#202619 - priceactiontds - weekly update

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

The world economy is fucked. No matter how you look at it, this Oil shock is real and here to stay. Even if they end it tomorrow, the amount of production that is missing will take weeks to months to get shipped again. Israel won’t back off either. They want more land and they will take it, whatever it takes.

2026-03-22, me

Not much this week compared to the week before. We are heading for the oil supply shock abyss to materialize and oh yes, it will. Some credit measures are at peak or GFC highs, same as margin debt. By now you should get the idea if you read my stack regularly.

Opex is behind us and we saw the first weekly red bar on the nq after 6 consecutive weekly gains for a total of 27%. You will not live through many more of those, if any. As of now your guess is as good as mine where we go next. A 50% pullback for any directional move is one of the most common patterns in any market and that would bring the nq emini down to 26500. If you are a bull, where is your current stop, daily 20ema? That’s 1000 points lower. Do you want to risk 1000 in hopes of the 30000 print? That’s a meh trade at best. We are in a tight channel and bulls can argue it won’t break much on the first try, so their stop could be 28700. Hard to argue against that because bears have showed zero ability to make anything stick for 7 weeks. I still would not buy here just because it’s the biggest asset bubble in history and buying above multiple multi-year patterns is as moronic as it gets. I’m content with waiting for a bigger macro change and markets reflecting it. There are more than enough risks which are not priced in at all.

Yes the bubble can continue and I am still happy for anyone who makes money with longs. I won’t. My bearish targets for this year remain. I am still confident about them because we are running full speed into the abyss with these evaluation and once the profit taking begins, it will be a panic run for the exits.

If you are wondering, I don’t think any valuation for any company out there with p/e above 40 makes any sense what so ever. I will never change my mind about it.

dax futures: Neutral. Still tough to be a bear, much more so close to 24000. This could easily become a higher low and go for 24500 or 25000 again. Selling here at 24000 where the market bounced the past month is stupid. It could also continue in this down channel for 1 1/2 more legs down and re-test 23000. I don’t know, I won’t pretend I do. Oil supply shock is still not felt strongly enough for me to expect this to melt lower. Oil above 110 would change that.

nasdaq e-mini futures: Neutral. Expecting much more of the bears is low probability. The channel is still valid and it’s a textbook two-legged pullback for now. I would still not buy it. Bears need to show much much more to convince me.

ftse: Somewhat bullish. Makes no sense to buy here at support. Bears would need a big surprise to move this below 10000 again. Can’t see it happening yet.

wti crude oil futures: Neutral. Clear triangle now and unless something big changes, bulls won’t fight the lower highs and hold in hopes for 110 or more. 105 is the highest I think this will go, unless… News. I would not short this.

gold: Neutral. Would buy it if I had to trade it but I won’t. Previous support is the better argument until we have a daily close below 4500. Could go up to 4700 again.

bitcoin: Neutral because bears not doing enough. Bull wedge is broken but it could re-test 81000 again before finally turning down. I am not convinced bears are again in control of this. Shorts with stop 85k still make sense though.

comment: Neutral. Still tough to be a bear, much more so close to 24000. This could easily become a higher low and go for 24500 or 25000 again. Selling here at 24000 where the market bounced the past month is stupid. It could also continue in this down channel for 1 1/2 more legs down and re-test 23000. I don’t know, I won’t pretend I do. Oil supply shock is still not felt strongly enough for me to expect this to melt lower. Oil above 110 would change that.

current market cycle: trading range / bigger triangle between 22000 - 25847

key levels for next week: 23680 - 25000

bull case: Bulls will probably buy in this area above 24000 in hope or another leg up. Their case is a bit better if Oil stays below 100$. Above 100$ Oil this has no business being up here. This is what I wrote last week and still valid. Bulls have the better argument to stay above 24000 for now.

Invalidation is below 23600 (daily close)

bear case: Sideways market and bears need to make a lower low below 23700 for it to mean something. This would open up the path down to 23000 or lower.

Invalidation is above 25300

short term: Neutral. Nothing new to write about this. Chart-wise bulls are a bit favored but Oil already melted more. I don’t think any market has any reason to be this high but here we are. I would not short here at prior support.

medium-long term - update 2026-05-10: My base case is the world is completely fucked with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next weeks/months and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.

comment: Neutral. Expecting much more of the bears is low probability. The channel is still valid and it’s a textbook two-legged pullback for now. I would still not buy it. Bears need to show much much more to convince me.

current market cycle: biggest bubble in history - you will tell your kids about the crash that will follow this

key levels for next week: 27000 - 30200

bull case: Overdone, overbought, peak insanity. High enough that it could print 30000. I have no idea if opex had that big of an effect on markets and I don’t know where we go from here. Probabilities are good for the bulls that the channel will hold the first touch and we continue sideways to up but this is so beyond overdone and overbought, nothing would make me long this.

Invalidation is below 27800

bear case: Here is my outrageous take for another week - timing is off but I still think it will materialize: The US, Israel and whoever the fuck will start the attacks again. Bears still have no argument on their side but this move is so insane that I don’t think it’s that far fetched that we could easily drop to 28000 before bulls might try another bounce.

Invalidation is above 31000 I guess

short term: Sitting on hands and waiting for the boom. Biggest. Bubble. In. History.

medium-long term - Update from 2026-05-10: Target 20000 for 2026 remains.

Still have 3 open oil longs from below 90.

That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.

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