Numbers behind Matthias Jaissle's Al-Ahli & what can Newcastle expect

Written on 01/08/2026

As much as it was a shock to find out that Eddie Howe has effectively handed in his resignation just after the start of pre-season (or maybe it was handed in before and the club took time to find their replacement before announcing it), the setbacks Newcastle United have suffered in the transfer market (both in terms of keeping key players and losing out on key targets) might have meant that the Englishman did not have it in him to rebuild a team from scratch after losing a chunk of his core over the last 12 months: Alexander Isak to Liverpool, Sandro Tonali to Tottenham Hotspur and Bruno Guimarães to Arsenal (and let’s not even get into the plethora of missed transfers).

It is time to look ahead for the Magpies, with the Al-Ahli and former RB Salzburg manager Matthias Jaissle now set to take over the role. The German, who played for seven years at Hoffenheim (2007-2014), began his coaching career as an assistant to Alexander Zorniger at Brøndby in 2017. A year later, he joined RB Salzburg’s U18 team as a coach.

In 2021, he became the manager of FC Liefering (the feeder club to RB Salzburg). From the start of the 2021/22 season until the end of the 2022/23 season, he was the manager of Salzburg, succeeding Jesse Marsch. They won the league title in both campaigns.

By then, it was clear which system the 38-year-old had graduated through and what his coaching philosophy would be based on: the Red Bull style of a combination of zonal and man-to-man pressing, a narrow shape and fast movement of the ball from back to front.

From the start of the 2023/24 season, Jaissle took over an Al-Ahli side that had just been promoted from the second division. It came following their first-ever relegation from the top flight in the 2021/22 season, which was the result of a combination of things going wrong both inside and outside the dressing room.

Under Jaissle, Al-Ahli have finished third, fifth and third in their three full Saudi Pro League seasons, with their 2025/26 points tally increasing by 14 points from the 67 they recorded in the 2024/25 campaign. They also won the AFC Champions League for the first time in the 2024/25 season before successfully defending the title a year later.

Below, we look at the numbers behind the Saudi side under their German manager to see what patterns emerge, while also looking at their relative numbers from the 2025/26 season to forecast what Newcastle fans can expect from a Jaissle-coached team.

We start by looking at the expected goal trend for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons (league games).

At the start of the 2024/25 season, Al-Ahli lost four of their first nine league games before going on a five-game winning streak. The close gap between xG created and xG conceded reflects their slow start to the campaign. From November onwards, however, the xG creation line stayed above the concession line. The only time the two came close again was after April, when they lost two of their final four league games to finish fifth.

The 2025/26 season tells a different story. The xG creation line consistently stayed well clear of the concession line, reflecting an excellent campaign overall and a 14-point improvement on the previous season.

Overall, barring a slow start to the 2024/25 season, the xG trend depicts a side that has remained consistent over the past season and a half under Matthias Jaissle.

The most-used formations in each season are also noted in the visual. The 4-2-3-1 takes clear precedence, with inverted wingers (Riyad Mahrez [left-footed] on the right and Galeno [right-footed] on the left) supporting Ivan Toney up front (talking about the 25/26 season in terms of personnel). A pictorial depiction of that is shown below.

At times, the same shape can be moulded into a 4-4-1-1 when the wingers are asked to do a more disciplined job defensively. This then leaves the number 10 operating almost as a second striker, becoming the sole outlet in transition before the wingers join the attack.

All of the above discussed is in keeping with the narrow structure typically deployed by Red Bull coaches, combining high-intensity pressing out of possession with quick counter-attacks.

Next up, we have tables looking at Al-Ahli’s numbers across the 2024/25 and 2025/26 league campaigns combined and how they ranked among the ever-present teams in the Saudi Pro League over that period. The numbers are split into separate offensive and defensive tables.

These offensive numbers are symbolic of a team that finishes between third and fifth in the league. Over the two-season period, they ranked third for goals scored, xG created and big chances created, while being fourth for shots attempted and touches in the opposition box. The only metric in which they ranked first was the average quality of chances created (denoted by xG per shot).

For a team that plays a high-pressing system with a high defensive line (we will discuss the latter in the next section), the defensive numbers have also been impressive over the two-season period. They ranked first for goals conceded, average quality of chances conceded and big chances allowed. They were second for xG conceded and third for opposition touches in the box and final-third entries allowed. Their average of around 10 shots conceded per game meant they still allowed a fair number of attempts (for a top-five side), although not many were of high quality.

Considering that Al-Ahli’s squad value was fourth in the league at the start of the 2024/25 campaign and second at the start of 2025/26, these numbers and league finishes (fifth and third respectively, with a significant points improvement in the latter) suggest that the underlying numbers and relative rankings were in line with the quality of the squad.

This indicates that Jaissle can get his team performing at a level consistent with its squad value. They did not overperform, but equally they did not underperform, the latter being key when judging a manager’s work with a team over a prolonged period.

Next up, we have the AFC Champions League winner’s offensive, defensive, pressing style and possession metrics from the 2025/26 season, comparing them with what Newcastle produced in the Premier League during the same campaign.

This should give us an understanding of how different an Eddie Howe team can be from a Matthias Jaissle team, even though they play in different leagues. We will, of course, add the necessary caveats before jumping to any conclusions. The aim is to understand what changes in style Newcastle fans can expect during the 2026/27 season.

The rest of this analysis is for paid subscribers. Get unlimited access to in-depth, data-driven player and team analyses, scout reports, and tactical breakdowns across the Premier League and European football for just £3.50/month, or save with an annual subscription at £3.16/month. Start with a seven-day free trial.