Comparing top 5 hyperscalers after Amazon reports AWS sales/profits to accelerate

在亞馬遜及AWS公布二季度財報及提供三季度指引及調高資本開支後，我們看到亞馬遜/AWS及各家雲端AI巨頭業務年增加速，營業利潤率季增及年增同步，獲利普遍高於市場預期，但大都因為積壓訂單及存儲記憶體漲價而調高資本開支及拉高下半年 capex to sales 比率及讓自由現金流轉負，除了Meta/臉書財報營收/獲利及指引明顯低於市場預期外，谷歌，亞馬遜，微軟都優於市場預期，尤其是雲端AI業務的獲利率明顯改善。但因為大語言模型及賣AI算力的產業整體營收增速仍明顯低於其資本開支增速，我們認為投資人應該還是會持續擔心未來（已經來不及發生在2H26）8大算力中心巨頭資本開支的回調而影響數據中心伺服器半導體產業到2030年動輒40-50% 的複合增長率預期（請參考之前深度報告：Party over for AI players or just a short term valuation reset even after AMD raised its AI TAM again?）。

2Q-3Q sales slightly better: Amazon reports 1.8% better than consensus 2Q26 sales of US$200.6bn, up 11% qoq and 20% yoy (accelerated growth from 1Q26’s 17% yoy growth) and guides 3Q26 sales of US$197-202bn, up -2% to 1% qoq and 9-12% yoy (2.2% falling short of Bloomberg estimates of US$203.9bn and yoy growth to decelerate);

Comparing top 5 hyperscalers: Based on 2Q26 sales and 3Q26 sales guidance/Bloomberg estimates, we see the yoy growth acceleration for Google，Oracle，Amazon（excluding 3Q26) but the deceleration for Meta. We attribute the discrepancy gap to lack of cloud business for Meta to rent out its invested computing power.