuana use continue to grow |
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| 119th Congress sworn in: Republicans: Jan. 3rd, 2025 | |
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The Speaker of the House is the first vote after being sworn in; Mike Johnson (R-LA) was re-elected.
The Republicans won the Speakership vote because the Republicans hold a 220-215 majority in the House of Representatives (and almost all vote along party lines for Speaker).
There are 37 new Democratic members of Congress, and 35 new Republican members of Congress -- in other words, the Democrats gained a couple of seats compared to the 118th Congress. The Republicans had a majority of Congressional seats larger than the Democratic gains, so the Republicans kept their House majority. The Republicans also hold a narrow Senate majority of 53-47, having gained net seats in the November 2024 election. That's called a "trifecta": Republicans hold a majority in both chambers of Congress, plus the presidency. The majority in each chamber of Congress determine Committee chairs, who then control the agenda of which bills get voted upon. | |
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| 119th Congress sworn in: Democrats: Jan. 3rd, 2025 | |
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Following are all of the new Democratic members of the House of Representatives (Republicans in a separate list).
The Congress convening for the two-year term from Jan. 3, 2025, through Jan. 3, 2027, is known as the 119th Congress.
"New member" means the member was not sworn in for the 118th Congress in January 2023. Some new members, marked "SPEL" for Special Election, did serve in the 118th Cnogress, but for a partial term. There will be several special elections in early 2025, for any member who resigns -- that applies to several House members who are nominated to serve in Trump's incoming Cabinet (the list appears below; see Nov. 13). When members of the House resign, the Governor of their state determines the timing of the special election (within a few months). When members of the Senate resign, the Governor of their state appoints a replacement to serve in the 119th Congress -- then a special election in November 2026 takes place for the remainder of the 6-year Senate term. Special elections also apply if a member of Congress resigns for any other reason -- which applies to Matt Gaetz (R-FL-4). Rep. Gaetz resigned from the 118th Congress in December 2024 when Trump nominated him for Attorney General, but Gaetz withdrew under Congressional investigation. Rep. Gaetz was sworn in to the 119th Congress on January 3, because he was re-elected in November 2024 -- but plans to resign from the 119th Congress also. OnTheissues will track all of the coming special elections, and Senate appointments, for early 2025, and throughout the 119th Congress. | |
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| Syria Rebellion: December 8th, 2024 | |
Where do the candidates stand on Syria? The rebellion wasn't part of the 2024 election campaign, but many candidates and incoming Trump Administration officials have offered opinions over the many years of the Syrian Civil War. First some background (with links for more details) then the candidates' views:
JD VANCE: Trump said "no" when a lot of them wanted a ridiculous war including Syria (Oct 2024) Kamala HARRIS: US-Iraq partnership role after Defeat ISIS coalition (Feb 2024) Donald TRUMP: I beat ISIS in literally three months; knocked them out (Jan 2024) Nikki HALEY: Go hard after Iranian infrastructure in Syria & Iraq (Dec 2023) Donald TRUMP: Withdrew from Syria, but left soldiers to keep the oil (Feb 2020) Tulsi GABBARD: End the regime change war in Syria (Oct 2019) Tulsi GABBARD: Indefinite stay in Syria IS "endless war" (Oct 2019) Mike HUCKABEE: Eradicate ISIS like you would eradicate any cancer (Jan 2016) Bernie SANDERS: Work with Russia & Iran to get rid of Assad in Syria (Jan 2016) Chris CHRISTIE: There'll be no peace in Syria while Assad is in charge (Jan 2016) Marco RUBIO: Boots on ground in Syria; coordinate with Kurds (Nov 2015) Mike HUCKABEE: We are at war with radical Islam (Nov 2015) Kristi NOEM: Aid the Syrian opposition with training & equipment (Sep 2014) Marco RUBIO: Equip and train non-jihadist Syrians to topple Assad (Aug 2013) Joe BIDEN: Syria's Assad must go, but carefully vet who gets aid (Mar 2013) Joe BIDEN: Iran is isolated, and will be more so when Syria falls (Dec 2011) |
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| Incoming 2025 Cabinet: Nov. 13th-23rd, 2024 | |
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| Presidential Prediction: October 27th, 2024 | |
We predict a victory for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. But we make no prediction about the actual outcome of the presidential election, because that will be up to the "judicial vote," which has been the most relevant factor in the presidential election since "Bush v. Gore" in 2000. We base this prediction on the actions of the Harris/Walz campaign (which has focused on winning the electoral vote) compared to the actions of the Trump/Vance campaign (which has focused on minimizing their popular vote loss, and on winning the judicial vote)....
The Trump/Vance campaign has focused on turnout from their core supporters; maximizing their popular vote; and preparing for the "judicial vote" after November 5:
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| Vice Presidential debate: October 1st, 2024 | |
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| Presidential Debate: September 10th, 2024 | |
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| Democratic National Convention: Aug. 19-22, 2024 | |
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| Vice Presidential Books and Events: July 15th, 2024 | |
| Books and events with J.D. Vance: | Books and events with Kamala Harris: |
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| Biden and Trump Books and Events: July 4th, 2024 | |
| Books by and about Biden: | Books by and about Trump: |
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| Governor primaries: March 5 - Sept. 10, 2024 | |
Gubernatorial primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from gubernatorial primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
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| Senate primaries: March 5 - Sept. 10, 2024 | |
Senate primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from Senate primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
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| State of the States: Jan. 3 - April 10, 2024 | |
| Democratic Governors | Republican Governors |
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