This is forecast post number 1013 — Day 235 of 2026.
Day 84 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)
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Invest 95L — well east of the mainland U.S. — 50% chance of development
Major tropical wave now coming off Africa — and all systems go for a tropical depression into mid-week over the very warm waters of the Main Development Region.
A growing area of convection in the central subtropical Atlantic now has medium potential (50%) and is being watched by NHC — could steal the name Dolly.
Typhoon Saudel (17W) in the Western Pacific remains at 110-knots with a nice eye and convective structure. It will turn abruptly west and then southwest into China late in the week.
In the Eastern Pacific, tropical Storm Iselle (09E) will become a hurricane but stay well away from land during it’s 5-day run.
Huge tropical wave now coming off the coast of Africa, and we’ll be watching for the next 10-days.
You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud —> LINK
Invest 95L in the central Atlantic will continue northward, and may become Dolly briefly.
Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-18z …
More recurving members with 18z — stronger goes north faster — and weaker goes west.
This tropical wave is tracked across the MDR at TD or low-TS intensity, but then has a better chance to intensify into a hurricane in 10-days assuming it heads quite far west.
Still a few members pop up a TS/Hurricane in the Gulf … signal is still there.
Same story as 00z, the main difference between AIFS and the full-physics EPS: recurve much sooner along 60°W
The machine learning trained system (AIFS) has a weaker system, and that is allowed to drift further westward. But on the other hand, it may be removing a too-soon-to-recurve bias in the full physics system.
Still quite a collection of very intense members off the Southeast U.S. coast into Day 10. Until the AIFS-ENS and Google Deep Mind abandon this scenario, we must remain vigilant with this tropical wave, and any following into mid-September
All systems go for a weak to moderate tropical storm!
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days
This cycle of AIFS-Single has a stronger tropical storm through the MDR from the tropical wave (eventually 96L) but it sputters on a westerly course to the NE Caribbean. Note, the full-physics systems are recurving right away to the north out of the central MDR.
Tropical Storm Iselle generating very intense convection tonight!
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
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