Since Saturday, the latest guidance has delivered a healthy upward revision to snowfall totals since my previous update, where accumulations of around 10 cm looked the most likely outcome. Current expectations have increased to around 20 to 25 cm above 1,600 metres, with the highest terrain above 1,800 metres now likely to receive closer to 30 cm. It’s a welcome shift, and one that’s been reinforced by observations overnight.
One of the more interesting developments has been the atmosphere outperforming the guidance. Snow has developed earlier and at lower elevations than forecast, despite the leading models maintaining freezing levels well above the alpine peaks through Wednesday night. Observations instead showed temperatures and snow levels running considerably colder across the Australian Alps, highlighting just how difficult these transitional events can be to model. The broader forecast remains on track, with the cold front expected to deepen through today before the heaviest snowfall arrives from around midnight into Friday morning. Gusty west to northwesterly winds will accompany the system before easing on Friday, followed by a return to favourable snowmaking conditions during nighttime hours, into next week.
Make hay while the sun is shining as this is likely to be the strongest polar push until the next substantial fall circa 17/18th July with potentially a short sharp dusting or so around the 12/13th.
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