Don's Weekly, 17 August 2026: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Few minutes ago, while drafting this intro, have had a very strong de-ja-vu. Have written all of the following already… and then several times… and weeks, months, or even years ago. Ended up going to my bathroom, splashing some cold water into my face (again… because I did that already earlier in the morning), and then trying it a new…

But OK…

This weekend, Kyiv decided to play a numbers game and launched its biggest drone attack, ever, ever. Probably to deluge that, if nothing else, it can keep the Russian air defence crews on their toes. Moscow, naturally, claimed it swatted 822 of them out of the sky, though the debris raining down on the capital suggests a few slipped through. One particularly unlucky piece of shrapnel killed an 83-year-old man in his home.

…sadly, wars are no spreadsheets of intercepts…

Once again (where have we had that) the ‘true headline-grabber’ wasn’t a military installation, but a warehouse. The Ukrainians flattened Wildberries’ massive distribution hub in Podolsk, turning Russia’s largest online retailer into a very expensive bonfire. It was really ‘fire & smoke’ everywhere: a super-clever way to drag the war into the living rooms of the Russian public…

…and one remains forced to wonder if a similar effort directed at one, two or three of ballistic missile factories or another, two, or three refineries might have actually stopped the missiles rather than just delaying the parcel deliveries.

But hey: it wasn’t just Moscow that was hit. Down south, the Rostov region took a hammering with over 150 drones. They certainly overpowered the local Russian air defences, torched a defence industrial site, wrecked a railway station, and set a forest alight… killing five civilians along the way.

Finally, the Ukrainian Navy went for the throat in occupied Crimea and did something really useful: targeted and smashed launch sites for a Russian Bastion coastal defense system. Provided this was really hit, as claimed by various sources: that would be a solid blow to Moscow’s ability to fire its supersonic missiles.

Of course, Moscow was not content with being on the receiving end. Indeed, it retaliated with a vengeance: missiles and drones battered Kyiv overnight, sparking fires across the city and obliterating its landmark book and second-hand market.

…somehow doubt the irony of a cultural hub going up in smoke was lost on more than a few…

In grand total, across 13 Ukrainian regions, 128 Russian drones and dozens of ballistic missiles killed at least three civilians (in Sumy and Kryvyi Rih).

The one report that really caught my eye came from Kryvyi Rih. There, a Russian missile punched a hole in the ArcelorMittal steel plant. Reminded me of basic industrial physics: you can’t make high-quality steel if your plant is a crater.

But, never mind. Ukrainian officials claim the downing of 106 drones… Great News are always more important…

And on the ground, you ask?

Hand on heart: I’m happy to have Don around, because I wouldn’t find any news. AFAIK, the stalemate is deeply entrenched. Bar for few Russian infiltration squads probing Kharkiv and Sumy. Considering this is middle of the summer, I would say, it’s speaking clear language about much lauded Russian capabilities and intentions to ‘invade NATO… soon, too’…

But, Don does. And regularly so.

Therefore, over to Don.

Overview

On 4 August, 13 Russian regions lifted restrictions on gasoline sale, indicating that enough production was restored or distribution issues were resolved. After attacks on 11 of the 34 major refineries in August, many regions are reinstating restrictions. One refinery is out for six months and another stopped producing for an indeterminate amount of time.

Flamingo missiles hit the Progress Rocket and Space Center in Samara 930 km from Ukraine. This is important because the Flamingo missile attack was successful, and that was because the Ukrainians knew that none of the four Russian A-50 planes were in the air to detect them. It was also important because the space center is the only place where the Soyuz-2 rockets are built. And that is important because the rocket launches military satellites into space, including the Rossvet communication satellites that will provide capabilities similar to Starlink. Besides improving communication for ground troops, Rossvet will allow long-range drones to be piloted.

Ukraine’s long-range drones are not piloted because they do not have the satellite or other communications that support remote flying. If they did, the drones could hit moving targets, or planes that are parked and moved at different locations on the runways. Starlink satellites are deactivated when passing over Russia.

Two warehouses on the outer ring of Moscow’s air defenses were destroyed. Russia is increasing air defenses at some refineries.

Russia is increasingly piloting their long-range drones, which is a capability that Ukraine does not have because they have no communications over Russia.

Ukrainian units need approval from the General Staff to publish videos of military operations. That rule always existed but will supposedly now be enforced. Since it might deny details that Russia didn’t know, that makes sense. Ukraine will also stop publishing reports on the number of missiles Russia launched. That is because Ukraine cannot intercept missiles anymore and it is bad for morale. It still publishes drone data, and civilians will be able to track missiles, and Ukraine has only rebuilt 10% of the 700 megawatt shortage in power production since last winter.

The army continues to make positive changes but the list of things that need changing is long. Very long.

Russia is slowly advancing at Kupiansk and Sloviansk and putting heavy pressure on Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia. Ukraine is slowly advancing at Komar and putting heavy pressure on the Russians north of Lyman.

Kupiansk

Russian infiltration continues. Russians (re-)entering Kupiansk are mostly eliminated before they can accumulate in large numbers but more of them are making their way into the ruined town. Russian infiltration from Pishchane is also continuing and they are accumulating along the way and taking control of the treelines.

A Russian self-propelled gun is destroyed.

Sloviansk

Ukraine has difficulties supplying Mykolaivka and units to the east of the town because of the rivers and canals in the area. Russia already destroyed two highway bridges, but there are other bridges over smaller roads. There are a limited number of places to cross the waterways which makes it easier for Russian drones to find the targets and attack them.

Unless something changes, Russia will eventually take Mykolaivka. Their leading infiltrators already made their way into the city over a month ago. If that happens, the same waterways that make it difficult to supply Ukrainian units will make it hard for Russia to advance. Any barriers, whether they are rivers or engineering obstacles, slow movement and make it easier for targets to be destroyed by firepower, primarily drones. Sloviansk has major rivers and canals to the north and east.

After the collapse of this sector and the loss of Siversk, two brigade commanders were fired in December and the commander of the 11th Corps was replaced in February. Now, after only six months on the job, the new 11th Corps commander was fired because his management approach “did not correspond to the modern realities of decision-making.”

He is being replaced by Colonel Emil Ishkulov. Ishkulov was the commander of the 80th Air Assault Brigade in August 2024 and objected to Syrsky’s plan, or lack of it, to invade Kursk. He was fired by Syrsky and eventually became the deputy commander of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corp of Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces. Having learned operations at the corps level, his appointment to corps command was seen as an opportunity for Drapatyi to place Ishkulov into a major operational command. This is an important and unstable sector so a strong commander is necessary.

Prior to taking command of the 11th Corps, the 81st Airmobile brigade and what’s left of the 54th brigade (mostly drone units) were transferred to the operational control of the 3rd Corps, which is conducting a counterattack north of Lyman. Until the area north of Lyman is cleared - and that could take a long time - the supply routes into Lyman are dependent on the security of Sloviansk.

For those keeping track at home: The 81st Brigade is part of 7th Corp but is ‘temporarily’ (for over a year) assigned to 11th Corps… and is now under operational control of 3rd Corps.

It’s that simple.

Russian infiltrators are entering Mykolaivka from the north and east and being cleared out. Defensive positions between Mykolaivka and Sloviansk have been created in the last few months. The details of the positions weren’t released but there are probably plenty of obstacles to make it easier to detect and eliminate infiltrators.

Ukraine is fighting off Russian efforts to take Rai-Oleksandrivka, but the pressure increases by the week. Russia crossed the canal at Markovka and infiltrators crossed at Pryvillia, as well.

A 53-year-old Kramatorsk resident was arrested for providing locations of Ukrainian rocket-launchers, vehicles and movements to the Russians.

…it never stops amazing how many people never learn anything at all…

(…to be continued…)