You had a good week but ended up giving back half of your gains on Friday. While you had a winning trade, you closed it before it could pay off fully. You’re not lacking in trading setups; rather, you struggle with the discipline to hold onto the good ones and to cut the bad ones early.
In June, I put AUGO on the board when it was near 47 to 53, just as the market looked ugly and nobody wanted to own it. By Friday, it closed at 86.69. You can find the entry details and the date on the Desk. Go take a look.Sunday.
Last week we closed seven trades. Three won. Four lost.
The account finished up 3.81R.
I want to sit on that for a second, because it’s the whole job in one line and almost nobody trades like they believe it.
Three winners, Four losers.
Up 3.81R on the week.
You do not need to be right more than half the time. You need your winners bigger than your losers, and the discipline to actually let them get there.
Seven trades, three markets. The two that carried the week were BTC and ETH, both long, both let run to target instead of grabbed early. The four reds were small, taken at the stop I wrote down before the trade existed, no arguing with them, no widening.
Net of all of it: +3.81R.
That is the number that matters, and it’s a number a losing-week trader can post. Win rate was 43% and it was still a good week. If that sounds backwards, the next two sections are for you.
Yes. Because I never let a red get bigger than one unit, and I let the greens run past it.
Here is the math with round numbers so it’s obvious. Say every loss costs you 1R. Four losses, that’s minus 4R. Now say your three winners came in at, roughly, the sizes mine did last week. Add them up and you clear the four losses with change to spare. Result: minus 4, plus the winners, still up 3.81R on the week.
The reader who blows up doesn’t do it on entries. They do it by cutting the winner at plus 0.8R because they’re scared to give it back, then letting the loser run to minus 3R because they’re sure it’ll come good. Small wins, big losses. That’s the account killer, and it has nothing to do with being right.
I call the fix renting the trade versus owning it. A renter gets in and bails at the first wobble, over and over, and pays a fee every time. An owner takes the position to the level they wrote down, or to the stop, and nothing in between moves them. Last week I owned $BTC and $ETH to target and rented nothing.
The fixed read, same four gauges every week so you can watch them change.
Risk: on. Crypto led, high-beta names extended, the Kiwi dollar broke higher. That’s a risk-on tape, not a defensive one.
Where the crowd is: still piled into AI and semis. That’s fine until it isn’t, and it’s not where I’m hunting.
The overlooked corner: metals and miners. Nobody wanted gold-related names in June. Look at one of them now (AUGO, below). The money is usually in the aisle everyone else walked past.
3-Gate market verdict: trend gate open, momentum gate open, risk gate says size normal, not heroic. Good conditions, not a green light to get reckless.
None of that is a forecast. It’s a description of the board as it sits, so you know what kind of week you’re sizing into.
This section is for the longer-term investors reading, and there are more of you every week.
Back in June, AUGO was ugly. It had bled from the mid-70s down toward the low 50s and then kept going. I marked three entries on it: a first entry as it came back to the 0.382, a second at the 0.5, and the one I actually leaned on, the blood-in-the-street entry down at the 0.618 to 0.786 zone, roughly 47 to 53, where the chart looks broken and the headlines agree with the chart.
That is the entry nobody wants, which is exactly why it pays.
Friday it closed at 86.69. From the blood-in-the-street zone that’s the thick end of a 60% move, and it isn’t done: my Target 1 sits up at the 106.67 extension. Add the setup fuel, a 35M float with 30% of it short, and you have a name that squeezes when it’s forced to.
I’m not telling you to buy it here, up 60% from where I flagged it. The point is the method. The best entries feel terrible. If you wait for the chart to look good and the news to agree, you’re buying what already worked, in the rearview mirror, from the people who bought it in the blood.
Different account, different timeframe, same discipline.
On the Desk’s 1-hour Vol Entries feed last week, NZD/USD printed a Vol Buy into the shelf around 0.5850 while the daily was pressing on the 0.5877 resistance it had been stuck under. The trigger fired, the pair broke the shelf, and it ran up toward 0.5988 without giving the entry back.
One is a two-month hold on a miner. One is an intraday trigger on a currency. They’re the same trade underneath: a level written down in advance, an entry taken when the condition prints, and no renting in between.
You don’t hold it by watching it. You hold it by having written the exit down before you were in, so there’s no live decision left to fumble.
AUGO didn’t need me from June to Friday. It needed me once, at the entry, and once more if it hit the stop. Everything in between was noise I’d already decided to ignore. The reason people can’t hold is they never fixed the exit, so every candle is a fresh negotiation and eventually they lose one.
Write the level. Set the alert. Close the tab.
Free readers: the journal is 30% off with code RBT30 at rbtrading.site
Earlier this year, I closed a trade at a profit of 1.2R because I couldn’t handle the fluctuations. It ended up gaining another four R while I felt clever for “banking it.” I didn’t lose money, but I lost confidence in my ability to hold a position, and regaining that belief took longer than recovering the lost profits.
The setups above are the free half. The live numbers are the product.
Two fresh short-squeeze setups went on the board this week, and one existing target just moved. The exact entries, stops and targets, plus the gate status on every open position, are below, live on the Desk.
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