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Meet your new Senators: Nov. 18th, 2008

Three Senate elections are still undecided, two weeks after the election; and two Senate appointments are pending:
• AK, being recounted (Sen. Stevens may be expelled from Senate for his felony conviction): Mayor Mark Begich (D) vs. Ted Stevens (R, incumbent)
• DE, Vice.Pres.-Elect Biden will resign his Senate seat, and Gov. Ruth Ann Minner will appoint his successor.
• GA, runoff scheduled for Dec. 2nd: Saxby Chambliss (R, incumbent) vs. Jim Martin (D)
• IL, Pres.-Elect Obama has resigned his Senate seat, and Gov. Rod Blagojevich will appoint his successor.
• MN, being recounted; scheduled completion Dec. 5th: Al Franken (DFL) vs. Norm Coleman (R, incumbent)

For all other Senate races, the new freshman class of the U.S. Senate is:
• CO: Rep. Mark Udall (D)
• ID: Governor Jim Risch (R)
• NE: Gov. Mike Johanns (R)
• NH: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
• NM: Rep. Tom Udall (D)
• SD: St. Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
• OR: St. Rep. Jeff Merkley (D)
• VA: Gov. Mark Warner (D)
  
• Summary (excluding the three undecided races):
  6 new Senate Democrats
  2 new Senate Republicans

Meet Your New Cabinet: Nov. 11th, 2008

Pres.-Elect Obama has selected Rahm Emanuel as his White House Chief of Staff. Emanuel will assist in selecting the president's Cabinet.

Subsequent Cabinet picks (will be filled in over time):
• U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D, IL-5) - Chief of Staff (announced Nov. 11)
• Eric Holder - Attorney General (announced Nov. 18)
• Former U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle (D, SD) - Secretary of Health & Human Services (announced Nov. 19)
• Gov. Janet Napolitano (D, AZ) - Secretary of Homeland Security (announced Nov. 20)

OnTheIssues Senate election prediction: Oct. 31st, 2008

We have a scary prediction for Halloween: Democrats will control the US House, the US Senate, and the US Presidency. We at OnTheIssues believe that hurts the "balance of powers", one of the core principles of the Constitution. But we believe this outcome will come about because the Republican Party did not learn the lesson of their 2006 election loss: the GOP continued pushing the same economic policy, and the same Iraq war policy, as before 2006, with the same predictable results in 2008. We believe that will be seen as an historical mistake; we only hope that the Republican Party will learn the lesson this time around, so that they can undo the gross imbalance of power in 2010.

Our predictions for Senate races in which the incumbent will lose, and an indication of the party of the incumbent seat: (see our full Senate page for details):
• AK, R: Mayor Mark Begich (D)
• CO, R: Rep. Mark Udall (D)
• ID, R: Governor Jim Risch (R)
• LA, D: John Neely Kennedy (R)
• ME, R: Rep. Tom Allen (D)
• MN, R: Al Franken (DFL)
• MS, R: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
• NE, R: Gov. Mike Johanns (R)
• NH, R: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
• NM, R: Rep. Tom Udall (D)
• SD, D: Joel Dykstra (R)
• VA, R: Gov. Mark Warner (D)
  
• Summary:
  8 Senate seats change from Republican to Democrat
  2 Senate seats change from Democrat to Republican

OnTheIssues Election Prediction: Oct. 29th, 2008

Before you read this, you should know that OnTheIssues has predicted wrong in every presidential election since we were founded in 1999. With that in mind, we predict a small landslide for Barack Obama next Tuesday. Our detailed state-by-state prediction appears below (click for larger image).

We predict that Obama will gain "blue states" over Kerry's 2004 results in the following categories:

1. BIDEN STATES: Joe Biden is most popular in OH and PA, and will gain those for Obama. He MAY gain FL for Obama, but McCain will focus there in the final week and take it, we predict.
2. BLACK STATES: Heavy African-American turnout in VA, NC, GA, and AR will turn those formerly red states blue.
3. MOUNTAIN STATES: Demographic changes in will turn MT, CO, and NM blue -- but these changes are "permanent", because they represent changes in the entire electorate, compared to category #2's changes, which only apply to Obama.
4. ELECTION SURPRISES: We predict that one electoral vote from Nebraska will go to Obama (they split their electoral votes by district; we predict the Omaha district will go for Obama while the rest of the state goes for McCain). We also predict that NH will go for McCain. NH is too libertarian to vote for Obama and too idiosyncratic to predict accurately. New Hampshirites have loved McCain since 1999.

.

OnTheIssues House election prediction: Oct. 21st, 2008

2008 appears destined to be as bad a year for the Republican Party in the US House as 1994 was for the Democratic Party. In 1994, Newt Gingrich oversaw a massive turnover of House seats based on the Contract With America. In 2008, the paired woes of the economy and the Iraq War will oust dozens of Republican House members, we predict. In 1994, the Republicans enjoyed a net gain of 54 House seats, capturing the majority by a 26-seat margin. In 2008, the Democrats may enjoy nearly as large a victory, expanding upon their existing 235-199 majority, a 36-seat margin.

The lists below indicate the vulnerable House seats for each party. (All challengers are detailed on our main House page). In summary, Republican incumbents have 58 vulnerable seats, while the Democrats have only 25 vulnerable seats. We categorize them as follows:

• Retirements: (incumbents: 29 GOP; 8 Dems)
  Predicted outcome: 17-22 GOP; 15-20 Dems (net loss to GOP: 7 to 22 seats).
  GOP House members are more likely to retire than their Democratic colleagues because they know they will return to a minority position (i.e., less power than when they were in the majority). In some cases, incumbents choose to retire rther than face a serious electoral challenge -- Republican members in mixed districts are more likely to retire for that reason too. We predict a higher-than-average party turnover on retirements because of the general public dissatisfaction with Congress. (Congress suffers from an approval rating even lower than Pres. Bush's record low!)
• Forced Retirements: (incumbents: 3 GOP; 1 Dem)
  Predicted outcome: 3 GOP; 1 Dem (net loss to GOP: 0 seats).
  Four incumbents lost their seats in contested primaries to fellow party members. We predict no party turnover here because all four are "safe seats" for the party in question -- the representative will change, but not the party. The one Democrat who lost his primary resigned (see "crybaby" category) and hence is in the Special Election category.
• Special Elections: (incumbents: 9 GOP; 6 Dems)
  Predicted outcome: 7-8 GOP; 7-8 Dems (net loss to GOP: 1 to 2 seats).
  15 members resigned or passed away during the 110th Congress. Some resigned to run for higher office; some resigned to capitalize as a "revolving door" lobbyist or corporate position; and some resigned as "crybabies" when they lost to a primary challenger. We denounce the lobbyists and crybabies by labelling them as such -- these are Members of Congress who did not fulfill their duty to serve their constituents. In fact, they cost their constituents a lot of money, because their resignations forced special elections, which the taxpayers must pay for. Since all of these replacement Members are already elected (some as late as June 2008), they face as low a likelihood of turnover as normal incumbents.
• Hotly Contested Elections: (incumbents: 16 GOP; 10 Dems)
  Predicted outcome: 5-10 GOP; 16-21 Dems (net loss to GOP: 6 to 11 seats).
  We review Congressional contests from the perspective of which organizations push for the election of challengers. Serious organizational support -- either in terms of volunteers or in terms of donations -- gives challengers a chance to oust incumbents. The supporting organizations include each party's Congressional committee; then range from the NRA and Club For Growth (on the right), to MoveOn.org and EMILY's list (on the left). We predict a higher-than-average party turnover in all contested races, because of voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. That dissatisfaction especially applies to Republican incumbents, because of voter dissatisfaction of Pres. Bush and his perceived responsibility for the negative direction of the country.
• Overall prediction: (incumbents: 57 GOP; 25 Dems)
  Surprises not counted above: 0 GOP; 1-2 Dems (net loss to GOP: 1 to 2 seats).
  Predicted outcome: 32-43 GOP; 39-50 Dems (net loss to GOP: 15 to 27 seats). We list below all the House races where we think it's possible for the challenger to win -- but we expect a couple of surprises too, most likely an unexpected Democratic victory in 1 or 2 districts. Stay tuned next week for our Senate and Presidential predictions!

Gen. Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama: Oct. 19, 2008

Colin Powell, the latest big figure to back Mr Obama, might have had a few kind words for his old friend and party colleague - but he's still voting for the Democrat. It is a decision which will come as a particular blow to John McCain. Mr Powell is, after all, a Republican, a lion of the party and a former general with impeccable national security credentials.

Powell served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the first Gulf War in 1991 and was then Secretary of State during George W Bush's first term in office. He is a big player in Washington and a contemporary of Mr McCain. His view that America needs the generational change which Mr Obama is in a position to offer will undermine his old friend's credibility.

The endorsement was offered during a thoughtful TV interview rather than on stage at an Obama rally. It is particularly damaging for the Republicans that Mr Powell suggested Sarah Palin's inclusion on the ticket and the negative tone of the campaign were major factors in his decision. The implication is clear - that his own party could have won his support, but failed to do so.

Mr Powell's views probably carry quite a bit of weight with the type of military veterans who are natural McCain voters and who distrust Obama - in part at least - because of his lack of international experience.

Third & final presidential debate: Oct. 15th, 2008

Excerpts from Change We Can Believe In: Posted Oct. 13, 2008

Second presidential debate: Oct. 7th, 2008

Vice presidential debate: Oct. 2th, 2008

First presidential debate: Sept. 26th, 2008

Senate candidate bill sponsorships: Posted Sept. 19th, 2008

Sarah Palin's record: Sep. 12, 2008

Interested in reading where Sarah Palin stands on the issues? The mainstream media does a great job telling all about Palin's high school nickname and details about her lipstick. In contrast, OnTheIssues.org has excerpted a complete record of Gov. Palin's issue stances from the following sources:

• ABC News interview with Charlie Gibson
• Speech at the Republican National Convention
• Press releases & proclamations from the Alaska Governor's Office
• Series of debates against Gov. Tony Knowles
• Candidate profiles in Anchorage Daily News
• 2006 gubernatorial campaign booklet

Joe Biden's Senate record: Sept. 5, 2008

Vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden has been in the U.S. Senate for 35 years. To understand Sen. Biden's priorities, one should look at his bill sponsorships. These bills are the issues that Biden cares most about, and on which he spends most of his legislative time and energy.

Crime:

• COPS Improvements Act (S.368/H.R.1700): Increase funding for "COPS ON THE BEAT" program (Jan-07)
• Second Chance Act (S.1060/H.R.1593): Reduce recidivism by giving offenders a Second Chance (Mar-07)
• Domestic Violence Attorney Network Act (S.1515/H.R.6088): Establish a domestic violence volunteer attorney network (May-07)

  Drugs:

• S.3351: Enhance interdiction by criminalizing unflagged submarines (Jul-08)
• Recognizing Addiction as a Disease Act (S.1011): Rename "Drug Abuse" institute as "Diseases of Addiction" (Mar-07)
• Drug Sentencing Reform & Kingpin Trafficking Act (S.1711): End harsher sentencing for crack vs. powder cocaine (Jun-07)

  Domestic policy:

• S.RES.30/H.CON.RES.104: Sign on to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Jan-07)
• Child Protection Improvements Act (S.2756/H.R.5606): Permanent crime database for volunteers with kids (Jul-08)
• American Automobile Industry Promotion Act (S.1055/H.R.1915): Fund nanomaterial research project for car batteries (Mar-07)

  Foreign policy:

• Resolution on South Ossetia (S. RES. 550): Condemns Russia for provocative statements to Georgia (May-08)
• National Security with Justice Act (S.01876): Apply habeas corpus to Guantanamo detainees (Jul-07)
• Bipartisan Resolution on Iraq (S.CON.RES.2 ): No troop surge: no military escalation in Iraq (Jan-07)
• Resolution on Darfur (S.RES 276): Deploy UN multinational peacekeeping force in Darfur (Jul-07)

McCain chooses Gov. Sarah Palin (R, AK) for vice president: Aug. 29, 2008

I am honored to announce that I have chosen Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as my choice for the Republican nominee for Vice President. As a father with three daughters, I can't express how proud I am to choose the first female Republican Vice-Presidential nominee.

Sarah Palin is a trailblazer and a reformer. As the first female governor of Alaska, she challenged a corrupt system and has been a tireless advocate for reform - passing a landmark bill on ethics reform. She has taken on the old politics in Alaska and reformed the state's energy industry. She rejects wasteful pork barrel spending. She's fearless - exactly the type of leader I want at my side and the type of leadership we will bring to Washington.

My friends, together Sarah Palin and I make the strongest presidential ticket and I know that she joins me in asking for your support as we head into our Convention week in Minnesota. We're shaking things up in this campaign - and Governor Palin and I are ready to bring real reform to Washington.

Speeches at Democratic Convention: Aug. 26-28, 2008

Obama chooses Sen. Joe Biden (D, DE) for vice president: Aug. 23, 2008

Barack Obama announced his vice presidential pick by text message (automated phone calls) at 3 AM -- harkening back to the "3 AM phone call" ads run by Obama and Hillary Clinton back in the February primaries. Clinton's ad implied Obama was not ready for the inevitable 3 AM phone call on some international emergency. Obama's new reply implies, "We are ready for anything, and we work at full-tilt, even at 3 AM."

Joe Biden ran for president in 1988, and also in 2008, dropping out on January 4th, after the Iowa caucuses. He has been in the Senate since 1972. He chairs the Foreign Policy Committee and serves on the Judiciary Committee.

As usual, OnTheIssues.org recommends that voters ignore the mainstream media's coverage of Biden. After a week of the mainstream media breathlessly speculating about Obama's vice presidential pick, the mainstream media this week will breathlessly speculate about how Biden affects Obama's and McCain's campaign. We remind voters that breathless speculation does not vote -- only you do.

Our coverage of Joe Biden includes a full Senate voting record; a set of excerpts from his biography; and excerpts from all his major debate appearances. If you want to get to know Joe Biden, read our book excerpts and our issue coverage -- then you'll know more relevant information than anything you'd learn from the breathless pundits. Following is our book review of Biden's book:

Biden focuses on what he considers his key achievements (which will likely be news to most voters!). Biden considers his lead accomplishment in his Senate career to be passage of the Violence Against Women Act in the 1990s. His other signal accomplishments include: successfully pushing Pres. Bill Clinton to bomb Serbia to free Kosovo; successfully urging Pres. Bush to return to Washington on 9/11; and successfully opposing the nomination of Robert Bork to the Supreme Court.

Biden spends substantial ink in this book on the Iraq War, which he now describes as a "neocon fantasy." While Biden sounds legitimately against the war in Iraq now, his current analysis has some level of self-justification to it -- because he voted for the war in 2002. He justifies that vote now as a means for avoiding the war in Iraq, and blames the neoconservatives and Bush for going to war and for turning the war to negative results.

More than Biden informing the voters about his issue stances, this book informs voters about Biden's personal history. That personal history is likely even less known to voters than his issue stances -- and certainly makes Sen. Biden seem a more intriguing character to this analyst. Many people know Biden's history with plagiarism, from his 1988 presidential race -- he explains that as media over-hyping here. And those people more familiar with Senate history know that Biden's wife and daughter were killed in a car crash days after his election to the Senate in 1972. Clearly those two events were formative in Biden's current presidential race. But this book explores several other less-known formative events: from overcoming childhood stuttering; to his 1988 brain surgery.

Biden's book explores his lesser-known issue stances in some detail too, including their connection to his personal history. If every candidate wrote a book like this, the voters would be well-served.

Joint appearance by McCain & Obama:Aug. 16th, 2008

John Edwards admits extramarital affair: Aug. 8, 2008

The former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards admitted Friday to an extramarital affair while his wife was battling cancer. He denied having fathered the woman's daughter. Edwards told ABC News that he had lied repeatedly about the affair with 42-year-old Rielle Hunter. He said he had not taken a paternity test but knew he was not the father because of the timing of the affair and the birth. A former Edwards campaign staff member said he was the father, not Edwards. Hunter's daughter, Frances Quinn Hunter, was born Feb. 27, 2008, and no father's name is given on the birth certificate filed in California.

The National Enquirer first reported on the affair in October 2007, and Edwards denied it. "The story is false," he told reporters. "It's completely untrue, ridiculous." He professed his love for his wife, Elizabeth, who had an incurable form of cancer, saying, "I've been in love with the same woman for 30-plus years and as anybody who's been around us knows, she's an extraordinary human being, warm, loving, beautiful, sexy and as good a person as I have ever known. So the story's just false." Last month, the Enquirer carried another article stating that its reporters had accosted Edwards in a Los Angeles hotel where he had met with Hunter after her child's birth. Edwards called the account "tabloid trash," but he generally avoided reporters' inquiries, as did his former top aides. In the interview, scheduled to air on ABC News' "Nightline," Edwards said the tabloid had been correct when it reported on his meeting with Hunter at the Beverly Hills Hotel last month. Most mainstream news organizations refrained from reporting the story

David Bonior, Edwards's campaign manager for his 2008 presidential bid, said Friday he was disappointed and angry after hearing about Edwards' confession. "Thousands of friends of the senators and his supporters have put their faith and confidence in him and he's let them down," said Bonior, a former congressman from Michigan. "They've been betrayed by his action." Asked whether the affair would damage Edwards's future aspirations in public service, Bonior replied: "You can't lie in politics and expect to have people's confidence."

In 2006, Edwards' political action committee paid $100,000 in a four-month span to a newly formed firm run by Hunter, who directed the production of just four Web videos, one a mere 2� minutes long. The payments from Edwards's One America Committee to Midline Groove Productions started July 5, 2006, five days after Hunter incorporated the firm in Delaware. At the time Hunter was compiling the videos in 2006, Edwards was preparing a run for president.

OnTheIssues third party coverage: Aug. 1st, 2008

OnTheIssues Senate voting records posted: July 25th, 2008

OnTheIssues Senate voting records posted: July 18th, 2008

Joint appearance by McCain & Obama: July 12th, 2008

OnTheIssues bill sponsorships posted: July 11th, 2008

Barack Obama books excerpted by OnTheIssues: July 4, 2008

What better way for a Democrat to spend the Independence Day holiday than reading about Barack Obama? Our book excerpts make it possible to learn all about Obama's issues stances and personal history. Detailed enough to make you an Obama expert; short enough to read it all before the Democratic Convention.
• Should Barack Obama Be President? by Fred Zimmerman
• Obama: From Promise to Power, by David Mendell
• Barack Obama: The Improbable Quest, by John K. Wilson
• Hopes and Dreams: The Story of Barack Obama, by Steve Dougherty
• Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance, by Barack Obama
• The Contenders, by Laura Flanders, et al.
• A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win, by Shelby Steele
• The Blueprint for Change, Obama's campaign platform booklet
• The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream, by Barack Obama

John McCain books excerpted by OnTheIssues: July 4, 2008

What better way for a Republican to spend the Independence Day holiday than reading about John McCain? Our book excerpts make it possible to learn all about McCain's issues stances and personal history. Detailed enough to make you an McCain expert; short enough to read it all before the Republican Convention.
• Citizen McCain, by Elizabeth Drew
• Hard Call, by John McCain & Mark Salter
• Man of the People, by Paul Alexander
• Worth the Fighting for: A Memoir, by John McCain
• John McCain: An American Odyssey, by Robert Timberg
• Why Courage Matters, by John McCain
• Faith of My Fathers: A Family Memoir, by John McCain
• Bill Bradley & McCain discuss Campaign Finance Reform
• McCain: The Myth of a Maverick, by Matt Welch

Hillary Clinton books excerpted by OnTheIssues: July 2, 2008

Hillary has dropped out -- but we all still want to KNOW about her, right? Below is our collection of excerpts from books by and about Hillary Clinton. Some include our book reviews; all include insights into Hillary's issues stances and character.
• A Woman in Charge, by Carl Bernstein
• Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, by Amanda Carpenter
• A Portrait in Her Own Words, by Claire Osborne
• Talking It Over, columns while First Lady
• It Takes a Village, 2006 edition, by Hillary Clinton
• Partners in Power: The Clintons and Their America, by Roger Morris
• For Love of Politics: Bill and Hillary Clinton: The White House Years, by Sally Bedell Smith
• Living History, by Hillary Rodham Clinton
• Hillary's Choice, by Gail Sheehy
• Her Way, by Jeff Gerth & Don Van Natta Jr.
• God and Hillary Clinton: A Spiritual Life, by Paul Kengor
• The Extreme Makeover of Hillary (Rodham) Clinton, by Bay Buchanan
• The Contenders, by Laura Flanders, et al.
• Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race, by Dick Morris

Joint appearance by McCain & Obama: June 28th, 2008

SenateMatch quizzes posted: June 20th, 2008

Hillary Clinton withdraws: June 7, 2008

18 million of you from all walks of life � women and men, young and old, Latino and Asian, African-American and Caucasian, rich, poor and middle class, gay and straight � you have stood strong with me. And I will continue to stand strong with you, every time, every place, and every way that I can. The dreams we share are worth fighting for.

I entered this race because I have an old-fashioned conviction: that public service is about helping people solve their problems and live their dreams. I�ve had every opportunity and blessing in my own life � and I want the same for all Americans. Until that day comes, you will always find me on the front lines of democracy � fighting for the future.

The way to continue our fight now � to accomplish the goals for which we stand � is to take our energy, our passion, our strength and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama the next President of the United States.

Today, as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him on the victory he has won and the extraordinary race he has run. I endorse him, and throw my full support behind him. And I ask all of you to join me in working as hard for Barack Obama as you have for me.

Although we weren�t able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, it�s got about 18 million cracks in it. And the light is shining through like never before, filling us all with the hope and the sure knowledge that the path will be a little easier next time. That has always been the history of progress in America.

Oregon & Kentucky Primary results: May 20th, 2008

Below are the delegate counts for states voting on May 20.
• Sen. Obama lost the Kentucky primary even more badly than he lost West Virginia. But Sen. Obama quietly formed a Vice Presidential selection committee the next day. The speculation:

• Obama has asked Jim Johnson to head up a quiet search for a running mate. Johnson played similar roles for Walter Mondale and John Kerry. The delicate issue for Obama, of course, is Hillary Clinton. There's a lot of pressure from Democrats that, if the math holds and Obama becomes the nominee, he pick the former first lady.

• The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder, who first ferreted out news of Obama's quiet efforts, offers a list of potential contenders, beyond Clinton.

  SENATORS: Joe Biden (DE) Bob Casey (PA) Hillary Clinton (NY) Chris Dodd (CT) Chuck Hagel (R, NE) Jim Webb (VA) FORMER SENATORS: Tom Daschle (SD) John Edwards (NC) Sam Nunn (GA)

  GOVERNORS: Tim Kaine (VA) Janet Napolitano (AZ) Bill Richardson (NM) Kathleen Sebelius (KS) Ted Strickland (OH) REPRESENTATIVES: Former Rep. Tim Roemer (IN) Meanwhile, John McCain invited three V.P. contenders to his ranch for Memorial Day: Gov. Charlie Crist (FL) Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA) Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)

John Edwards endorses Barack Obama: May 14th, 2008

Former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Edwards ended his second bid for the White House in January after failing to win any of the early state nominating contests.

Following are five facts about the former North Carolina senator, who fashioned himself as a champion of workers and the poor and a critic of Republican policies he said favoured the rich and corporate America.

• The boyish-looking 54-year-old was the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2004, running with presidential nominee John Kerry. He was credited with bringing energy and charisma to his party's bid to unseat President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.

• The son of a textile worker and the first person in his family to attend college, Edwards became a millionaire personal injury lawyer known for winning big damage awards from corporations and hospitals.

• His wife, Elizabeth, is being treated for a recurrence of cancer. They have three children. A teenage son died in a car crash in 1996.

• This year, he edged out rival Hillary Clinton to come in second in the Iowa caucuses, but placed third in subsequent races in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

• Edwards, who would later be criticized by political opponents for paying $400 for a haircut, was named the sexiest U.S. politician by People magazine in 2000.

West Virginia Primary results: May 13th, 2008

Below are the delegate counts for states voting as of May 13.
• Sen. Obama lost the West Virginia primary badly, but in the weeks since the Pennsylvania primary, many superdelegates have declared their support, even including some who previously supported Sen. Clinton.

• Immediately prior to the West Virginia primary, Sen. Obama pulled ahead in the superdelegate count for the first time, eroding Sen. Clinton's last chance at winning the nomination.

• But Sen. Clinton will undoubtedly stay in the race through the last primary in June in Puerto Rico, for several good reasons:
  • Her delegate total will increase more if she stays in the race (fewer people will vote for her if she drops out)
  • Her delegate total at the convention gives her power -- she needs as much cushion as possible because some delegates will defect.
  • With sufficient delegate strength to force a "brokered convention" (i.e. if Sen. Obama cannot exceed 50% on the first ballot, which requries 2,026 delegates), Sen. Clinton can negotiate for a position such as Vice President or a cabinet post, or anything she wants.
  • Her delegate total PRIOR to the convention gives her power, too -- in determining the content of the Party Platform, for example, which is written by delegates!
• In summary, there is no good reason to drop out, and plenty of good reason to stay in, so obviously Sen. Clinton will stay in. We predict she will stop attacking Sen. Obama and be much more positive, to "heal wounds" and further strengthen her negotiating position.

Bob Barr announces for Libertarian nomination: May 12th, 2008

Former Republican Rep. Bob Barr launched a Libertarian Party presidential bid Monday, saying voters are hungry for an alternative to the status quo who would dramatically cut the federal government.

His candidacy throws a wild card into the White House race that many believe could peel away votes from Republican Sen. John McCain given the candidates' similar positions on fiscal policy. Barr, who has hired Ross Perot's former campaign manager, acknowledged that some Republicans have tried to discourage him from running. But he said he's getting in the race to win, not to play spoiler or to make a point.

Barr first must win the Libertarian nomination at the party's national convention that begins May 22. Party officials consider him a front-runner thanks to the national profile he developed as a Georgia congressman from 1995 to 2003. Barr, 59, quit the Republican Party two years ago, saying he had grown disillusioned with its failure to shrink government and its willingness to scale back civil liberties in fighting terrorism. He has been particularly critical of President Bush over the war in Iraq and says the administration is ignoring constitutional protections on due process and privacy.

While in Congress, he was a persistent critic of President Clinton and was among the first to press for impeaching the former president. He helped manage House Republicans' impeachment case before the Senate. He lost his seat to fellow Republican Rep. John Linder in 2002 after a redistricting. He then opened a lobbying and public affairs firm with offices in Atlanta and outside Washington.

The 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate, Michael Badnarik, took less than 1 percent of the vote, placing fourth behind President Bush, Democrat John Kerry and Independent Ralph Nader.

Democratic vice presidential speculation: May 9th, 2008

Following is a Huffington Post columnist's opinion on Obama's V.P. choices. OnTheIssues.org predicts Bill Bradley as the best choice demographically and to complement Obama's strengths and weaknesses. But please look over their issue positions and decide for yourself!

With the Democratic nomination now in its endgame, it's time to speculate on that question that makes politicos weak at the knees: who will be tapped to be vice president? We've identified 10 possible VP choices for Obama, as well as the general criteria that might guide his decision.

Pennsylvania Primary results: April 22nd, 2008

Below are the delegate counts for states voting in March & April.
• After months of OnTheIssues focusing on the delegate count, the mainstream media has come to agree that delegates are important. Hence our coverage is no longer needed -- you can see the delegate counts now, hour-by-hour, on TV and in the newspapers.

• It has also become apparent that Sen. Obama will win the nomination, despite Sen. Clinton's big victory in Pennsylvania. We base this judgment on -- what else? -- the delegate count. Prior to the Pennsylvania primary, Sen. Clinton had a substantial lead in superdelegates, and if one extrapolated the same ratio to the undeclared superdelegates, Sen. Clinton still had a chance at winning the nomination. After the Pennsylvania primary, superdelegates started endorsing Sen. Obama in a much higher ratio, and Sen. Clinton's chances for prevailing thus faded.

• It is still possible that Sen. Clinton will keep enough delegates to force a brokered convention (i.e., Sen. Obama does not have enough delegates to exceed 50% on the first-ballot, which requries 2,026 delegates). That's especially true if the Democratic Party Credentials Committee seats Michigan and Florida delegates in a manner favorable for Sen. Clinton, as seems very likely. But without a substantial superdelegate lead, Sen. Clinton no longer has a chance for a 50% first-ballot victory herself.

• Hence we terminate our primary coverage -- we'll report here later Democratic Party events, but we're going to focus now on building up our website on the upcoming Senate races!

Mike Gravel announces for Libertarian nomination: March 26th, 2008

Former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel has abandoned his bid to be the Democratic presidential candidate and now hopes to be the nominee of the Libertarian Party. Gravel said he is joining the Libertarian ranks because it �is a party that combines a commitment to freedom and peace that can�t be found in the two major parties that control the government and politics of America.

�My libertarian views, as well as my strong stance against war, the military industrial complex and American imperialism, seem not to be tolerated by Democratic Party elites who are out of touch with the average American; elites that reject the empowerment of American citizens I offered to the Democratic Party at the beginning of this presidential campaign with the National Initiative for Democracy,� he said in a statement. In an e-mail to supporters, Gravel, 77, wrote, �I look forward to advancing my presidential candidacy within the Libertarian Party, which is considerably closer to my values, my foreign policy views and my domestic views.�

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is a lifetime member of the Libertarian Party but is running as a Republican presidential candidate. Paul was the Libertarian Party presidential candidate in 1988. 15 candidates are on the slate for the Libertarian Party nomination, which will be determined at the May 22-26 national convention in Denver, Colo.

A Libertarian Party spokesperson said Gravel isn�t �a perfect libertarian� but he supports essentials of the party � opposing a military draft, empowering the American voter and standing against �the war of American imperialism.�

Bill Richardson endorses Barack Obama: March 21, 2008

Declaring that Sen. Barack Obama is an "extraordinary American," Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico endorsed Obama for the Democratic nominee for president. Richardson sought this year's Democratic nomination for president himself.

Richardson praised Obama for his speech this week on race in America, saying "he appealed to the best in us." "As a Hispanic-American, I was particularly touched by his words," Richardson said, putting his arm around Obama and declaring in Spanish that he is "a man who understands us." Richardson is the nation's only Hispanic governor. Hispanics have tended to support Sen. Hillary Clinton in her quest for the Democratic nomination.

Obama and Clinton both lobbied Richardson for his endorsement after he dropped out of the race January 10. Richardson called Clinton Thursday to tell her of his decision, Clinton's campaign said. The campaign shrugged off Richardson's endorsement of her rival. Richardson was secretary of energy and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under President Bill Clinton. He said he remains friends with the Clintons, and watched the Super Bowl with Bill Clinton this year.

Richardson's endorsement may be more important for its influence on superdelegates, the nearly 800 Democratic party officials whose backing will be essential for either candidate to win the party's nomination. As a governor, Richardson is a superdelegate.

Richardson is the second former Democratic presidential contender to endorse Obama, after Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut. Two other former candidates, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, have remained neutral. None of the dropouts has endorsed Clinton.

Republican vice presidential speculation: March 13, 2008

Following is a Boston Globe columnist's opinion on McCain's V.P. choices. OnTheIssues.org predicts Mark Sanford as the best choice demographically and to complement McCain's strengths and weaknesses. CNN favors Haley Barbour and the Conventional Wisdom seems to favor Charlie Crist. The most "maverick" choice would be Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for Vice President who is now an Independent actively supporting McCain. But please look over their issue positions and decide for yourself!

HERE'S MY RANKING of the 20 candidates - from weakest to strongest. (with scores, where 100 is the best)

Todd Domke is a Boston area Republican political analyst, public relations strategist, and author.

Pres. Bush endorses John McCain: March 5, 2008

President Bush endorsed Republican nominee-in-waiting John McCain on Wednesday, two bitter rivals from the 2000 presidential race joining together now in hopes of preventing Democrats from winning the White House this fall. Bush's embrace of the Arizona senator as the party's next standard-bearer comes a day after McCain clinched the GOP nomination by getting the requisite 1,191 convention delegates. Republicans won't officially nominate McCain until early September at the GOP's national convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

With his low poll ratings and an unpopular war on his shoulders, Bush could hurt McCain with some groups, while helping with others. "They're not going to be voting for me," the president said. "I've had my time in the Oval Office." "It's not about me," Bush said. "I've done my bit."

McCain's Washington visit amounted to a victory lap of sorts after a bruising 16-month Republican presidential primary. He was visiting not only the White House he hopes to occupy but also the Republican National Committee headquarters that he essentially assumes control of now that he's the expected GOP nominee. He was essentially laying claim to the entire force of the Republican Party apparatus as he plots his general election strategy and sets in motion his campaign � and that of the party � to keep a Republican at the White House helm.

For McCain, the general election campaign starts now even though Democrats still haven't chosen a candidate. Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton continue a protracted battle for their party's nod, leaving McCain an opportunity to unify his party. To that end, Bush's support sends a strong signal to GOP critics of McCain to fall in line. The GOP's conservative base has resisted rallying around McCain, long viewing him skeptically for working across the aisle with Democrats on issues that the right flank detest. Bush is the head of the Republican Party and he remains a well-liked figure with GOP rank-and-file. Thus, he could be an asset in raising money and rallying the GOP base for McCain. However, his job performance rating is at a low point and he is unpopular with the general public.

Mike Huckabee withdraws: March 5, 2008

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is calling it a day -- he's dropping out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Huckabee made the announcement to his supporters in Texas after John McCain clinched the needed number of delegates.

Huckabee says he telephoned McCain and offered not only his congratulations, but his commitment to both him and the Republican Party.

Huckabee praised McCain, saying he has run "an honorable campaign because he is an honorable man."

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