#202616 - priceactiontds - weekly update

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

The world economy is fucked. No matter how you look at it, this Oil shock is real and here to stay. Even if they end it tomorrow, the amount of production that is missing will take weeks to months to get shipped again. Israel won’t back off either. They want more land and they will take it, whatever it takes.

2026-03-22, me

Markets ignored the reality another week and we got more new all time highs. Mostly driven by semiconductor stocks but who cares. Let’s stick to facts. Markets only go up, while the world is experiencing the biggest oil supply destruction in history. Airfares going vertical, jet fuel being rationed in some places and things will only get worse from here. I am still 90% convinced that the dip in March was the start of this crisis and right now markets outdid themselves doing the insane thing and literally going up in a straight line. No one believes valuations are better than before the war started but markets are making more money going up than going down and until that changes, they are right by definition. This is the .dotcom bubble 2.0, where Tesla get’s bought above 300+ p/e or a shoe company switching to being an “ai compute infrastructure” company Nothing about this makes sense or is in any form sound investment shit but I guess ZIRP for 10+ years + G7 budget deficits like we are in a world war, do change things. Last week I did < 5 trades because I pretty much refuse to fall for the FOMO. My bias is clear. I have been writing about it for weeks.

The world economy is fucked with Oil above 80$.

I will die on that hill. It will take longer to materialize and markets can stay irrational longer than anyone thinks. Every inflation measure ist pretty much going vertical right now. Literally every print over the past 3 weeks.

I remain very sceptical, that the war parties can agree on a peace deal, given that the US and Israel seem to have become straight up villains. Yes, striking a school with a tomahawk (100+ kids dead) makes you a villain by definition.

Good read.

Oil continues to be my main focused chart I watch because it will dictate the direction for all other markets. Big money will have to reduce risk with Oil prices above 90/100. We are still in Lala-land where hope reigns but Oil refuses to stay below 90 and every manipulation (yes, exactly that) was stuffed immediately after. 3 times now. Can they pump out fake news about new “good talks” with “progress” and drop paper oil 10-20% again? Bet. In a couple of years we will probably find out how much the US government intervened in the Oil markets while they raged war with Iran. That does not help with trading this shit, I know.

Oil looks like it will hit 110+ again, before it hits 78 but buying this around 100 is not a good spot.

If I had to guess what will happen over the weekend is this, talks stall, Iran not getting enough and know they can do this longer than the world economy can hold up and we will see another week of nothing happening but Markets rallying on fake news / hopeful shit that’s going nowhere but shorts can not get anything going. That the US will escalate further is unlikely, same as a deal which every party agrees upon. But take this with a big fucking grain of salt. I’m guessing as good as anyone here. Fact: Buying here at all time highs is by far the most retarded shit you can do. By a mile. That does not mean you should short yet, unless you have a big account can don’t mind scaling in higher.

dax futures: Neutral. Turning bear with a daily close below 23900 or more US-Iran escalation. Most likely we continue sideways until news dictate the next impulse. European markets did not follow sp500/nasdaq, which makes me doubt very much that we will see new ath’s soon but if they really print a peace-deal, we could see another violent up move again. Only really bad headlines can move this down meaningfully again.

nasdaq e-mini futures: Neutral. This is not the start of a new bull trend. No, this is not going for 30000. This is a violent short squeeze into the biggest oil supply shock in history, which is still unresolved and ongoing. Yes it can go further, yes I have been wrong and yes, above 26000 the only sensible thing to do is either waiting for scaling into long dated shorts.

ftse: Neutral/slightly bearish. Tough tbh. Shorts only if you can hold through 11000 and scale in higher because the odds are there, that we see another try for 10700 or more. It’s possible that 10725 printed a lower high and we continue down but right now that’s less likely than another try from the bulls.

wti crude oil futures: Neutral. I don’t think buying near 100 is good. Longs need wide stops below 75 and that’s just too far. Headlines dictate this too much for comfort but I think ultimately this will go above 120 or more, if they do not reach an agreement in the next 14 days and even then it could happen because so much production is destroyed/offline.

gold: Neutral. I remain on “sell closer to 5000 and buy at or below 4400. Below 4600 odds favor another move down to 4400 or 4300.

bitcoin: Neutral. Bulls still have no close above the 50% retracement from the last bear leg but we are printing higher highs and higher lows. A daily close above 80k opens up prices up to 96k and a daily close below 73k turns the market more neutral again.

comment: Neutral. Turning bear with a daily close below 23900 or more US-Iran escalation. Most likely we continue sideways until news dictate the next impulse. European markets did not follow sp500/nasdaq, which makes me doubt very much that we will see new ath’s soon but if they really print a peace-deal, we could see another violent up move again. Only really bad headlines can move this down meaningfully again. One thing though is, short term bulls might continue to squeeze while medium-term an unresolved conflict will make the oil market go boom and I think we are days away from it. So either we see strategic reserves drained by a gigantic amount in the coming days or we will see rationing/production stops or at least headlines of it.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels for next week: 22000 - 26000

bull case: Bulls could have one more push in them or if they reach a peace-deal. Bulls are favored since we are still making higher highs and higher lows and there is no further escalation. Further escalation could also be the ticking time bomb the oil market is. Since my macro view is max bearish and bulls had 3 legs up, I do have nothing going for them, other than the squeeze narrative. Chart-wise we are around the 50% retracement and that’s neutral territory.

Invalidation is below 23800

bear case: Bears need a daily close below 24000 for more downside. They have nothing going for them since every dip is bought and we are trading above the daily 20ema. I do think only bad news can help them here.

Invalidation is above 25100

short term: Follow oil. Markets will have to face reality eventually. You do not have to short but you sure as fuck should not FOMO into it

medium-long term - update 2026-04-04: The headlines will dictate the direction. My base case is the world is completely fucked with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next days/weeks and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.

comment: Neutral. This is not the start of a new bull trend. No, this is not going for 30000. This is a violent short squeeze into the biggest oil supply shock in history, which is still unresolved and ongoing. Yes it can go further, yes I have been wrong and yes, above 26000 the only sensible thing to do is either waiting for scaling into long dated shorts. Bear in me still believes this can do an easy -5% down day next week and reverse as easily as it went up. This has no basis and is as unlikely as can be but I do think one tiny act of escalation could trigger it.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels for next week: 23000 - 28000 (yes, really) - mother of all expanding triangles

bull case: Overdone, overbought, peak insanity

Invalidation is below 26500

bear case: Just read that there were no talks. Like… Can markets really stay up on another week of no oil moving through the straight and no peace talks in sight? Sure they can but dear god it’s so mental.

Invalidation is above 28200

short term: I’m only looking to short this to oblivion without blowing my accounts. Buying this above 26000 will hopefully become the dumbest trade in 2026.

medium-long term - Update from 2026-04-25: Target 20000 remains, if the war continues. Lowest I can see it going, if we get a deep recession, is 18000 - 19000.

That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.

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