Governments from the Gulf (Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN, UAE’s G42/MGX) to Europe, India, Japan, and beyond are investing heavily in “AI factories.” Recent examples include Saudi partnerships with Nvidia for hundreds of thousands of GPUs and multi-GW-scale ambitions, alongside hyperscaler sovereign cloud deals.
The Anthropic restrictions amplify this urgency. Nations see the vulnerability of relying on foreign models that can be switched off or restricted by US policy. The result: accelerated spending on hardware, power, cooling, networking, and enabling infrastructure — often blending sovereign capital with Western expertise (”sovereignty as a service”).
Analysts project sovereign projects could represent 15%+ of global AI infrastructure spend by 2030, with cumulative trillions in play. Recent earnings reinforce this: Nvidia highlighted >80% YoY sovereign revenue growth, while equipment makers raised guidance on AI-driven fab and cluster expansions.
The biggest structural winners aren’t most local AI startups or model developers — they’re the established leaders supplying the foundational layers that every sovereign buildout needs.
Every new sovereign fab or advanced AI cluster requires these machines:
ASML: Near-monopoly on EUV/High-NA lithography for cutting-edge nodes (3nm and below). Raised 2026 guidance on AI acceleration.
The options data on ASML suggests institutional investors remain broadly bullish on the long-term AI and semiconductor buildout despite some near-term hedging.
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