August 21, 2026 Friday Evening Tropics

This is forecast post number 1011 — Day 233 of 2026.

Day 82 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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• Atlantic basin comes back to life early next week with models showing a tropical storm in the Main Development Region in 6-days with development signal remaining steady since the 12z cycle. Still 40% to 50% range in the MDR but whatever survives may find much more favorable environment in the Western Atlantic.

• A non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of Portugal (yes, not a typo) may transition into a named tropical storm (Dolly — 20% from NHC) but the “look” on satellite still is more mid-latitude occlusion.

• Another small area of convection in the central subtropical Atlantic also has low potential (20%) but is not impressive

• Typhoon Saudel (17W) in the Western Pacific appears to be rapidly intensifying and should become Super by Sunday.

• Hurricane Lala still going out in the open Central Pacific. Tropical Storm Moke following but remains poorly organized into Saturday. The threat to the Hawaiian Islands look low and indirect.

You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud —> LINK

In 4 to 5 days, a tropical wave exits Africa AND we will have our best chance yet (or maybe of all of 2026) at a TS/Hurricane into end of August + early September.

AIFS-ENS 18z picks up a tropical wave in the MDR at Days 4/5 with moderate (40%) signal for development into a TS/Hurricane once it gains latitude still 8-9 days down the road.

The MDR is hostile due to dry air (Saharan Air Layer + dust) but the water is warm so the convection and circulation may survive until reaching warm western Atlantic waters.

Full Physics EPS Ensemble system remains excited about this tropical wave early next week with many (> 50%) with major hurricane intensity

Typical “Cape Verde” major hurricane — regardless of El Niño —> would be 12+ days before any U.S. impacts, but these usually/hopefully go out to sea.

NEW: Google Deep Mind 15-day Ensemble Tracks | 18z

34/51 members have at least one tropical storm / hurricane = 68% overall, with some outlier tracks toward/into the United States mainland.

The tropical wave is robust with a strong circulation and plenty of moisture, but there is dry air (Saharan Air Layer) to the north, and that’s wrecked all previous waves regardless of model excitement. So we should keep this “false alarm” signal in mind.

The little low-pressure system west of Portugal is putting on a show, but the structure looks very much like a midlatitude warm seclusion cyclone. I’m not sure it will have time to transition to a fully tropical system that feeds off the ocean surface, but instead degenerate/weaken while moving into Portugal.

We are still observing the current batch of tropical waves getting wiped out by a Saharan Air Layer — you can see the front of the warm/dusty air wipe out the MDR into early next week. But, then a tropical depression or storm forms (40%-50% chance) forms from a robust tropical wave.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

AIFS-Single 18z is semi-interested in the tropical wave into Day 5 (Aug 26) coming off Africa. That is perhaps a TD/TS in the model, and no longer a hurricane signal as Thursday.

Very warm off Africa with 28.5°C to 30°C. The rest of the basin is also very warm including 30°C in the Gulf. The Caribbean is a bit cooler than normal but still plenty sufficient for any intensity hurricane. However, highly unlikely we’ll see one anytime soon in the “shear shredding” Caribbean.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) 12z — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth and dry air combined with subsidence at low levels.

The SAL is not giving up, and may brutally suppress the tropical wave we’ve been watching with a close eye into next week.

3 major tropical waves — still 3-4 days until that one over Niger and Mali arrives off the coast of Senegal.

The entire Pacific basin is lit up with activity — typhoons and hurricanes next 2-weeks

Tropical Storm Moke (45 mph winds) —> WNW remaining south of Hawaiian Islands

Moke is not expected to intensify very much — but we’ll see!

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Factory. 2-4 more TS/Hurricanes in coming 10-14 days

Intensity will quickly increase to Major Typhoon status on Saturday

The track has changed — and will take a left turn (?) around Taiwan into China with it’s escape hatch blocked by a ridge to the north over Korea/Japan.

JTWC takes to 130-knots (Super Typhoon) in next 48-hours

Deep Mind has the track bend to the west and then southwest! Bizarre

HAFS-A 18z has a Super Typhoon motoring across the Western Pacific at 25°N latitude — plenty of warm water and fuel: Next 5-days: