August 21, 2026 Friday Tropical Atlantic Update

This is forecast post number 1010 — Day 233 of 2026.

Day 82 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Going to focus on some shorter updates for the Atlantic that can be delivered more frequently for Subscribers after the 11 AM ET NHC updates.

• Atlantic basin comes back to life early next week with models showing a tropical storm in the Main Development Region in 6-days BUT the development signal has decreased compared to Thursday significantly presumably due to Saharan Air Layer and Dust

• A non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of Portugal (yes, not a typo) may transition into a named tropical storm (Dolly — 20% from NHC)

• Another small area of convection in the central subtropical Atlantic also has low potential (20%)

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Nothing cooking in the main Atlantic basin for the next 5-days until a tropical wave exits Africa AND we might have our best chance yet (or maybe of all of 2026) at a TS/Hurricane into end of August into early September, but El Niño may have other ideas.