#202617 - priceactiontds - weekly update

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

The world economy is fucked. No matter how you look at it, this Oil shock is real and here to stay. Even if they end it tomorrow, the amount of production that is missing will take weeks to months to get shipped again. Israel won’t back off either. They want more land and they will take it, whatever it takes.

2026-03-22, me

It doesn’t matter which one of the above you fancy, we are in the biggest asset bubble in history. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile is around 400bn, PTJ says buying here makes no sense and now you tell me, if the random twitter cunt who says “Buffett lost his edge” for the 69th time, is the one to follow. Those legends became one because they did not FOMO into these bubbles before and they are not doing so now. Yes you can make money buying here but literally every statistic is against you. There are few, if any, melt-ups as moronic as this one. Yes it can continue, yes I am underwater with shorts, no I don’t give a shit. Oil is above 100, physical Oil is still far above paper and when you fill up your gas tank, you think again about buying stocks here at all time highs. Nothing would make me buy into this. I expect this to crash down in epic fashion. It might not be next week but it will happen and cunts who bought the highs will ask themselves “what the fuck was I thinking”. Just like they did in 2000 and 2008.

Oil above 100 is all I care about right now. Markets will have to de-risk eventually and I will practice patience instead of giving in to the inner FOMO bitch telling me to long.

Obviously from a technical perspective we can not expect the US markets to just reverse without a big catalyst. Bulls are in full control and until we see big daily bear bars again, they are favored to continue the trend. What do the bears have? They know the world economy is fucked with Oil above 80$ but that does not help with trading the market right now. It can take a bit longer to really materialize. When will that be? No one knows. They also argue we are in a gigantic expanding triangle (or at least a bull wedge where we are at the top or even above the upper trend line) on the sp500 and nq and the breakout the bulls are tying here, will fail and markets will test back down. Whatever you prefer here, going up 15% in a straight line for 5 weeks without any decent pullback is statistically as good as guaranteed to fuck your account if you long it.

dax futures: Neutral. Again. I think we will continue inside the triangle between 23800 - 24800. Next consumer spending numbers will be atrocious because Gas prices are beginning to show. Inflation is skyrocketing again. Literally nothing is going good from a macro perspective and yet markets can ignore it longer. The automobile tariff news alone should bring this below 24000 on Monday but I have my doubts because funny enough, we don’t drop on bad shit from orange face but we sure as fuck rally on lies.

nasdaq e-mini futures: Neutral but only because shorting this further can lead to much more pain. This is as overbought and overdone as can be. And don’t forget moronic. A casual 2-3% drop would be a minor pullback and expected. At this point I think, once again, only an Iran ground invasion by the US could bring this down and even that is questionable at this point. I doubt markets have ignored risk this hard ever before.

ftse: Neutral/slightly bullish but I will not buy this. I do think we printed a higher low and might test up to 10550ish before it will see 10000 again. Tough spot tbh because it’s literally in the middle of the range.

wti crude oil futures: Neutral. Problem for the bulls is, they have not made money above 100 since March. Spike up, spike down and the downside could be big again. The amount of manipulation over the past 2 months was astonishing and I don’t think you can hold long here in hopes of “this time it’s different”. Yes it could be and yes it should because of us being in the biggest Oil supply shock in history but who can hold through another 10% down move?

gold: Neutral. Could go down to 4300ish or up to 4800ish. Not touching it.

bitcoin: Neutral. 5th try by the bulls to stay above 75000 and get above 80000 again. They are poking these levels enough now that they are more likely to break than a move to the downside again. Bulls want to close the gap up to around 83000, anything above it would surprise me but it would open up the possibility for the 50% retracement at 93000. I would not buy this.

comment: Neutral. Again. I think we will continue inside the triangle between 23800 - 24800. Next consumer spending numbers will be atrocious because Gas prices are beginning to show. Inflation is skyrocketing again. Literally nothing is going good from a macro perspective and yet markets can ignore it longer. The automobile tariff news alone should bring this below 24000 on Monday but I have my doubts because funny enough, we don’t drop on bad shit from orange face but we sure as fuck rally on lies.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels for next week: 23800 - 24800

bull case: Bulls printed a big outside up bar which was big enough to expect follow-through buying. Their next target is 24700ish and testing the minor bear trend line from the 25600 high though the April high.

Invalidation is below 23800

bear case: Bears have all the macro arguments and data on their side but no the chart. They need a daily close below 23800 for more downside. Best they can hope for next week is to stay below 24800 and maybe a big news bomb will help them.

Invalidation is above 25000

short term: Neutral. Possible, that they take a breather in US markets and rip the EU ones but it’s a weak argument at best. 25% new tariffs on EU cars is real bad on top of the oil price but hey, market’s keep saying “fuck yo puts”.

medium-long term - update 2026-04-04: The headlines will dictate the direction. My base case is the world is completely fucked with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next days/weeks and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.

comment: Neutral but only because shorting this further can lead to much more pain. This is as overbought and overdone as can be. And don’t forget moronic. A casual 2-3% drop would be a minor pullback and expected. At this point I think, once again, only an Iran ground invasion by the US could bring this down and even that is questionable at this point. I doubt markets have ignored risk this hard ever before.

current market cycle: trading range / expanding triangle / bull wedge / bull trend (all are true)

key levels for next week: 26000 - 28000

bull case: Overdone, overbought, peak insanity. Could go to 28500 I think.

Invalidation is below 26500

bear case: Macro arguments are all on the bear side yet bears are getting slaughtered. Need a daily close below 26500 for more downside. I do think we will top out soon though but shorting into this is pretty much suicide unless you have a big account and really wide stops. Markets are basically saying “we don’t care about high oil prices” which is beyond moronic but for now bulls are right because markets only go up.

Invalidation is above 28500

short term: Sitting on hands and waiting for the boom. Biggest. Bubble. In. History.

medium-long term - Update from 2026-04-25: Target 20000 remains, if the war continues. Lowest I can see it going, if we get a deep recession, is 18000 - 19000.

-59 on a dax long (funny eh)

+273 on a nq long

swing shorts obviously big underwater. if we do not dip tomorrow, have to think about covering and waiting

That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.

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