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Check out our App, or... Search for... Recent debates and speeches... Third Presidential debate (Oct. 19, 2016) Second Presidential debate (Oct. 9, 2016) Vice-presidential debate (Oct. 4, 2016) First Presidential debate (Sept. 26, 2016) Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues (paperback Feb. 2016) State of the State speeches (Jan.-March 2016) Miami Democratic debate (March 2016) Miami Republican debate (March 2016) Republican primary debate in Detroit, Michigan (March 2016) CNN-Telemundo Republican debate on eve of Texas primary. (Feb. 2016) 2016 CNN GOP Town Hall in South Carolina (Feb. 2016) 2016 CBS News Republican Debate in S.C. (Feb. 2016) PBS Democratic Primary Debate in Wisconsin (Feb. 2016) 2016 ABC News/IJReview Republican Debate in N.H. (Feb. 2016) MSNBC Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire (Feb. 2016) CNN Democratic Town Hall (Jan. 2016) Fox Iowa GOP debate (Jan. 2016) NBC/CBC Democratic debate (Jan. 2016) Fox Business GOP debate (Jan. 2016) State of the Union address (Jan. 2016) Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues (paperback Feb. 2016) CNN GOP Nevada debate (Dec. 2015) Syrian Refugee crisis (Nov.-Dec. 2015) CBS Democratic debate (Nov. 2015) Fox Business GOP debate (Nov. 2015) CNBC GOP debate (Oct. 2015) CNN Democrat debate (Oct. 2015) CNN GOP debate (Sept. 2015) Fox/Facebook GOP debate (August 2015) Marco Rubio vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues (paperback June 2015) Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul On the Issues (paperback May 2015) Rand Paul vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues (paperback April 2015) Jeb vs. Hillary On the Issues (paperback Feb. 2015) Rand vs. Ron Paul On the Issues (Chart April 2015) Hillary vs. Bill Clinton On the Issues (Chart Feb. 2015) Jeb vs. George Bush On the Issues (Chart March 2015) Excerpts from "Hard Choices" (by Hillary Clinton) Excerpts from "Immigration Wars" (by Jeb Bush) Excerpts from "Government Bullies" (by Rand Paul) Iowa pre-caucus Summits (Jan.-March, 2015) 2015 presidential hopeful excerpts Senate debates (for Nov. 2014 elections): Recent books by... Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R, MA) No Apology Rep. Paul Ryan (R, WI) Young Guns Pres. Barack Obama The Audacity of Hope V.P. Joe Biden Promises to Keep Former Rep. Ron Paul End the Fed Former Pres. George W. Bush Decision Points Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R, AK) America By Heart Secy. of State Hillary Clinton Living History Former Pres. Bill Clinton My Life Gov. Jesse Ventura American Conspiracies The Web OnTheIssues.org Book Reviews & Excerpts (click a book cover for excerpts and a review or other books by or about the presidency from Amazon.com) Fun Stuff Social Networking sites for OnTheIssues: FaceBook YouTube MySpace On The Issues Promote Your Page Too Prez-Veep-Senator Our associated Yahoo discussion group Our iPhone App iPhone App with ads (free) Our iPhone App Same App without ads ($1.99) Tweet   Site Map Home (Main page) Issues (Quotations organized by topic) Leaders (Quotations organized by politician) Recent (Most recent quotation for each person) Candidate Grid (Summary by candidate of positions on each topic) Issue Grid (Summary by topic of each candidate's positions) Archives (Debate and book excerpts) House of Representatives (106th & 107th Congress) Senate (Senators in 107th Congress) Senate 2000 (Races for 33 seats) Governors (50 incumbents) Cabinet (15 Secretaries) Supreme Court (9 Justices) VoteMatch (Presidential Selector and Political Affiliation 20-question quiz) The Forum (Your views on the candidates and the issues) SpeakOut Issues (Policy background) News (Latest headlines on the Presidential race) About Us (About OnTheIssues.org) Letters (Other viewers' letters) Low-graphics version (No ads, less Java) Write Us (Your feedback to us)

[Browse the most recent additions to the website...] 2015-16 Election Coverage 2016 Presidential Election Prediction 2016 Senate Election Prediction 2016 House Election Prediction Third 2016 Presidential debate Second 2016 Presidential debate 2016 Vice-Presidential debate First 2016 Presidential debate 2016 Presidential Election Coverage 2016 Senate Election Coverage 2016 House Election Coverage 2015-16 Gubernatorial Election Coverage       Recent analyses... Hillary clinches; Trump claims to clinch (April 26) Abraham Lincoln LOST his first ballot in 1860? (April 16) How are delegates selected? (April 3) What is a "second ballot"? (March 22) Are the primaries democracy? (answer: No; March 15) U.S. Insular Territories get to vote? (answer: Yes; March 12) What are "winner-take-all" primaries? (March 8) What is a "brokered convention"? (March 6) Super Saturday (March 5-8, 2016) Super Tuesday (March 1, 2016) Supreme Court vacancy (Feb. 13, 2016) Nomination prediction (Jan. 1, 2016) Senate debates (2016 election) AK  -   AL  -   AR  -   AZ  -   CA  -   CO  -   CT  -   FL  -   GA  -   HI  -   IA  -   ID  -   IL  -   IN  -   KS  -   KY  -   LA  -   MD  -   MO  -   NC  -   ND  -   NH  -   NV  -   NY  -   OH  -   OK  -   OR  -   PA  -   SC  -   SD  -   UT  -   VT  -   WA  -   WI Gubernatorial debates (2015-2016-2017 elections): DE  -   IN  -   KY  -   LA  -   MO  -   MS  -   MT  -   NC  -   ND  -   NH  -   NJ  -   OR  -   UT  -   VA  -   VT  -   WA  -   WV  -           Presidential prediction: Oct. 28, 2016 OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats win 372-160 Electoral counts: Hillary Clinton 372; Donald Trump 160; Evan McMullin 6 OnTheIssues predicts a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, 372-160 electoral votes. Some points of interest: We predict that Evan McMullin will win Utah and its 6 electoral votes. That would be the first electoral vote victory for a 3rd-party candidate since George Wallace in 1968. Even if McMullin loses Utah, he will most likely come in second place, the first time a non-major party has come in second since Ross Perot in 1992. We predict that Hillary will turn blue many traditionally red states, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. We do not predict that Hillary will turn Texas blue -- but the pundits love that possibility and will talk about it endlessly on election night. When the polls close at 8 PM on election night, the bellweather states are PA, GA, and NC -- if those three fall to Hillary, our map will be pretty accurate for the rest of the country. Nebrasks and Maine split their electoral votes; we predict both will do so, with the urban areas going for Hillary and the rural areas for Trump. Methodology: As with our Senate Prediction and House Prediction, our preliminary analysis is "meta-analysis" of polls, summing up the results of numerous credible statewide polls nationwide. Then we apply political intuition as to why the polls are systemically over-counting or under-counting in their results (for example, the polls in 2008 and 2012 systemically under-counted turnout among minority voters and young voters -- our intuitive effort here is to predict those sorts of systemic errors for 2016). There are two core systemic errors for 2016 that the polls cannot capture: increased turnout among youth and minorities (which favors Hillary Clinton), and decreased GOTV efforts by the Republican Party (which disfavors Donald Trump). The Clinton campaign is currently attempting to increase youth turnout by deploying Bernie Sanders and is also currently attempting to increase minority turnout by deploying Barack Obama. We do not think these efforts will be very successful -- Hillary simply does not appeal to youth like Bernie Sanders does, and does not appeal to minorities like Barack Obama does. Her efforts will succeed at avoiding these groups voting for Trump, but we predict the usual historically low turnout, unlike the very high youth turnout enjoyed by Sanders in the 2016 primaries and the historically high minority turnout enjoyed by Obama in 2012. Bottom line on youth and minorities: the polls will get it right: youth and minorities will vote overwhelmingly for Hillary over Trump, but will have under-whelming turnout at the polls. The Trump campaign is attempting to overcome lackluster participation by Republican Party officials nationwide -- we explore this problem in detail in our commentary on the second presidential debate. Lackluster Republican Party participation in the presidential campaign means that "GOTV efforts" -- "Get Out The Vote" on election day -- will be severely hampered by having only half the number of Republican volunteers compared to Democratic volunteers. This "GOTV failure" will cost Trump 3% or 4% on Election Day -- and the daily tracking polls do NOT account for this! Bottom line on Republican GOTV: If the polls indicate that Trump is only ahead by 2% or 3% in a particular state, it is likely that Hillary will win that state due to superior Democratic GOTV. Trump has consistently complained that the Republican Party has not done its fair share -- we agree, and we think that will cost Trump the election! For more: Hillary Clinton On the Issues and Donald Trump On the Issues . House of Representatives prediction: Oct. 26, 2016 OnTheIssues.org prediction: Republicans hold their House majority by 5 seats Currently the GOP holds a House majority of 30 seats. OnTheIssues predicts that the Democrats will gain a substantial number of seats in the House, but not quite enough to overcome the Republican majority. Our summary prediction first: Category A: First we list 27 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win. Category B: Then we list 2 Democrat-held districts where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 25 turnovers, 5 fewer than is needed for a Democratic majority. Category C: 15 Republican-held House districts where we predict the Republicans will retain the seat in a tight race. Category D: 3 Democratic-held House districts where we predict the Democrats will retain the seat in a tight race. We predict that for all 388 other districts not listed here, the incumbent party will maintain its seat. Net result: House control is maintained by the GOP, with a Republican majority of 247-188 slipping to a weaker majority of 222-213. Category A: 27 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win California 10 (R+2) Jeff Denham loses to to Michael Eggman California 25 (R+3) Steve Knight loses to Bryan Caforio California 49 (R+2) Darrell Issa loses to Doug Applegate Colorado 6 (D+1) Mike Coffman loses to Morgan Carroll Florida 7 (R+1) John Mica loses to Stephanie Murphy Florida 10 (D+11) Dan Webster switched to FL-11; takeover by Val Demings Florida 13 (D+4) David Jolly loses to former Gov. Charlie Crist Florida 26 (Even) Carlos Curbelo loses to former Rep. Joe Garcia Illinois 10 (D+8) Bob Dold loses to former Rep. Brad Schneider Iowa 1 (D+1) Rod Blum loses to Monica Vernon Maine 2 (R+1) Bruce Poliquin loses to State Sen. Emily Cain Michigan 1 (R+2) Dan Benishek retiring; takeover by Lon Johnson Michigan 7 (R+4) Tim Walberg loses to State Rep. Gretchen Driskell Minnesota 2 (D+3) John Kline retiring; takeover by John Howe Nevada 3 (Even) Joe Heck retiring; takeover by Jacky Rosen Nevada 4 (D+7) Cresent Hardy loses to Ruben Kihuen New Hampshire 1 (D+5) Frank Guinta loses to former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter New Jersey 5 (Even) Scott Garrett loses to Josh Gottheimer New York 19 (Even) Chris Gibson retiring; takeover by former Gov. candidate Zephyr Teachout New York 22 (Even) Richard Hanna retiring; takeover by Kim A. Myers New York 21 (Even) Elise Stefanik loses to Mike Derrick New York 24 (R+4) John Katko loses to Colleen Deacon Pennsylvania 8 (Even) Mike Fitzpatrick loses to State Rep. Steve Santarsiero Texas 23 (Even) Will Hurd loses to former Rep. Pete Gallego Virginia 4 (D+11) Randy Forbes lost primary; takeover by Donald McEachin Virginia 10 (R+3) Barbara Comstock loses to LuAnn Bennett Wisconsin 8 (R+4) Reid Ribble retiring; takeover by Tom Nelson Category B: 2 Democratic-held districts where we predict a sure Republican win Florida 2 (R+11) Gwen Graham (retiring); takeover by Ken Sukhia Florida 18 (Even) Patrick Murphy (retiring); takeover by Randy Perkins Category C: 15 hotly-contested Republican-held districts where we predict the Republican will hold the seat * These are all districts where our prediction changed since August Arizona 2 (R+9) Martha McSally survives challenge by Victoria Steele Colorado 3 (R+8) Scott Tipton survives challenge by Gail Schwartz Florida 27 (R+11) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen survives challenge by Scott Fuhrman Illinois 12 (R+9) Mike Bost survives challenge by C.J. Baricevic Iowa 3 (R+7) David Young survives challenge by Jim Mowrer Michigan 6 (R+11) Fred Upton survives challenge by Paul Clements Michigan 8 (R+9) Mike Bishop survives challenge by Suzanna Shkreli Michigan 11 (R+4) Dave Trott survives challenge by Former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (who would caucus R) Minnesota 3 (R+5) Erik Paulsen survives challenge by State Sen. Terri Bonoff New York 1 (R+7) Lee Zeldin survives challenge by Anna E. Throne-Holst New York 23 (R+9) Tom Reed survives challenge by John Plumb Pennsylvania 6 (R+11) Ryan Costello survives challenge by Mike Parrish Pennsylvania 16 (R+7) Joe Pitts survives challenge by Christina Hartman Virginia 5 (R+6) Robert Hurt survives challenge by Jane Dittmar Washington 8 (R+4) Dave Reichert survives challenge by Santiago Ramos Category D: 3 hotly-contested Democratic-held districts where we predict the Democrat will hold the seat * These are all districts where our prediction changed since August Arizona 1 (D+4) Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring); Tom O'Halleran survives challenge by Paul Babeu and Former Secretary of state Ken Bennett Nebraska 2 (D+3) Brad Ashford survives challenge by Don Bacon New York 3 (D+11) Steve Israel survives challenge by Jack Martins Prediction methodology We use a "meta-analysis" of looking at the averages of several polls simultaneously (not using partisan voting history in the district as in our earlier prediction). Such analyses are available on Wikipedia and in numerous other sources. First we determine "competitive" districts, where several polling organizations indicate that the incumbent party might lose. Then we look at the actual opponents; they must meet several criteria: They must have a web presence (a professional campaign website, and presence in newspaper reports) They must have an "issues" section on their website (we refuse to predict any candidate can win without a platform -- and we found MANY such candidates!) They must be within "striking distance," i.e. within 4 percentage points, a typical margin-of-error on polls. Meeting those criteria "certifies" a challenger as winnable and hence in Category A or B; our theory is that 2016 is a "change election" and any seriously-challenged incumbent will lose if the polls indicate "even" or a challenger slightly behind. For more: Members of the House of Representatives On the Issues. Senate prediction: Oct. 23, 2016 OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats take a Senate majority by 2 seats Our state-by-state analysis of the Senate is presented below; we predict a 2-seat majority by the Democrats. Our summary prediction first. Currently the GOP holds a Senate majority of 4 seats. Category A: First we list 7 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win. Category B: Then we list 1 Democrat-held district where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 6 turnovers, 2 more than is needed for a Democratic majority. Category C: 17 Republican-held Senate seats where we predict the Republicans will retain the seat. Category D: 9 Democratic-held Senate seats where we predict the Democrats will retain the seat. Net result: Senate control switches from a Republican majority of 54-46 to a Democratic majority of 52-48. Category A: 7 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win (with late polling results of which party leads in polls) Illinois (D+6) Sen. Mark Kirk loses to Rep. Tammy Duckworth Indiana (Even) Rep. Todd Young loses to former Sen. Evan Bayh *Missouri (R+1) Sen. Roy Blunt (R) loses to Jason Kander N.C. (Even) Sen. Richard Burr loses to Rep. Deborah K. Ross N.H. (Even) Sen. Kelly Ayotte loses to Gov. Maggie Hassan Pennsylvania(Even) Sen. Pat Toomey loses to Katie McGinty Wisconsin (D+6) Sen. Ron Johnson loses to former Sen. Russell Feingold Category B: 1 Democratic-held district where we predict a Republican win Nevada (Even) Catherine Cortez Masto loses to Rep. Joe Heck Category C: 17 Republican-held districts where we predict the Republican will hold the seat * States where our prediction changed since August Alabama Richard Shelby retains Republican seat Alaska (R+14) Lisa Murkowski retains Republican seat Arizona (R+10) John McCain retains Republican seat Arkansas John Boozman retains Republican seat *Florida (R+4) Sen. Marco Rubio survives against Rep. Patrick Murphy Georgia (R+13) Johnny Isakson retains Republican seat Idaho Mike Crapo retains Republican seat *Iowa (R+13) Sen. Chuck Grassley survives against Patty Judge Kansas Jerry Moran retains Republican seat Kentucky (R+14) Rand Paul retains Republican seat Louisiana (R+13)John Neely Kennedy retains Republican seat North Dakota John Hoeven retains Republican seat *Ohio (R+11) Sen. Rob Portman survives against Gov. Ted Strickland Oklahoma James Lankford retains Republican seat South Carolina Tim Scott retains Republican seat South Dakota John Thune retains Republican seat Utah Mike Lee retains Republican seat Category D: 9 Democratic-held districts where we predict the Democrat will hold the seat Colorado (D+13) Michael Bennet retains Democrat seat California Kamala Harris retains Democrat seat Connecticut Richard Blumenthal retains Democrat seat Hawaii Brian Schatz retains Democrat seat Maryland Chris Van Hollen retains Democrat seat New York Chuck Schumer retains Democrat seat Oregon Ron Wyden retains Democrat seat Vermont Patrick Leahy retains Democrat seat Washington Patty Murray retains Democrat seat For more: Members of the Senate On the Issues. Third presidential debate: Oct. 19, 2016 Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton debate in Las Vegas Excerpts and fact-checking from the third debate: Donald Trump on Abortion: Not acceptable to rip baby from womb in 9th month. Donald Trump on Budget & Economy: We're dying at 1% GDP growth; we don't make things anymore. Hillary Clinton on Free Trade: I fought illegal dumping of Chinese steel and aluminum. Donald Trump on Free Trade: I disagreed with Ronald Reagan on trade; we need better Evan McMullin on Free Trade: Consistent conservative in favor of free trade. Hillary Clinton on Government Reform: Unprecedented Russian interference in presidential election. Jill Stein on Government Reform: We need ranked-choice voting in presidential elections. Hillary Clinton FactCheck on Immigration: Yes, voted for a partial wall on Mexican border Donald Trump FactCheck on Immigration: Yes, Hillary would increase Syrian refugees by 550% What about the supposedly all-important assertion by Donald Trump that he won't accept the results of the election? (It's there in our excerpts; Hillary called it "horrifying" and the mainstream media has harped on about it endlessly). Well, here's what that really means: NOTHING. What happens if Hillary is declared the winner on election night and Trump never concedes? NOTHING. What happens if Trump NEVER accepts the election results? NOTHING. All of these seemingly important events -- Hillary being declared the winner; Trump calling with a concession speech; the loser "accepting" the election results -- none of these matter one bit. Do you know what the U.S. Constitution says about all of those things? NOTHING. The Constitution is clear on how presidential elections ACTUALLY work: Each state determines the winner of the electoral votes in that state (by the Secretary of State certifying the result, or various terminology analogous to that). If Trump actually wants to DO something to "not accept the election results," he would have to file a lawsuit in individual states where the election was close enough to warrant that -- TK34 states allow that. 20TK states have an automatic recount process if there's a tight enough margin -- that's what occurred in Florida in 2000 -- otherwise Trump has to pay for a recount. Trump can file those lawsuits regardless of whether he concedes on election night or not (you might recall that in 2000, Al Gore DID concede, and then called George W. Bush back to "rescind" his concession -- but none of that really mattered Constitutionally -- filing his lawsuit the next day DID matter -- that led to the case "Bush v. Gore" that went to the Supreme Court). There are rules in each state about how close the results have to be, to allow filing a lawsuit like that -- Trump can do so, individually in each state, and that would delay certification in THAT state, but not in any other states. After the Secretaries of State certify each state's results, the "Electoral College" meets to finalize the presidential election -- regardless of Trump's "acceptance" of the results or not -- that's what the Constitution is all about. Let's say Hillary wins with 372 electoral votes on election night -- with 270 needed to win, that means Trump would have to file lawsuits in states adding up to at least 102 electoral votes (that's at least a half-dozen mid-size states) in order to delay the Electoral College from voting regardless of some states being delayed. So when you hear the mainstream media harping on about Trump "threatening democracy," you might refer them to the U.S. Constitution -- it's all laid out clearly in Article II, without any reference to "acceptance" or "concession" or anything else -- and nothing Trump has said is any threat to that! For more: Excerpts from third presidential debate. Second presidential debate: Oct. 9, 2016 Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump debate at Washington University Excerpts and fact-checking from the second debate: Donald Trump on Budget & Economy: U.S. 1% growth is almost no growth, and due to high taxes. Hillary Clinton on Corporations: I voted to close corporate tax loopholes that Trump used. Hillary Clinton FactCheck on Energy & Oil: US not yet quite energy-independent. Donald Trump on Families & Children: I have great respect for women; despite locker-room talk. Hillary Clinton on Free Trade: Trade prosecutor to deal with China illegally dumping steel. Donald Trump on Health Care: ObamaCare will never work; repeal it and replace it. Donald Trump on Homeland Security: Replace a Muslim ban with an extreme vetting of Muslims. Donald Trump on Immigration: Border agents endorsed me because I understand the border. Hillary Clinton on Principles & Values: I've produced results in my 30 years of public service. Donald Trump FactCheck on Tax Reform: Cutting carried interest gains $18B in revenue. Mike Pence FactCheck on War & Peace: Pence says pressure Assad; Trump focuses on ISIS. For more: Excerpts from second presidential debate. Vice-presidential debate: Oct. 4, 2016 Republican Mike Pence vs. Democrat Tim Kaine, plus commentary and fact-checking An estimated 37 million people watched the vice-presidential debate. Our first round of excerpts: Tim Kaine on Budget & Economy: We tried Trump tax plan in 2000s: it caused Great Recession. Mike Pence on Crime: Law enforcement is not a force for racism or division. Donald Trump on Foreign Policy: FactCheck: Japan should defend itself, including with nukes. Mike Pence on Foreign Policy: America's place in the world is weakened. Tim Kaine on Immigration: No "deportation force" going door-to-door to deport 16M. Tim Kaine on Jobs: Trump is "You're fired"; Hillary is "You're hired". Bill Weld on Principles & Values: Trump's agenda is hurtful to America & the world. Donald Trump on Principles & Values: A businessman, not a lifelong politician. Mike Pence on Principles & Values: Serve based on a lifetime of experience from small towns. Tim Kaine: I bring experience of service at all levels of government. Tim Kaine on Social Security: Never, ever risk Social Security with privatization. Mike Pence on Social Security: We're going to meet our obligations to our seniors. Donald Trump on Social Security: FactCheck: Yes, "privatization would be good for all of us". Mike Pence on Tax Reform: Lower taxes across the board, and we'll get growth. Tim Kaine on War & Peace: We now have fewer troops abroad & reduced Iranian threat. For more: Excerpts from the Vice-Presidential debate. First presidential debate: Sept. 26, 2016 Excerpts from first presidential debate at Hofstra University An estimated 81 million people watched the first presidential debate. Our first round of excerpts: Hillary Clinton on Budget & Economy: No trumped-up trickle-down: reward work, not transactions. Donald Trump on Crime: Stop-and-frisk worked very well in NYC. Hillary Clinton on Crime: Stop-and-frisk is ineffective as well as unconstitutional. Donald Trump on Energy & Oil: America invested in solar panels and it was a disaster. Donald Trump on Families & Children: Hillary and I agree on paid family leave. Donald Trump on Tax Reform: Not paying income taxes makes me smart. For more: Excerpts from first presidential debate. House prediction: Sept. 20, 2016 OnTheIssues.org prediction: Dick Cheney's daughter elected to U.S. House Former Vice President Dick Cheney's daughter is running for Congress in Wyoming -- and OnTheIssues predicts that she will win. Some additional coverage of hot Congressional races below -- all of whom are challengers and all of whom we predict will win in November. They are mostly Democrats but we're sticking with our earlier prediction that the Republicans will maintain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. We will cover the rest of the new members of the U.S. House once they are elected in November. Republican nominee for FL-6 House seat: Sandy Adams Democratic nominee for FL-13 House seat: Charlie Crist Democratic nominee for FL-26 House seat: Joe Garcia Democratic nominee for HI-1 House seat: Colleen Hanabusa Democratic nominee for IL-10 House seat: Brad Schneider Democratic nominee for NH-1 House seat: Carol Shea-Porter Democratic nominee for NY-19 House seat: Zephyr Teachout Democratic nominee for TX-23 House seat: Pete Gallego Republican nominee for at-large Wyoming House seat: Liz Cheney For more: Members of the U.S. House On the Issues. Final Senate candidates: Sept. 10, 2016 Joe Miller announces candidacy; OnTheIssues closes candidate list Former Republican nominee Joe Miller made a late entry into the Alaska Senate race to take on his nemesis Lisa Murkowski; he will bear the Libertarian banner, which was yielded to him from Cean Stevens. At this late date, OnTheIssues considers our Senate candidate list completed -- Joe Miller was a very late exception. The rest of the new entrants below are late primary winners and third-party nominees. OnTheIssues has "closed" the list of candidates so we can spend the rest of the election providing deeper coverage of the candidates we are covering. Newly-announced Alaska Libertarian candidate for Senate: Joe Miller New Alaska Democratic nominee for Senate: Ray Metcalfe New Connecticut Republican candidate for Senate: Dan Carter New Georgia Democratic candidate for Senate: Jim Barksdale New Hawaii Republican candidate for Senate: John Carroll New Idaho Democratic candidate for Senate: Jerry Sturgill New Indiana Democratic candidate for Senate: Evan Bayh New Iowa Democratic candidate for Senate: Patty Judge New Kentucky Republican candidate for Senate: Jim Gray New Louisiana Libertarian candidate for Senate: Thomas Clements New Louisiana Democratic candidate for Senate: Foster Campbell New Louisiana Republican candidate for Senate: Rob Maness New York Libertarian candidate for Senate: Alex Merced New North Carolina Libertarian candidate for Senate: Sean Haugh New North Dakota Democratic candidate for Senate: Eliot Glassheim New Oklahoma Democratic candidate for Senate: Mike Workman New South Carolina Democratic candidate for Senate: Thomas Dixon New Utah Democratic candidate for Senate: Misty Snow New Wisconsin Libertarian for Senate: Phil Anderson New Vermont Republican candidate for Senate: Scott Milne For more: Senatorial candidates On the Issues. Senate prediction: Aug. 31, 2016 OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats take a Senate majority by 3 seats The mainstream media is full of reports of how the U.S. Senate might turn Democratic, because national polls or prediction models show that Democrats are ahead, perhaps by enough to make up the 4-seat deficit they currently suffer. That sort of prediction is ridiculous. Smart voters know that national polls are irrelevant to individual Senate races -- the only way to analyze Senate races is by making predictions in individual states. We at OnTheIssues.org have done the state-by-state analysis, which we present below, followed by our scoring criteria (below our House prediction) so you can apply your own analysis later. Our summary prediction first. Currently the GOP holds a Senate majority of 4 seats. Category A: First we list 5 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win. Category B: Then we list 4 Republican-held districts where we make a 50-50 chance of a Democratic takeover, meaning we predict that 2 will turn Democratic. That totals to 7 districts turning from Republican to Democrat -- which is enough to overcome the current 4-seat Republican majority. Category C: But finally, we list 1 Democrat-held districts where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 6 turnovers, 2 more than is needed for a Democratic majority. Category A: 5 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win Iowa (D+1) Sen. Chuck Grassley loses to Patty Judge Illinois (D+8) Sen. Mark Kirk loses to Rep. Tammy Duckworth N.H. (D+1) Sen. Kelly Ayotte loses to Gov. Maggie Hassan Pennsylvania(D+1) Sen. Pat Toomey loses to Katie McGinty Wisconsin (D+2) Sen. Ron Johnson loses to former Sen. Russell Feingold Category B: 4 Republican-held districts where we predict a 50-50 chance of a Democratic takeover (net gain of 2 Democrats) Florida (R+2) Sen. Marco Rubio loses to Rep. Patrick Murphy Indiana (R+5) Rep. Todd Young loses to former Sen. Evan Bayh N.C. (R+3) Sen. Richard Burr loses to Rep. Deborah K. Ross Ohio (R+1) Sen. Rob Portman loses to Gov. Ted Strickland Category C: 1 Democratic-held district where we predict a Republican win Nevada (D+2) Catherine Cortez Masto loses to Rep. Joe Heck For more: Members of the Senate On the Issues. House of Representatives prediction: Aug. 23, 2016 OnTheIssues.org prediction: Republicans hold their House majority by 2 seats The mainstream media is full of reports of how the U.S. House of Representatives might turn Democratic, because national polls or a generic ballot show that Democrats are ahead, perhaps by enough to make up the 30-seat deficit they currently suffer. That sort of prediction is ridiculous. Smart voters know that national polls are irrelevant to individual House races -- the only way to analyze House races is by making predictions in individual districts. Just about everyone in the mainstream media is too lazy or too ignorant to undertake that analysis, because it is hard work. We at OnTheIssues.org have done the district-by-district analysis, which we present below, followed by our scoring criteria so you can apply your own analysis later. Our summary prediction first. Currently the GOP holds a House majority of 30 seats. Category A: First we list 24 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win. Category B: Then we list 18 Republican-held districts where we make a 50-50 chance of a Democratic takeover, meaning we predict that 9 will turn Democratic. That totals to 33 districts turning from Republican to Democrat -- which is enough to overcome the current 30-seat Republican majority. Category C: But finally, we list 5 Democrat-held districts where we predict a sure Republican win -- which means a net 28 turnovers, 2 shy of the majority. Category A: 24 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win Arizona 2 (R+3) Martha McSally loses to Victoria Steele Colorado 6 (D+1) Mike Coffman loses to Morgan Carroll Florida 10 (D+9) Dan Webster switched to FL-11; takeover by Val Demings Florida 13 (D+3) David Jolly loses to former Gov. Charlie Crist Florida 26 (Even) Carlos Curbelo loses to former Rep. Joe Garcia Illinois 10 (D+8) Bob Dold loses to former Rep. Brad Schneider Iowa 1 (D+5) Rod Blum loses to Monica Vernon Iowa 3 (Even) David Young loses to Jim Mowrer Maine 2 (D+2) Bruce Poliquin loses to State Sen. Emily Cain Michigan 1 (R+5) Dan Benishek retiring; takeover by Lon Johnson Michigan 6 (R+1) Fred Upton loses to Paul Clements Michigan 7 (R+3) Tim Walberg loses to State Rep. Gretchen Driskell Minnesota 3 (R+2) Erik Paulsen loses to State Sen. Terri Bonoff Nevada 3 (Even) Joe Heck retiring; takeover by Jacky Rosen Nevada 4 (D+4) Cresent Hardy loses to Ruben Kihuen New Hampshire 1 (R+1) Frank Guinta loses to former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter New York 19 (D+1) Chris Gibson retiring; takeover by former Gov. candidate Zephyr Teachout New York 21 (Even) Elise Stefanik loses to Mike Derrick New York 24 (D+5) John Katko loses to Colleen Deacon Pennsylvania 8 (R+1) Mike Fitzpatrick loses to State Rep. Steve Santarsiero Texas 23 (R+3) Will Hurd loses to former Rep. Pete Gallego Virginia 4 (D+8) Randy Forbes lost primary; takeover by Donald McEachin Virginia 10 (R+2) Barbara Comstock loses to LuAnn Bennett Wisconsin 8 (R+2) Reid Ribble retiring; takeover by Tom Nelson Category B: 18 Republican-held districts where we predict a 50-50 chance of a Democratic takeover (net gain of 9 Democrats) California 10 (R+1) Jeff Denham 50/50 chance of losing to Michael Eggman California 25 (R+3) Steve Knight 50/50 chance of losing to Bryan Caforio California 49 (R+4) Darrell Issa 50/50 chance of losing to Doug Applegate Colorado 3 (R+5) Scott Tipton 50/50 chance of losing to Gail Schwartz Florida 7 (R+2) John Mica 50/50 chance of losing to Stephanie Murphy Florida 27 (R+1) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 50/50 chance of losing to Scott Fuhrman Illinois 12 (Even) Mike Bost 50/50 chance of losing to C.J. Baricevic Michigan 8 (R+2) Mike Bishop 50/50 chance of losing to Suzanna Shkreli Michigan 11 (R+4) Dave Trott 50/50 chance of losing to Anil Kumar Minnesota 2 (R+2) John Kline (retiring); 50/50 chance of takeover by John Howe New Jersey 5 (R+4) Scott Garrett 50/50 chance of losing to Josh Gottheimer New York 1 (R+2) Lee Zeldin 50/50 chance of losing to Anna E. Throne-Holst New York 22 (R+3) Richard Hanna (retiring); 50/50 chance of takeover by Kim A. Myers New York 23 (R+3) Tom Reed 50/50 chance of losing to John Plumb Pennsylvania 6 (R+2) Ryan Costello 50/50 chance of losing to Mike Parrish Pennsylvania16 (R+4) Joe Pitts 50/50 chance of losing to Christina Hartman Virginia 5 (R+5) Robert Hurt 50/50 chance of losing to Jane Dittmar Washington 8 (R+1) Dave Reichert 50/50 chance of losing to Santiago Ramos Category C: 5 Democratic-held districts where we predict a sure Republican win Arizona 1 (R+4) Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring); takeover by Former Secretary of state Ken Bennett Florida 2 (R+18) Gwen Graham (retiring); takeover by Ken Sukhia Florida 18 (R+3) Patrick Murphy (retiring); takeover by Randy Perkins Nebraska 2 (R+4) Brad Ashford loses to Don Bacon New York 3 (Even) Steve Israel loses to Jack Martins Prediction methodology We use a "meta-analysis" of looking at the averages of several polls simultaneously, as well as the partisan voting history in the district. Such analyses are available on Wikipedia and in numerous other sources. First we determine "competitive" districts, where several polling organizations indicate that the incumbent party might lose. Then we look at the actual opponents; they must meet several criteria: They must have a web presence (a professional campaign website, and presence in newspaper reports) They must have an "issues" section on their website (we refuse to predict any candidate can win without a platform -- and we found MANY such candidates!) They must be within "striking distance," i.e. within 4 percentage points, a typical margin-of-error on polls. Meeting those criteria "certifies" a challenger as winnable and hence in Category A; missing one puts them into the 50-50 category B Previous elective office moves a candidate upward; the scale shifts to 5 percentage points. Applying these same criteria in October might yield somewhat different results; we will re-run the analysis then, but you can re-run it yourself, including the judgment call of category assignment. For more: Members of the House of Representatives On the Issues. Mike Pence vs. Tim Kaine On the Issues: Aug. 8, 2016 Issue coverage of vice-presidential candidates OnTheIssues has published on Amazon our issues-based coverage of the vice-presidential candidates in comparison to the presidential candidates. A sample: On International Issues Tim Kaine Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Mike Pence Pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens strongly favors favors strongly opposes strongly opposes Support & expand free trade favors mixed opinion opposes strongly favors Support American Exceptionalism strongly opposes opposes favors strongly favors Expand the military strongly favors mixed opinion strongly favors strongly favors Avoid foreign entanglements favors opposes favors opposes For more: Donal Trump & Mike Pence vs. Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine On the Issues, by OnTheIssues. Democratic National Convention: July 25-28, 2016 Hillary Clinton picks Sen. Tim Kaine (D, VA) for Vice President Highlights of our Tim Kaine coverage 2012 Virginia Senate Debate (Kaine would resign as Senator upon winning the Vice Presidency) 2012 Democratic National Convention speech (as 2012 Senate candidate) 2012 Virgnia Senate campaign website (excerpts from 2012 race) 2009 State of the State speech (as Governor of Virginia) Democratic Response to 2006 State of the Union speech (responding to Pres. George W. Bush) Full coverage of Kaine's issue stances Highlights of also-rans in the Veepstakes: A Fighting Chance, by Elizabeth Warren (Senator, D, NJ) Outsider in the White House, by Bernie Sanders (Senator, I, VT) The New Black Politician: Cory Booker & Newark (Senator, D, NJ) Julian Castro on the issues (Secretary of HUD & former mayor of San Antonio) Against the Tide, by Lincoln Chafee (Governor, I, RI) Promises to Keep, by Joe Biden (V.P., D, DE) For more: Trump vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues, by OnTheIssues. Republican National Convention: July 18-21, 2016 Donald Trump picks Gov. Mike Pence (R, OH) for Vice President Highlights of our Mike Pence coverage 2016 Indiana Gubernatorial race (Pence has now withdrawn) 2015 State of the State speech to Indiana legislature Syrian Refugee crisis (Pence's and other governors' opinions) 2014 State of the State speech Planned Bullyhood, by Karen Handel (2012 book mentioning Pence) 2010 House Q&A with Pres. Obama A Tea Party Manifesto, by Rep. Dick Armey (2010 book mentioning Pence) Speech to 2008 CPAC Full coverage of Pence's issue stances Highlights of also-rans in the Veepstakes: A Time for Truth, by Ted Cruz (Senator, R, Texas) Every Other Monday, by John Kasich (Governor, R, Ohio) American Dreams, by Marco Rubio (Senator, R, Florida) Tough Choices, by Carly Fiorina (CEO, R, California) God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy, by Mike Huckabee (Governor, R, Arkansas) Bella's Gift, by Rick Santorum (Senator, R, Pennsylvania) Unintimidated, by Scott Walker (Governor, R, Wisconsin) Government Bullies, by Rand Paul (Senator, R, Kentucky) Immigration Wars, by Jeb Bush (Governor, R, Florida) For more: Trump vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues, by OnTheIssues. One resignation, one special election, one death: June 9-30, 2016 5th resignation from 114th Congress June 9: A special election was held on June 7 to replace John Boehner (R, OH-8); the winner was Warren Davidson (R) who was sworn in on June 9th. June 23: Chaka Fattah (D, PA-2) resigned from the 114th Congress effective June 23, 2016, after losing the Democratic primary to Dwight Evans on April 27, 2016. The citizens of the 2nd district of Pennsylvania will hence have no representative until Nov. 8, 2016, when a special election will be held to fill the seat. July 20: Mark Takai (D, HI-1) died in office; he was not running for re-election. Colleen Hanabusa is the frontrunner for November. For more: Donal Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Jill Stein (G) vs. Gary Johnson (L) On the Issues, by OnTheIssues. Final Primaries: June 4-7, 2016 Hillary Clinton clinches Democratic nomination; Trump clinches GOP nomination The 2016 primaries have ended, except for the District of Columbia next week. Hillary Clinton has clinched the nomination whether counting the superdelegates, the pledged delegates, or the popular vote. Donald Trump nowhasenough pledged delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican convention. Democratic delegates | Republican delegates on June 4,5, and 7: -------------------- | ---------------------------------------- Hillary Bernie | Donald Ted John Withdrawn Uncommitted Clinton Sanders | Trump Cruz Kasich Candidates Delegates California Primary 270 199 | 169 0 0 0 0 Montana Primary 10 11 | 27 0 0 0 0 North Dakota Primary 5 13 | New Jersey Primary 75 47 | 51 0 0 0 0 New Mexico Primary 18 16 | 24 0 0 0 0 South Dakota Primary 10 10 | 29 0 0 0 0 Puerto Rico Primary 36 24 | Virgin Islands Caucus 6 1 | === === | === === === === ===== Total elected delegates on Final Primary, June 4-7: 430 321 300 0 0 0 Previous elected delegates: 2,144 1,285 966 540 148 209 54 Pledged superdelegates (estimate): 467 27 8 18 4 47 106 -------------------- --------------------------------------------------- Grand Total: 3,041 1,633 1,274 558 152 256 160 Capture point: 2,383 delegates needed; 1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination. What's Next? Monday 18 July - Thursday 21 July 2016: Republican National Convention in Philadelphia PA Monday 25 July - Thursday 28 July 2016: Democratic National Conventionin Cleveland OH Thursday 4 August - Sunday 7 August 2016: Green Party National Convention in Houston TX For more: Donal Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Jill Stein (G) vs. Gary Johnson (L) On the Issues, by OnTheIssues.

Libertarian Party Convention: May 28-29, 2016

The pair form a political team of two former Republican governors that Johnson declared to be the most formidable third-party ticket in the modern era, one that he promised would thrust Libertarians from the fringe of American politics to �major party status� in a period of widespread mistrust of both the Republican and Democratic parties.

With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton registering as two of the least liked and most mistrusted politicians in the country, many Libertarians see an opening � and a desire � for an alternative. And Johnson is the only other candidate likely to appear on the ballot in every state.

Raising more money is supposed to be the big advantage of selecting Weld, who served as a fundraiser for Mitt Romney. �He really likes fundraising and he�s connected,� Johnson said. �And I really hate fundraising and I�m not connected.�

Their goal, in particular, is to loosen the wallets of the many disaffected and libertarian-leaning Republicans turned off by Trump�s bombastic rhetoric and shifting policy stands by offering them an alternative of two former Republican governors.

Most potential financiers of a Libertarian ticket understand the goal isn�t so much to win the White House but to spread their limited government, socially liberal, fiscally conservative, anti-war, pro-drug legalization message into the national consciousness.

�There�s no question that both Trump and Clinton are polarizing but for people to choose Gary Johnson they need to know that he�s running,� said Roger Stone, who advised Johnson�s Libertarian bid in 2012 and is now a supporter and informal adviser to Trump. �Four years ago, 75 percent of the voters told us they wished there was another choice. Well, there was another choice it�s just that nobody knew about it.�

Cruz and Kasich withdraw: May 3-10, 2016

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on May 3-10
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      John    Withdrawn    Uncommitted
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz    Kasich   Candidates   Delegates
Guam Primary                9          3       |
Indiana Primary            46         44       |    57         0         0          0            0
Nebraska Primary                               |    36         0         0          0            0
West Virginia Primary      19         17       |    34         0         0          0            0
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===       ===        ===        =====
Total elected delegates on May 3-10:
                           74         64           127         0         0          0            0
Previous elected delegates:
                        2,144      1,285           966       540       148       209            54
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         27             8        18         4        47           106
                        --------------------     ---------------------------------------------------
Grand Total:            2,685      1,376         1,101       558       152       256           160
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?
• We turn our attention to the general election with our paperback book "Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues".

• How do the two presumptive nominees compare on the issues? Forget about polls; forget about politicking; -- what would Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump each do as president? This book digs up Hillary's and Donald's issue stances on over 100 key issues, from voting records, debates, memoirs, biographies -- all of the sources that the mainstream media SHOULD investigate, but never do. An ideal book for actually answering serious questions about issue stances and policy plans -- keep it on your coffeetable to spark a conversation, or bring it to events to answer substantive questions.

Acela Primary: April 19-26, 2016

Did they clinch their nominations? (The answer is YES for Hillary, but Bernie says no; the answer is NO for Trump, but Trump says yes).
• These contests were called "the Acela Primary" because the Northeast Amtrak "Acela" train goes through each of these states.

• The New York Primary on April 19 was a blowout for both home-state residents Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

• The other 5 states (all smaller than New York), on April 26, solidifed the lead of both Trump and Clinton. Both are now claiming to be their party's "presumptive nominee."

• The mainstream media reported that Bernie Sanders "won" the Rhode Island primary because he won the popular vote 55%-43%. But Hillary won the delegate count (including 9 superdelegates); that's the only count that matters so we report that.

• Pennsylvania has LOTS of "Uncommitted Delegates" -- and we also counted up the other states, too (many states have SOME uncommitted delegates). An "uncommitted delegate" means they are elected in the primary, but they don't say who they commit to voting for, at the convention. It's effectively the same as "superdelegates" on the Democratic side, but we count them separately because they're in the news.

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on April 19 & 26
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      John     Withdrawn     Uncommitted
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz    Kasich    Candidates    Delegates
Connecticut Primary        42         26       |    28         0        0                        0
Delaware Primary           17          9       |    16         0        0                        0
Maryland Primary           77         35       |    38         0        0                        0
New York Primary          178        108       |    90         0        5                        0
Pennsylvania Primary      116         75       |    17         0        0                       54
Rhode Island Primary       20         13       |    11         3        5
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===       ===       ===          =====
Total elected delegates on Acela Primary April 19-26:
                          450        266           200         3        10                      54
Previous elected delegates:
                        1,694      1,019           766       537       138       209
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         27             8        18         4        47           106
                        --------------------     ---------------------------------------------------
Grand Total:            2,611      1,312           974       558       152       256           160
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?

On the Republican side:
• Donald Trump claims after this big victory to be the "presumptive nominee." Certainly, he is the "prohibitive frontrunner," but NOT assured of winning on the first ballot at the convention.

• It is now impossible for Ted Cruz to win on the first ballot (if all of the remaining delegates went to Cruz, he'd still come up shy of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch). And it's been impossible for Kasich for a while now.

• But it is still not a sure thing that Trump will reach the "capture point" of 1,237 delegates: he COULD do it, if he wins most of the remaining primaries, but it's not a sure thing.

• Trump's assertion that he is the "presumptive nominee" REALLY means that he will enter the convention with a large plurality of delegates, and if he is NOT nominated, he'll scream that the system is "rigged". He's right -- it IS rigged -- but Cruz may play the rigged rules to his favor.

• The day after the Acela primary, Cruz announced that Carly Fiorina would be his V.P. choice -- playing to women voters and California voters for the upcoming primary there (the largest in the nation).
  
  On the Democratic side:

• Hillary Clinton is now, in fact, the "presumptive nominee," but she has not asserted so, because it would insult Sanders' supporters.

• Hillary this week exceeded the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination, if the superdelegates are counted. Without the superdelegates, Hillary has not yet clinched -- but will do so in a couple of weeks.

• Bernie Sanders points out that superdelegates might change their loyalty, so they should not be counted. Sanders has enough campaign funding to continue campaigning until the convention, and promises to do so.

Three more state contests: April 5-16, 2016

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on April 5-16
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      John    Withdrawn    Uncommitted
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz    Kasich   Candidates   Delegates
Colorado Convention                            |     0        34        0                      4
Wisconsin Primary          44         49       |     6        36        0
Wyoming Caucus             11          7       |
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===       ===        ===       =====
Total elected delegates on April 5-16:
                           55         56             6        70         0                     4
Previous elected delegates:
                        1,227        992           752       449       134        162
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         27             8        18         4         47        106
                        --------------------     -------------------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,694      1,019           766       537       138        209        110
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?
• We did some research into the question "Has this happened before?" and came up with the most interesting answer: "Yes, Abraham Lincoln's 1860 convention was very similar to 2016." Lincoln WON the nomination (and the 1860 election against a Democrat) despite losing on the FIRST ballot at the Republican convention. Here are the details from 1860, with its modern analogies, as researched from Lincoln's classic biography, Team of Rivals:

• Abraham Lincoln (Illinois Representative) entered the 1860 convention as the underdog, and lost the first ballot 173-102. This is Ted Cruz's likely position on the first ballot. Lincoln then wooed delegates and gained delegates on each ballot; that seems to be Cruz's strategy too.

• William Seward (New York Governor) entered the 1860 convention as the favorite, but there was a substantial "Stop Seward" movement, analogous to the "Stop Trump" movement in 2016. Seward claimed, like Trump, to be the "presumptive nominee", and hence did not attempt to woo delegates (like Trump).

• Seward beat Lincoln on the SECOND ballot also, 184-181, but it was closer than the first ballot. Lincoln pulled ahead on the 3rd ballot, and won on the 4th ballot. Seward then became Lincoln's Secretary of State, and became most famous for "Seward's Folly" (the purchase of Alaska from Russia).

• Three other candidates entered the convention with a significant number of delegates:
  • Simon Cameron (Pennsylvania Senator), who became Lincoln's Secretary of Defense (this is analogous to Marco Rubio's position in 2016; he STILL has more delegates than Kasich!)
  • Salmon Chase (Ohio Senator), who became Lincoln's Secretary of the Treasury (this is analogous to John Kasich's position in 2016; he is likely to come in 4th place on the 1st ballot)
  • Edward Bates (Missouri Representative), who became Lincoln's Attorney General (this might be Chris Christie's position in 2016; several other former candidates do have some committed delegates too!)

• The four leading candidates who lost in the 1860 convention all were appointed to Abraham Lincoln's cabinet -- which is where the term "Team of Rivals" comes from.

• That is one way the 2016 GOP contest could end up: with Cruz winning and appointing the others to his Cabinet!

North Dakota delegates decided: April 3, 2016

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on April 3
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      John     Withdrawn
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz    Kasich    Candidates
North Dakota Convention                        |     1         8        0
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===       ===       ===
Total elected delegates on Sunday April 3:
                            0          0             1         8        0
Previous elected delegates:
                        1,227        992           751       441       134       162
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         27             8        18         4        47
                        --------------------     ------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,694      1,019           760       467       138       209
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?
• What does all of that political trivia mean for nominating a candidate for president? It means, at the Republican nominating convention, in this year's close race, every delegate matters, so all that political trivia matters when normally it does not.

• At the primaries and caucuses, all that actually gets decided is the NUMBER of delegates committed to each person. The actual PEOPLE who serve as delegates are determined later, at a "state convention" where party members attend and vote for which people fill each delegate slot.

• I will describe below the process from one such delegate-selection convention, which I attended in 2004 to elect the delegates who would represent the Boston area at the convention to nominate John Kerry.

• I worked for the Howard Dean campaign in 2004, but Kerry won all the delegates in his home district of Boston. I organized a group of 20 Dean supporters to attend the delegate-selection convention, which would elect 6 delegates plus 1 alternate delegate (in case one of the 6 could not get to the convention).

• The group of 20 Dean supporters decided in advance that we would all vote for a candidate from Cambridge named Mushtaque Mirza, who was a Kerry supporter, but had been supportive of our efforts for Dean. He was also a State Democratic Committee member and a long-standing party activist -- we thought he was a good choice.

• We also planned to vote for Charles Glick for the alternate delegate position, another party activist and Kerry supporter. Charles had been my college roommate, so when he saw me there, he confided that he was part of the "Menino slate", organized by Mayor Tom Menino of Boston, and while he was happy to receive our support, his "slate" was sure to win and defeat our candidate Mushtaque.

• Charles pointed out a group of three buses that was just arriving; the buses were filled with Russian immigrants, newly naturalized as U.S. citizens. The Russians all lived in the Allston-Brighton area of Boston; Mayor Menino had provided lots of services for them; and in return, they all agreed to come and vote for his preferred slate (and Menino conveniently provided buses and Russian-speaking "handlers").

• Mushtaque happened to speak Russian; so when the group was seated, he addressed them in Russian, saying, "Welcome to democracy; I'd like to make the case for why I should be elected as a delegate..." Their Menino "handler" interjected in Russian, "Do not listen to this man! Your votes are already decided!" and ushered Mushtaque away.

• Mushtaque, and all the candidates for delegate, had an opportunity to make a 5-minute speech; we planned to spend a minute in Russian to give it one more try. Alas, the first vote was to "dispense with speeches and move directly to the delegate vote." We lost that vote to the Menino slate, and Mushtaque went on to lose, and the entire "Menino slate" went on to win, just as predicted.

• That is typical for the delegate selection process: party loyalists are rewarded with the honor of a delegate seat. And the party leaders (like Mayor Menino) decide, in large part, who gets that honor.

• What does that all mean for Donald Trump vs. Ted Cruz? It means that the 19 unbound delegates from North Dakota are all "party regulars," who are much more likely to vote for Cruz than Trump. That logic applies to hundreds of "unbound delegates" -- they will all be party regulars, and their votes are officially all up for grabs, but they are more likely to vote for Cruz than Trump.

• That is why the pundits all say that Trump needs to win on the first ballot -- with bound delegates -- or he will lose the nomination on the 2nd ballot or 3rd ballot (when all delegates become unbound). Trump will attempt to get Trump loyalists elected as delegates -- but there will be the equivalent of "Menino slates" in every vote -- and hence a local decision by local party loyalists on who will vote for Trump on the first ballot -- and who will decide on their own what they will then do on the 2nd and 3rd ballots!

Western Saturday: March 26, 2016

On the Democratic side:
• Bernie Sanders did well in Saturday's primary states -- and this time he did well enough (see below for our analysis of what Bernie Sanders needs to catch Hillary in delegates).

• Bernie got 74% of the elected delegates on March 26 -- 37 out of 142 -- and to catch up with Hillary by the end of the primaries, he needs to get 59% on average!
  
  On the Republican side:

• No Republican contests took place this weekend, but see our mainstream-media-bashing analysis below.

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates as of March 26
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      John     Withdrawn
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz    Kasich    Candidates
Alaska Caucus               3         13       |
Hawaii Caucus               7         18       |
Washington Caucus          27         74       |
                          ===        ===       |
Total elected delegates on Tuesday March 22:
                           37        105
Previous elected delegates:
                        1,190        887           751       441       134       162
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         27             8        18         4        47
                        --------------------     ------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,694      1,019           759       459       138       209
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next? On the Democratic side:
• If Bernie does this well for ALL of the remaining primaries and caucuses, he will win 74% of the remaining 1,779 delegates, or 1,316 delegates, which would bring his total to 2,203. With his current superdelegates, Bernie will end up with 2,230 delegates at the convention -- not quite at the Capture Point of 2,383 delegates.

• That means Bernie would have to do this well for the rest of the primaries, and then persuade 153 of Hillary's pledged superdelegates (out of 887) to support him as well.

• These three caucuses were all in Bernie's "sweet spot": caucuses instead of primaries; not high on black or Latino vote. But this weekend can give Bernie supporters hope!
  
  On the Republican side:

• The Wall Street Journal usually serves as a superior information source, leaning towards the conservative side, but avoiding the usual stupidity of the mainstream media. This week they broke that pattern, and hence join the list of mainstream media that sensible voters should ignore.

• The Wall Street Journal wrote about last week's primaries: "Mr. Cruz took all 40 of Utah's delegates, yet his already steep path to the nomination outside of a contested convention became even rockier. He must win 85% of the outstanding delegates�a task akin to winning a division in Major League Baseball after being 25 games out of first place on Labor Day --when there are only about 30 games left in the season."

• That analysis would be reasonable if Cruz were trying to win a majority of the delegates -- indeed that is the same analysis we apply above to Bernie Sanders. But Cruz is NOT trying to win a majority of delegates -- he is trying to stop Donald Trump from winning a majority of delegates!

• To stop Trump from winning a majority of delegates, Cruz (plus Kasich plus the withdrawn candidates) need to win 1,237 delegates. It's that parenthetical "plus" that the Wall Street Journal ignores. Since Kasich plus the withdrawn candidates have 347 delegates, those contribute to forcing Trump to face an open convention.

• Hence the "magic number" for Cruz is 1,237 minus 347, or 890 delegates. Cruz is 52% of the way there.

• The "magic number" for Trump is 1,237 delegates -- his goal is to win a majority in the primaries so there won't be an open convention. Trump is 61% of the way there.

• This math assumes that an open convention will not nominate Donald Trump. The Cruz campaign knows that, and can play that to their advantage -- by forcing an open convention, Cruz can then lobby the superdelegates (Republican Party offiicals) and is much more likely to persuade them than is Trump.

• Bottom line: Don't listen to the Wall Street Journal -- this race is too close to call!

Western Tuesday: March 22, 2016

On the Democratic side:
• Bernie Sanders did well in the Western primary states -- but not quite well enough! (see below for our analysis of what Bernie Sanders needs to catch Hillary in delegates).

• Bernie got 58% of the elected delegates on March 22 -- 76 out of 131 -- but to catch up with Hillary by the end of the primaries, he needs to get 59%!

• In other words, for ALL of the remaining primaries and caucuses, Bernie as to do AS WELL as he did on March 22, PLUS a little bit better sometimes, PLUS he needs to convince more than 200 superdelegates to change their pledges. That's a very tall order!
  
  On the Republican side:

• Donald Trump did well in the Western primary states -- but not quite well enough!

• Trump and Cruz each won a winner-take-all state; but Kasich promises to stay in the race indefinitely (hoping to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).

• We switch our counting below, as of today, to those three candidates plus "all other Withdrawn Candidates." The withdrawn candidates still matter because their elected delegates are still pledged to vote for them on the first ballot (their superdelegates are not pledged to do so -- they usually change allegiance, and we count that too).

• As of today, a total of 1,565 Republican delegates have been elected or pledged. Trump has captured 48% of those delegates -- which is less than the 50% required to win on the first ballot.

• There are dozens more contests coming up -- but if Kasich and Cruz stay in, it will be a very close call whether Trump gets over 50% of the delegates or not!

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on March 22
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      John     Withdrawn
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz    Kasich    Candidates
American Samoa Caucus                          |     1         1         0
Arizona Primary            44         31       |    58         0         0
Idaho Caucuses              5         18       |
Utah Caucuses               6         27       |     0        40         0
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===       ===
Total elected delegates on Tuesday March 22:
                           55         76            59        41         0         0
Previous elected delegates:
                        1,135        811           692       400       134       162
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         27             8        18         4        47
                        --------------------     ------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,657        914           759       459       138       209
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?
• Donald Trump is on track to win a plurality (48%) of delegates, but not a majority (50%), which means no candidate will win on the first ballot at the convention.

• The first ballot means the initial vote of all the delegates at the Republican convention. Elected delegates are obligated to vote for their pledged candidate on the first ballot. That vote is public, so this rule is easily enforced (if delegates break their pledge, everyone knows about it).

• At a normal convention, where one candidate has a clear majority of elected delegates from the primaries, the first ballot is just a formality. Each delegate casts their vote, and the results are tallied state-by-state, and at the end, the formal nomination is announced.

• At a brokered convention, where no candidate has a majority of elected delegates from the primaries, the first ballot counts the number of elected delegates plus superdelegates (the Republicans have fewer superdelegates than Democrats, and different titles, but the same function) in support of each candidate.

• Marco Rubio and other withdrawn candidates will still get some votes on the first ballot, because they have delegates pledged to vote for them.

• The second ballot occurs if the first ballot does not produce a majority vote winner. It does not occur immediately -- there is time in between for negotiating -- that is why it is called a Brokered Convention.

• In between the balloting, additional candidates might get nominated. There is a rule requiring that any nominee have won at least 8 states, but there could be a vote to waive that rule, and then anyone could get nominated. More likely, candidates with fewer delegates (like Kasich or Rubio) will make a deal with candidates with more delegates (like Cruz or Trump). That deal-making is the "brokering" of the "brokered convention."

• The second ballot vote has no rules for whom the elected delegates vote for (this actually depends on each state, but MOST states release the delegates from their pledges after the first ballot).

• The third ballot occurs if the second ballot does not produce a majority vote winner. The timing of the second, third, and subsequent ballots is up to the chair of the convention (in other words, up to the Republican Party establishment).

• There ARE published rules, but the delegates can vote to "waive" any rules at any time. Since the Republican Party officials run the convention, they have a lot of control over votes about waiving rules. But that's basically the process!

"SEC Primary" Super Tuesday: March 15, 2016

On the Democratic side:
• March 15 was a very good day for Hillary Clinton: she won every one of the 5 states, for a net gain of almost 100 delegates.

• Bernie Sanders no longer has any clear path to gain enough delegates to overcome Hillary's lead, even ignoring her overwhelming superdelegate lead. Further analysis below.
  
  On the Republican side:

• March 15 was a very bad day for Marco Rubio: he lost his own home state to Donald Trump, and Florida was winner-take-all so Rubio got zero delegates as a consolation prize. Rubio also fared poorly in several other proportional contests and only gained 6 delegates for the day, out of a possible 300+. Those results showed Rubio that his campaign was hopeless, so he "suspended" the campaign (details below).

• March 15 was an okay day for John Kasich; he won the winner-take-all state of Ohio (his home state) and hence maintained enough credibility to continue the campaign. Kasich gained more delegates in the SEC primary than Ted Cruz, but is still far behind.

• March 15 was a very good day for Donald Trump: he gained more than 200 delegates for the day.

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on Tuesday March 15
                        --------------------   | ----------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      Marco      John
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz     Rubio      Kasich
Florida Primary           116         58       |    99         0        0          0
Illinois Primary           58         45       |    54         9        0          6
Missouri Primary           36         35       |    47        15        0          0
North Carolina Primary     60         47       |    30        27        6          9
Ohio Primary               80         63       |     0         0        0         66
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===      ===        ===
Total elected delegates on Tuesday March 15:
                          350        248           230        42        6         81
Previous elected delegates:
                          785        563           462       358      151         53
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          467         26             8        15       28          4
                        --------------------     -------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,602        837           700       415      185        138
Capture point:          2,383 delegates needed;  1,237 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?
• Trump's supports and Sanders' supporters are both now demanding democracy -- but the nominating process is not actually based on democracy -- it is based on "oligarchy."

• "Oligarchy" means a small group of people decide the outcome of an election, instead of a majority of voters in a pure democracy. The party nominating processes and the party conventions have never been decided by pure democracy.

• On the Republican side, Trump fears a brokered convention where the Republican Party decides a nominee after Trump fails to win a majority of the primary delegates.

• On the Democratic side, Sanders fears that the superdelegates of the Democratic Party will tilt the nomination to Hillary.

• Both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are oligarchies -- When asked about the legitimacy of a brokered convention defeating Trump, one RNC member said today that the Republican Party decides the nominee, not the primary voters.

• The same applies in the Democratic Party -- in both parties, the oligarchy defines the rules of the convention, and runs the convention itself.

• This concept was succinctly phrased, after I complained about the Massachusetts Democratic Party running the convention with a lack of deomcracy, when a Massachusetts Democratic State Committee member said to me, "This isn't democracy; this is an oligarchy! And these people", he said, gesturing to the members of the Democratic State Committee, "are the oligarchs!"
  
  On the Democratic side:

• Bernie Sanders has lost the nomination -- he is not yet mathematically eliminated, but he is now politically eliminated.

• Let's look at the numbers. On the left-hand column are the actual delegate counts, including superdelegates. On the right-hand column, we will accept the Sanders' supporters concept of eliminating superdelegates.

                                                      With              Without
                                                      superdelegates    superdelegates
               Delegates elected so far                 2,427             1,934
               Total delegates at convention            4,479             3,767
               Delegates needed to win convention       2,240 (50%)       1,884 (50%)
               Number of delegates left to elect        2,052             1,833
               Bernie Sanders' delegate count             828 (40%)         802 (41%)
               Sanders needs how many more delegates?   1,555 (76%)       1,082 (59%)
  

• The numbers say, including superdelegates, that Bernie needs to win 76%-24% in all of the remaining primaries.

• Even excluding superdelegates, Bernie needs to win 59%-41% in all of the remaining primaries (the same ratio that Hillary has beaten him, so far).

• 59%-41% in an election is called "a landslide." The most lopsided presidential result ever -- Warren G. Harding in 1920 -- was 60%-34% -- Bernie would have to match that landslide, which would be a historic event -- and IN ADDITION would have to persuade the party to discount the superdelegates.

• It looks like Sanders will stay in despite no longer having a path to victory -- he has plenty of money and plenty of voters in future primaries who would be disappointed by NOT being able to vote for him! But Sanders' purpose now is to push Hillary to the left, by raising his key issues -- his purpose is no longer to win.
  
  On the Republican side:

• Most of Rubio's 185 delegates are still obligated to vote for Rubio on the first ballot at the convention. We say "most" because each state makes their own rules; some automaticlly convert Rubio's delegates to unbound "superdelegate" status on the first ballot; most do so on the second ballot.

• This race has come down to Trump vs. non-Trump; in that context, all of Rubio's delegates should be considered to support Cruz, and if there is a brokered convention, that is what will occur (on the 2nd or 3rd ballot, especially). That bodes well for Cruz, since the same applies to Kasich's growing delegate count, as well as the other candidates with smaller delegate counts.

• The bottom line is that Trump must win a majority of delegates outright, or face a brokered convention where Cruz will win on the 2nd or 3rd ballot.

• Trump's supporters can legitimately complain that the RNC's attitude opposes democracy. But the RNC is an oligarchy! We see Cruz benefiting strongly from Rubio's withdrawal, so Cruz will gain on Trump -- that leads to a brokered convention, run by oligarchs who do not like Donald Trump. next week's contests will determine if Cruz can pull it off.

Five more contests: March 12, 2016

Territorial delegates?
• We have received several readers' emails questioning why Puerto Rico gets delegates in last week's primary, and that applies as well to why the Northern Marianas and the District of Columbia get delegates in this week's primary. The answer is "Because they are United States citizens."

• The United States owns several "insular territories" which are not states: Puerto Rico, the Northern Marianas, the District of Columbia, American Samoa, Guam, and the Virgin Islands. All of the residents of those territories are U.S. citizens, although they don't have full voting rights.

• None of the territories participate in the electoral college, which means residents can cast votes for president in November, but their votes do not actually count. In 2000, Puerto Rico attempted to gain electoral votes, but they lost the case, with the court asserting that they must apply for statehood to gain electoral votes (Puerto Rico would have cast 8 electoral votes for Al Gore, which would have given Gore a presidential victory over George W. Bush).

• The District of Columbia does get one Representative in the U.S. House, Eleanor Holmes Norton, but her vote does not count in voting totals (she may introduce bills and cast a vote, however). D.C. has no Senate representation, and since they do pay federal taxes, their automobile license plates are adorned with the slogan, "Taxation Without Representation." There is a "statehood movement" to change D.C.'s status by creating a 51st state called "New Columbia." D.C. already DOES have three electoral votes in the general election for president, because of its special constitutional status.

• The Northern Marianas, Guam, and Samoa are Pacific islands which have long been U.S. territories. Before World War II, that category included Hawaii and the Phillipines. Hawaii became a state after WWII, and the Phillipines became an independent country. The Northern Marianas, Guam and Samoa are smaller, so their status is just "territories." But they still get delegates to the party conventions!

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on Tuesday March 8
                        --------------------   | --------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      Marco     John
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz     Rubio     Kasich
Democrats Abroad primary    4          9       |
District of Columbia Primary                   |     0         0       10         9
Guam Caucus                                    |     0         1        0         0
Northern Marianas caucus    4          2       |     9         0        0         0
Wyoming Caucus                                 |     1         9        1         0
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===      ===       ===
Total elected delegates on Saturday March 12:
                            8         11            10        10       11         9
Previous elected delegates:
                          782        554           462       358      151        53
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          455         22             8        15       28         4
                        --------------------     ------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,245        587           480       383      190        66
Capture point:          2,240 delegates needed;  1,442 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?
• So how did the voting go in the territories?

• On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton gained a couple of delegates; she accomplished the same in Samoa on March 1.

• The Democrats also hold a primary for "Democrats abroad" (i.e. U.S. citizens residing overseas). That vote finished up this week but the counting will take some time (because it's worldwide); so far only 1 out of 17 delegates have been assigned.

• On the Republican side, Donald Trump and each of his three remaining opponents gained a couple handfuls of delegates each.

• The small delegate counts this weeekend would be meaningless in a normal election, but with the prospect of a brokered convention looming, every delegate counts (much like, in 2000, no one expected that Puerto Rico could have been a decisive electoral vote, had they been granted electoral votes!)

• Ted Cruz won the Guam Caucus, which will send 9 delegates to the Republican convention, but 8 remain "uncommitted" until the convention.

• Marco Rubio won D.C. -- only a few delegates but perhaps relevant because of another Republican convention rule known as the "8-state rule": At a brokered convention, a candidate can get nominated even after losing the primaries, if the first ballot does not result in a nominee, but only if that candidate has won eight primaries or caucuses.

• That 8-state cutoff was already achieved by Trump (NH, NV, SC, AS, AR, GA, MA, TN, VT, VA, KY, LA, HI, MI, MS), and was achieved this weekend by Cruz (IA, AK, OK, TX, KS, ME, ID, GU, WY).

• Rubio has only won three state contests so far (MN, PR, DC) and has some work ahead of him to make the 8-state cutoff (as does John Kasich, still with zero state wins, but leading in his home state of Ohio this coming Tuesday).

• You might wonder, "Is the 8-state rule only about states? Do Guam and Puerto Rico count as part of the eight?" We read the Republican convention rules, and they seem to hint that territorial victories DO count -- but these are RULES, not LAWS -- that means the delegates can vote to interpret and/or override the rules at the convention. In this strangest of elections, those sorts of trivial rules may well matter -- the rules were NOT written with any expectation that they would matter! -- if a brokered convention occurs, those trivialities will be subject to many delegate votes, and hence lots of pundit interpretation!

Six more contests: March 8, 2016

On the Democratic side:
• Hillary Clinton widened her lead over Bernie Sanders on March 8.

• Sanders won Michigan, a big state with 130 delegates, but with proportional delegate allocation, Sanders gained only 8 delegates over Hillary.

• Hillary won Mississippi, a smaller state with only 36 delegates, and gained more delegates than she lost in Michigan (i.e. a net gain of 20 delegates for the day).

• This further weakens Sanders' strategy to petition the superdelegates to vote based on their state results, instead of holding to their pledged support of Hillary.
  
  On the Republican side:

• Marco Rubio had such a bad result today that rumors are swirling that he will drop out before next week's Florida winner-take-all primary to avoid an embarrassing defeat in his home state.

• Donald Trump widened his lead on Ted Cruz, but Cruz did well, making the delegate race look more like a two-person contest.

• John Kasich did well in Michigan, setting him up for a big victory in the winner-take-all Ohio contest next week.

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on Tuesday March 8
                        --------------------   | --------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      Marco      John
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz     Rubio      Kasich
Hawaii Caucus                                  |    11         7        1          0
Idaho Primary                                  |    12        20        0          0
Michigan Primary           61         69       |    25        17        0         17
Mississippi Primary        32          4       |    25        15        0          0
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===      ===        ===
Total elected delegates on Tuesday March 8:
                           93         73            73        59        1         17
Previous elected delegates:
                          689        481           389       299      150         36
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          455         22             8        15       28          4
                        --------------------     -------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,237        576           470       373      179         57
Capture point:          2,240 delegates needed;  1,442 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

What's Next?
• The "SEC Tuesday" follows in one week, on March 15.

• That set of primaries will likely determine if Mitt Romney's strategy for a brokered convention will work, or if Donald Trump can get over 50% of the delegates and hence avoid a brokered convention.

• On the Democratic side, "SEC Tuesday" is Sanders' last chance to make his strategy work: if Sanders gains delegates relative to Hillary next week, with hundreds of delegates available, he has a legitimate claim to the superdelegates. If Hillary widens her lead next week, Sanders' campaign will become politically incapable of catching up (not quite mathematically impossible, but POLITICALLY impossible, since all future Democratic contests are proportional).

• To understand next week's SEC Tuesday, voters must understand the difference between proportional contests and winner-take-all contests.

• The Democrats have all proportional contests: the winner gets MORE delegates, but proportional to the popular vote. Proportional contests mean candidates can't score massive victories -- just small, incremental victories.

• Next week's Republican contests include some winner-take-all contests: the winner of the popular vote gets all of the delegates, and even if the candidate in second place gets just one vote fewer than the winner, the second-place candidate gets zero delegates.

• There have been some contests already where one candidate won all the delegates (Rubio in PR; Trump in VT; Trump in SC) but those were "winner-take-most" contests. "Winner-takes-most" means the majority vote-getter in each district gets all that district's delegates. In those three contests, the winner got the most votes in every district.

• In contrast "winner-takes-all" means the majority vote-getter in the whole state gets all of that state's delegates.

• The Republican party arranged March 15 as the cutoff for when winner-take-all contests may begin; there are several next Tuesday and then more after that. The intention was to finish off the primaries instead of a long-drawn-out series of contests (which is what the Democrats might experience, with all proportional contests).

• Big upcoming winner-take-all Republican contests:
  • Florida (99 delegates on March 15)
  • Ohio (66 delegates on March 15)
  • Missouri (52 delegates on March 15)
  • Arizona (58 delegates on March 22)
  • Wisconsin (42 delegates on April 5)
  • Indiana (57 delegates on May 3)
  • California (172 delegates on May 24).

Super Saturday primaries: March 5-6, 2016

On the Republican side:
• The mainstream media reported that "Cruz and Trump tied with 2 states apiece" -- but nobody counts states! Ted Cruz won the delegate count (which is the only count that COUNTS) on Super Saturday.

• Cruz won bigger states, and hence more delegates, than Trump, and cut Trump's lead from about 100 to about 80 delegates.

• Marco Rubio won his second contest -- Puerto Rico -- but fell behind further in the delegate count. John Kasich gained some more delegates too, but has fallen further behind.

• Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) (the 2012 nominee for president and hence the leader of the Republican party), denounced Donald Trump in advance of Super Saturday. By "denounced" we mean "anti-endorsed": Romney suggested voting for each of the three remaining candidates in any state where they could beat Trump (especially the winner-take-all states).

• Romney's strategy pushes for a "brokered convention" (which Romney more gently called an "open convention"). See details below the delegate counts.
  
  On the Democratic side:

• Hillary Clinton widened her lead over Bernie Sanders on Super Saturday.

• Sanders' current strategy is that his supporters petition the superdelegates to vote based on their state results, rather than based on previous pledges (overwhelmingly to Hillary). However, for this strategy to work, Sanders must win more elected delegates in the primaries and caucuses -- and so far that has not happened -- he TIED Hillary on Super Saturday but lost ground on delegates last week.

• Sanders' supporters demand too that the media outlets report the elected delegate count, rather than the total including the superdelegate count--we report both below--the problem for Sanders is that he is losing by both counts.

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegates on Super Saturday
                        --------------------   | --------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      Marco      John
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz     Rubio      Kasich
Kansas Caucus              10         23       |     9        24        6          1
Kentucky Caucus                                |    17        15        7          7
Louisiana Primary          38         13       |    18        17        0          0
Maine Caucus                9         16       |     9        12        0          2
Nebraska Caucus            10         15       |
Puerto Rico Primary                            |     0         0       23          0
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===      ===        ===
Total elected delegates on Super Saturday:
                           67         67       |    53        68       36         10
Previous elected delegates:
                          622        414           336       231      114         26
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          443         13             8        15       28          4
                        --------------------     -------------------------------------
Grand Total:            1,132        494           397       314      178         40

What's Next?
• A "brokered convention" means the nominee is not decided in the primaries, i.e., no candidate secures more than 50% of the delegates. Hence the nominee is decided at the convention -- the alternative names are "open convention" (they are "open" to any nominee) or "contested convention" (there is a "contest" for the nomination at the convention).

• In contrast, a "normal convention" is more like a coronation of the nominee, because the nominee has already been decided well before the convention begins. The main excitement at a normal convention is the vice-presidential selection, and perhaps the speeches by some up-and-coming candidates for the next election cycle.

• At the start of a brokered convention, no one knows who the nominee will be -- it is called "brokered" because the delegates "broker" deals -- who will vote for whom, on which ballot.

• When delegates are elected at primaries and caucuses, they are "pledged delegates": that means they are required to vote for their candidate -- but only on the FIRST ballot. If that first ballot does not produce a majority for one candidate, then the convention holds a second ballot, or as many ballots as are needed. The delegates have no rules about whom they vote for, after the first ballot -- that's where the "brokered deals" come in.

• The most recent brokered conventions were in 1952 for the Democrats and 1948 for the Republicans. More recently, the nominee was not known in advance of the 1968 Democratic convention; the 1976 Republican convention; the 1980 Democratic convention; and the the 1984 Republican convention. Those recent conventions had nominees negotiated after the primaries and before the convention; a true "brokered convention" has the nominee negotiated during the convention itself.

• Brokered conventions do occur regularly today for gubernatorial nominations; but they have become rare recently for presidential nominations because primaries and caucuses now take place in every state, with media attention, and the eventual nominee takes a decisive lead sometime during that long process.

• A common practice for negotiating the nominee at a brokered convention is that one candidate agrees to accept the vice-presidential nomination, and tells his delegates to support another candidate for president. The mainstream media this week speculated on a Rubio-Kasich ticket; for that ticket to succeed, the sum of Rubio's and Kasich's delegates would have to exceed 50%.

Super Tuesday primaries: March 1, 2016

On the Democratic side:
• Democrats voted in 9 state primaries, plus 2 caucuses (Colorado and Minnesota), plus one territory (Samoa).

• Bernie Sanders won both caucuses, plus the primaries in Oklahoma and Vermont (his home state). Hillary won the other 8 contests.

• Hillary gained 170 delegates more than Bernie on Super Tuesday. She was already ahead in elected delegates and in superdelegates.

• Bernie's current strategy of persuading superdelegates to change loyalty depends on Bernie being ahead in elected delegates -- that has not been happening.
  
  On the Republican side:

• Republicans have some superdelegates too. When a candidate withdraws, and that candidate endorses another candidate, the withdrawn candidate's superdelegates will likely go to the endorsed candidate. That's not necessarily so, but in the absence of better estimations, we now count that assumption.

• That means Chris Christie's 5 superdelegates count for Donald Trump. There are three other withdrawn candidates with pledged superdelegates -- Jeb Bush with 8; Mike Huckabee with 4; and Rand Paul with 2 -- they will assigned pending any endorsements those former candidates announce.

• Pundits pronounced that Trump won Massachusetts by a wider margin than did Hillary. That's technically true, but misleading: The two primaries are two entirely separate elections, so Trump and Hillary did not compete against each other. Clinton won the Democratic primary with 571,888 out of 1,138,586 votes; Trump won the Republican primary with 298,827 out of 609,832 votes. In other words, Hillary got nearly twice as many votes as Trump in Massachusetts, because so many more people voted in the Democratic primary.

• Pundits were also confused by Jesse Ventura's statement that he would choose between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. TV pundits are easily confused because they think only in terms of two parties; Ventura considers both Sanders and Trump to be anti-establishment iconoclasts (like Ventura himself) and hence he chose between two strong choices. Ventura says he may enter the race if Sanders loses, but would also accept Trump's vice presidential nomination.

                        Democratic delegates   | Republican delegate counts per Super Tuesday state
                        --------------------   | --------------------------------------------------
                         Hillary     Bernie    |  Donald     Ted      Marco      John       Ben
                         Clinton     Sanders   |  Trump      Cruz     Rubio      Kasich     Carson (withdrew)
Alabama primary            44          9       |    36        13        1          0          0
Alaska primary                                 |    11        12        5          0          0
Arkansas primary           22         10       |    17        14        9          0          0
American Samoa caucus       4          2       |
Colorado caucus            28         38       |
Georgia primary            74         28       |    43        17       16          0          0
Massachusetts primary      46         45       |    21         4        8          8          1
Minnesota caucus           30         47       |     8        13       17          0          0
Oklahoma primary           17         21       |    14        16       13          0          0
Tennessee primary          44         23       |    31        14       10          0          0
Texas primary             146         76       |    48       104        3          0          0
Vermont primary             0         16       |     8         0        0          8          0
Virginia primary           62         33       |    17         8       16          5          3
                          ===        ===       |   ===       ===      ===        ===        ===
Total on March 1:         517        348       |   254       215       98         21          4
Previous elected delegates:
                          105         66            82        16       20          5          5
Pledged superdelegates (estimate):
                          443         13             8        15       28          4          0
                        --------------------     --------------------------------------------------
Grand Total March 1:    1,065        427           344       246      146         30          9

What's Next?
• Dr. Ben Carson withdrew after Super Tuesday.

• Hillary is winning in exactly the way we predicted on Jan. 1st; we'll stick with our prediction that Sanders will withdraw just after the March 15 "SEC primary".

• To avoid seeming cocky, our Jan. 1 prediction on the Republican side has already been proven all wrong. Trump has proven himself capable of the "ground game" necessary for winning caucuses, and has even captured some superdelegates. The only way Cruz or Rubio can win now is by one dropping out and supporting the other. The only way Kasich can win now is as the compromise choice at a brokered convention.

• Trump has a big lead now (100 delegates ahead of Cruz, who is 100 ahead of Rubio, who is 100 ahead of Kasich), but there are several big contests coming up.

• The March 15 "SEC primary" may give Trump a decisive lead, or the opposite, because several of the contests are "winner-take-all" (whoever gets the highest popular vote gets all the delegates). So far, there have been no winner-take-all contests: Sanders won all the delegates in Vermont, and Trump won all the delegates in Sourth Carolina, because they won in every district. In contrast....

• Florida on March 15 is a winner-take-all primary with 99 delegates; Rubio is the popular Senator of Florida and will likely win, doubling his current delegate count. If Rubio loses Florida, he will likely drop out.

• Ohio on March 15 is a winner-take-all primary with 66 delegates; Kasich is the popular governor of Ohio and will likely win, tripling his current delegate count. If Kasich loses Ohio, he will likely drop out.

• Other big upcoming winner-take-all Republican contests:
  • Missouri (52 delegates on March 15);
  • Arizona (58 delegates on March 22);
  • Wisconsin (42 delegates on April 5);
  • Indiana (57 delegates on May 3);
  • California (172 delegates on May 24).
  Those contests are designed to finish off the contested primaries and decide a winner -- and they will likely do so!

Nevada and South Carolina primaries: Feb. 20-27, 2016

The South Carolina primaries and Nevada caucuse were held on different days for the two parties (they don't HAVE to be on the same day!). Our observations and the delegate counts resulting from the two new state totals"

• We are thrilled to report that the mainstream media has actually figured out delegate rules (perhaps by reading this website!); they now report the superdelegate counts alongside the delegate counts. Hence we adjust the superdelegate today to use the Associated Press counts (reducing from Hillary's December claim of 500)

• We are also thrilled to report that Bernie Sanders' supporters have actually figured out delegate rules (perhaps by reading this website!); they have a new strategy based on Hillary's huge superdelegate lead: For example, Robert Reich has called for all superdelegates to vote according to their state votes, rather than by pledges (to Hillary). That strategy COULD change our Jan. 1 prediction, but only if voters start seeing superdelegates saying that they are changing their pledges (which has not yet happened at all) by the hundreds.

• On the Republican side, Marco Rubio has taken the lead in superdelegates now that Jeb Bush has withdrawn. We include superdelegates who have publicly transferred their pledge from Jeb or from other withdrawn candidates.

• We checked our historical records and found that the New Hampshire primary is the first time a Jewish candidate has ever won a presidential primary (Joe Lieberman never actually won any primaries in 2000 or 2004).

Supreme Court Justice Scalia dies: Feb. 13, 2016

New Hampshire primaries: Feb. 9 2016

After watching several TV stations' "news" coverage of the New Hampshire primary results, we would like to point out to our readers how to watch these shows intelligently.

1. Do not watch the live returns at all -- they are dependent entirely on which county happens to report first. At the national level, we all know that Florida and Ohio are important "purple states" -- but which are the "purple counties" in New Hampshire? The trickle of returns is meaningless unless you interpret them with a red-blue-purple analysis, and no one can do that except pundits with computers, and even they disagree. Set your alarm clock for 2 or 3 hours after the polls close and take a nap in between -- you won't miss anything!

2. Ignore the polls leading up to each caucus and primary. They try to figure out which voters will go to the polls based on (a) asking; and (b) previous attendance. That ignores (a) voter dissembling to intentionally confound the mainstream media (especially Trump supporters, in NH); and (b) new voters (especially Sanders supports, in NH). Accounting for those shortcomings means all polls are guesswork, so why bother? The polls did not predict a Kasich surge!

3. Fox News rambled on about how Sanders' "huge victory" will open the spigot to lots of campaign cash. In reality, Sanders enjoyed a net gain of 6 delegates -- he's now behind Hillary by 489 delegates instead of 495 delegates behind. That might "open the spigots" to some reegular people who look at polls, but the big-money donors look at the delegate counts.

4. New Hampshire only matters at all because it is the first primary and hence a test of candidates' ability to get out the vote. New Hampshire is too small to matter much in the delegate count (which is why they insist on being first! Otherwise no one would pay any attention to them!) The N.H. Republican primary allocated 20 delegates out of 1,442 needed to win the Republican nomination -- a little over 1%. The N.H. Democratic primary allocated 24 delegates out of 2,240 needed to win the Democratic nomination -- a little under 1%. New Hampshire is a small state. And so is Iowa. CNN rambled on about the "importance" of this evening's events -- but that really means "self-importance" of CNN. N.H. and Iowa are news events -- they make the mainstream media breathless but hardly matter for the purpose of delegate selection.

5. Fox News prattled on and on about Hillary's "strategic mistake" in going to Michigan over the weekend instead of focusing on New Hampshire. Fox News' commentators evidently don't understand arithmetic: Michigan has 147 delegates at stake while New Hampshire offers only 32. Hillary made a decision that she could gain only a delegate or two with extra effort in New Hampshire, but perhaps gain a dozen delegates by making a critical appearance in Michigan at a critical time. That means that Hillary focused on the overall delegate count instead of the "news of the day" in New Hampshire. That's called "strategy" -- not a "strategic mistake".

6. The mainstream media report endlessly on the popular vote percentages -- but they do not matter! All the news networks spent hours studying whether Jeb Bush would pass Ted Cruz in the popular vote -- but the delegate count would not change at all, if he had done so! Both Bush and Cruz earned two delegates each -- and they would have earned two delegates each if Bush had somehow pulled "ahead" of Cruz by 400 votes instead of losing by 400 votes. (This is an ACTUAL "virtual tie", unlike the media reports of popular vote "virtual ties!"

7. Remember that the purpose of primaries and caucuses is to elect delegates to the national nominating conventions, and select a nominee for the general election. The popular vote doesn't matter; "momentum" doesn't matter; and large states matter a LOT more than small states; because the only thing that REALLY matters is the delegate count. We report on the delegate counts resulting from the New Hampshire primary below, because no other results matter.

Iowa caucuses: Feb. 1 2016

The mainstream media reported on the popular vote percentages at the Iowa caucuses, but that isn't the purpose of the caucuses -- their purpose is to elect delegates to the national nominating conventions. We report on the delegate counts resulting from the Iowa caucuses below, because no other results matter.

When you hear TV pundits say the Democratic caucuses in Iowa were a "virtual tie," (because the popular vote was 49.8% to 49.6%), you should shout at your TV that they are wrong -- the delegate count was 29 for Hillary Clinton and 21 for Bernie Sanders, because Democratic county delegate allocations tend to amplify small leads when tallying up into actual people who will serve as delegates to the convention.

The mainstream media usually doesn't bother with actual figures: they simply spout half-truths and expect us to believe them. Knowledgable voters don't believe the mainstream media. The Washington Post wins this week's prize for laziest mainstream media analysis; in their article "analyzing" the Iowa caucus results, they spouted: "For Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, the virtual tie likely means an even split of the 44 delegates." That statement is false; the split was 29-21, not even at all. That would be obvious to anyone looking at the allocation system (which evidently does not include the Washington Post).

When you hear those same TV pundits pontificate about how Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump handily, you can again shout at your TV about how wrong they are -- Cruz gained exactly one delegate on Trump (8 to 7), and Rubio also got 7 -- now THAT'S a "virtual tie". (Republicans use a proportional delegate allocation system so there's no "amplification").

We summarize below the delegate counts including superdelegates. All counts are estimates and you may spot differences depending on what news source you observe -- that's because the actual Iowa representatives won't be selected until their county conventions and statewide convention are held later in 2016. We rank according to the total delegate count: due to the Iowa caucuses, Marco Rubio (not Ted Cruz) took the lead from Jeb Bush (not Donald Trump).

Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump: Jan. 19, 2016

Fourth Democratic primary debate: Jan. 17, 2016

Fox Business Republican primary debate: Jan. 14, 2016

State of the Union speech: Jan. 12, 2016

Gary Johnson (L-NM) announces presidential candidacy: Jan. 6, 2016

Gary Johnson was elected as a Republican as governor of New Mexico. After leaving that post, he ran as the Libertarian nominee for president in 2012. We outline his issue stances in comparison to the Democratic, Republican, and Green Party nominees in our 2012 OnTheIssues book.

Johnson represents the Libertarian Party norm of "socially liberal and economically conservative," as illustrated below.

Predictions for 2016 early primaries: Jan. 1, 2016

OnTheIssues loves Donald Trump, but we think he will drop out of the Republican primary after the first Super Tuesday on March 1. OnTheIssues also loves Bernie Sanders, but we think he will drop out of the Democratic primary after the second Super Tuesday on March 15. Trump's exit will leave the Republican field coalescing around one of the mainstream party candidates (Bush, Cruz, or Rubio). Sanders' exit will end the Democratic primary with Hillary Clinton as the nominee-apparent.

OnTheIssues loves Sanders because he has created a meaningful Democratic primary. Party insiders prefer coronations without opposition -- we think that's bad for both the candidates and the voters. Sanders' presence means Hillary gets to hone her debate skills for the general election, and voters get to see how Hillary responds to challenges from the left. Sanders has accomplished those two things single-handedly: none of the other Democratic contenders were far enough left nor had enough followers. But we predict Sanders will drop out when his delegate numbers become untenable -- shortly after March 15 (details on the left below). In his exit speech, we predict Sanders will claim to have accomplished the challenging task of exposing and altering Hillary's point of view on corporations, on free trade, and on a couple of other issues. But he won�t mention his most important political role: he made Hillary fight for the nomination, which prepares her better for the general election.

OnTheIssues loves Trump because he has single-handedly gotten the American electorate to watch political debates, which has done more good for the American political system than any candidate since Ross Perot. Pundits remember the endless debates of the 2012 election cycle: in 2011-12, a well-watched debate got 5 million viewers. Now that number would be the worst-watched debate of the season. Trump's debate-magnet has spilled over to the Democratic debates as well -- they are setting record viewership too. Obviously, OnTheIssues thinks debates are the best television on television -- but we never expected 20 million Americans to agree with that -- and we credit Trump with that accomplishment. You should too -- regardless of party, regardless of your political beliefs, Trump has been GOOD for politics, because he gets millions of Americans INVOLVED with politics.

But we predict that Trump will withdraw after the first Super Tuesday on March 1, because he'll lose too many delegates to the Republican party establishment. Details on the right below; we make no prediction about whether Trump will run as an independent (we hope so!) because that depends on how the GOP handles his losses and withdrawal. For the general election: we'll make another prediction later in the season, including predictions for the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. But here are the numbers for the primaries:

• Caucuses where Obama won in 2008: IA NV AK CO ID MN ND NE WA ME HI WY
• Caucuses where Hillary won in 2008: NM (Hillary got 14 delegates Obama got 12)
• Hillary won 20 state primaries + 1 state caucus
• Obama won 12 state caucuses and 17 state primaries.
• Let's summarize:
• Primary states: Hillary 20 Obama 12 (yes, Hillary "won" in the state count if you ignore caucuses!)
• Caucus states: Hillary 1 Obama 17