What Meta & Microsoft report about the sales and capex to result in an opposite movement

Executive summary

從數據中心雲端算力巨頭谷歌（Not yet an inflection point to see Google's capital density to reverse down?）上週，Meta，微軟今天公布的營收數字來看，除了Meta 花大錢投資本開支，明顯造成其折舊，研發，管理費用大增（大語言模型延遲高價挖角重整及大增資本開支造成多餘算力出租）結構性侵蝕營業利潤及自由現金流，短期也還沒看到Meta營收加速增長 (實在看不出其資本開支能繼續上修的理由），但另一方面，微軟及谷歌都看到雲端算力業務加速增長超預期，雖然自由現金流明顯受到影響，下半年將持續惡化，但獲利及財務結構仍相當穩定。這足以解釋為何Meta 跟微軟在公布財報數字及提供指引後，盤後股價走向大不同。

Capex ahead of sales growth for Meta

Quarterly sales slightly ahead but decelerating: Meta reports 2Q26 sales of US$60.8bn, up 8% qoq and 31% yoy (decelerated from 1Q26’s 33% yoy growth) and guides 3Q26 sales of US$61-64bn, up 0-5% qoq and 19-25% yoy (2.8% above Bloomberg estimates of US$60.8bn);

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