August 24, 2026 Monday Midday Tropics

This is forecast post number 1014 — Day 236 of 2026.

Day 85 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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The long-awaited emergence of the strong tropical wave (soon to be Invest 96L) into the Atlantic Ocean, which is plenty warm for storm or hurricane development. However, as we have observed over the past several weeks, tropical waves look healthy and ambitious/eager to “catch fire” but then “blow a tire” or poof out after encounter very dry (Saharan) air layers, dust, and vertical wind shear.

So far so good for this rather large circulation. In any other non-El Niño summer, we’d probably be seeing a hurricane in the next few days. But, this does not look likely as the tropical wave will probably struggle until it escapes the Main Development Region in 5-6 days.

• Major tropical wave emerged off Africa — and all systems go for a tropical depression (60%) over the very warm waters of the Main Development Region, but intensification thereafter is probably limited.

• A sustained area of convection in the central subtropical Atlantic still has medium potential (50%) and is being watched by NHC — could steal the name Dolly, but it’s poorly organized.

• Typhoon Saudel (17W) in the Western Pacific remains at major intensity (100-knots) but dry air has eroded the convective structure with a ragged eye.

• In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Iselle (09E) may become a hurricane later on Monday but stay well away from land during it’s brief run.

Sea Surface Temperatures across the Atlantic Basin (28°C — very warm = red)

Two areas being watched for tropical development on Monday

You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud —> LINK

Invest 95L in the central Atlantic will continue northward, and may become Dolly briefly. The next system will be given Invest 96L soon, and we’re up to 60% for 7-days along a WNW trajectory.