#202618 - priceactiontds - weekly update

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

The world economy is fucked. No matter how you look at it, this Oil shock is real and here to stay. Even if they end it tomorrow, the amount of production that is missing will take weeks to months to get shipped again. Israel won’t back off either. They want more land and they will take it, whatever it takes.

2026-03-22, me

Markets can only go up. Yes, we all know by now. I am contend with not being long, are you? Nothing changed since the Iran war started. AI stocks fundamentals have not changed for the better and only those couple of stocks are driving this bubble. It could continue or it could suddenly reverse, your guess is as good as mine. I will not write a single line in favor of the bulls, so you can leave now if you are looking for it. The upside potential is statistically as unlikely as you joining the Lakers tomorrow. Nothing good happens from here on. The bubble is fueled by momentum only and if it goes, it will be like the shoreline before the Tsunami. You can believe that all of a sudden, those AI investments lead to parabolic revenue growth but for now that is not the case. Yes, Nvidia is making good money but buying a 43 p/e ratio says it’s priced in. Sure it can go higher but you are paying a premium for your believe. Can work, statistically it does not, ever.

That leaves us with the biggest oil supply shock in history which is ongoing and we have one side who thinks everything will be fine and the other who knows some facts, like Lufthansa cancelling 20.000 flights until October because there is a jet fuel shortage and prices are going vertical. If you still believe in the peace talks, I want you to activate the 6 brain cells you have left and try to remember when they started and maybe re-evaluate how this is going.

Easy as shit this week. No technicals necessary this week because during the peak bubble mania, everything get’s thrown out of the window. Momentum trumps everything and the world has never seen such a mind boggling and moronic rally is this one. Ever.

This leaves us with the only real chart that matters to me. Oil is printing a higher low again and we are in a clear triangle since March. I only expect this to break out massively to the upside but that is also very unlikely as of now. Buying 90 printed money since March and I will continue to do so until the straight of Hormuz is busier than your Mum on a Saturday evening again.

dax futures: Neutral. Very tough to be a bear here since the market is finding no acceptance around 24000 and bulls buy it hard. Only a daily close below 23700 would change my mind on this. That does not mean I would happily buy here at 24358. It’s right at the daily 20ema and close enough to the bull trend line from the bull wedge. Oil above 100 would make bears heavily favored again but until then I am not trading it.

nasdaq e-mini futures: Neutral. I can not express how bearish I am but it does not make sense to short into this right now.

ftse: Bulls bought where was expected and I think we continue sideways 10160 - 10500 until Oil melts again. Daily close below 10k could the trigger for more downside but there is a bull trend line around that price and I doubt we will just melt through it.

wti crude oil futures: Max bullishness. Could dip again below 90 but I’d take the L and wait for buyers again. No peace agreement, no oil flowing, clock is ticking.

gold: Neutral. Could go down to 4300ish or up to 4800ish. Not touching it.

bitcoin: Neutral. It was the first weekly close above the 20ema but I still expect another leg down. Bears have to keep it below 87k or this could go to 93k and then even 100k again. Daily close below 78k would make me turn bear on this.

comment: Neutral. Very tough to be a bear here since the market is finding no acceptance around 24000 and bulls buy it hard. Only a daily close below 23700 would change my mind on this. That does not mean I would happily buy here at 24358. It’s right at the daily 20ema and close enough to the bull trend line from the bull wedge. Oil above 100 would make bears heavily favored again but until then I am not trading it.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels for next week: 23800 - 25200

bull case: Bulls will probably buy in this area above 24000 in hope or another leg up. Their case is a bit better if Oil stays below 100$. Above 100$ Oil this has no business being up here.

Invalidation is below 23900

bear case: Last week I wrote that bears have to hope to stay below 24800 and we spiked above 25000 and then sold-off. Oil has to go higher again for more downside in equity markets. A daily close below 23800 would surprise me, if Oil is not above 100/105. Other than that, bears have all the arguments on their side for more downside but until it’s happening, you can not short into hope. The lower high 25250 is certainly high enough that we are free to go down again.

Invalidation is above 25300

short term: Neutral. Chart-wise bulls are a bit favored, unless Oil melts. Until then shorts only make sense closer to 25000.

medium-long term - update 2026-05-10: My base case is the world is completely fucked with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next weeks/months and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.

comment: Neutral. I can not express how bearish I am but it does not make sense to short into this right now.

current market cycle: biggest bubble in history - you will tell your kids about the crash that will follow this

key levels for next week: 27000 - 30200

bull case: Overdone, overbought, peak insanity. High enough that it could print 30000.

Invalidation is below 27800

bear case: Here is my outrageous take for the weekend: The US, Israel and whoever the fuck will start the attacks again. Full on bombing. Oil vertical and this pulling back to 27000 before it could try another time for 30000. Bears have no arguments on their side right now, looking at this chart. It’s peak fomo into the biggest bubble ever. If you make money on the long side here, I am happy for you. If you lose money going long close to the ath here, you are a dumb cunt and deserve to lose it all.

Invalidation is above 31000 I guess

short term: Sitting on hands and waiting for the boom. Biggest. Bubble. In. History.

medium-long term - Update from 2026-05-10: Target 20000 for 2026 remains.

Did absolutely nothing besides more swing oil longs but let’s print the swing losses I booked.

That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.

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