Brexit vote 10 year anniversary

The morning after the Brexit vote in 2016 I said “this will still be a live political issue in 10 years time”. Today is the 10th anniversary of that vote, so let’s see whether I was right.

ITVX reports of a march to rejoin the EU:

Hundreds march through capital calling to rejoin EU ahead of 10th Brexit anniversary

Brexit was branded a “travesty” by demonstrators who marked the 10th anniversary of the UK’s exit vote with a march calling to rejoin the bloc.

Police on the ground estimated that around 1,500 people set off from central London’s Temple station on Saturday to Parliament Square in Whitehall behind a banner which declared “We Want Our Star Back”.

The National Rejoin March (NRM) was filled with people carrying EU flags and wearing blue and yellow hats and T-shirts that said “Citizen of Europe” and “Re:Union”.

The rejoiners include Spiderman:

Clearly some want to rejoin, but 1500 people is hardly overwhelming. Even if they do have Spiderman on their side.

Andy Burnham is likely to be the country’s next prime minister. What are his views on Brexit?

Unherd says he is lukewarm about rejoining:

That was apparent in Burnham’s shifting pronouncements on the European Union. Burnham never made a secret of his Remainerism when he was Mayor of Greater Manchester. Just last year he was trying to open up a conversation about rejoining. “I believe in unions of all kinds,” he bafflingly proclaimed: “the union of the UK. The EU benefited this country. Trade unions. People prosper more when they’re part of unions.” But the Makerfield constituency had voted Leave by two to one. Memories of the Remainer Burnham had therefore to be put out of Makerfield minds. Early in the by-election, he made the wise decision not to “re-run” the old arguments. That was enough to win the day; and now he is on track to be Prime Minister.

Michel Barnier thinks if the UK rejoins it could get some of its old terms back:

Michel Barnier has said Britain could regain its special terms if it rejoined the EU and claimed it was becoming clearer every day to the British people that they would be stronger in Europe.

In an interview before the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum next week, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator said he could not see any obstacle to the UK keeping the pound and remaining outside the passport-free Schengen travel area should the country rejoin.

UK public opinion favours rejoining:

And most people think Brexit has had negative results:

Even if Britain doesn't rejoin the EU, most people want closer ties with it:

(My own view is that it would be very desirable for Britain to have a close relationship on military and defence, both with EU countries and countries outside the EU, for example Canada, Australia, and Japan.)

Since the Brexit vote we’ve had 6 prime minister: Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer. That’s one PM every 1.7 years. And we’ll soon have another as Starmer announced his resignation yesterday.

In the 20 years preceding the Brexit vote we had 4 prime ministers (Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron) -- which is one every 5 years.

So Britain has been less politically stable after the Brexit vote. Of course this doesn’t prove that Brexit caused the instability; post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this therefore because of this) is a logical fallacy for a reason.

Brexit is clearly a live political issue, in that it is not settled: most people want to rejoin.

Having said that, rejoining is not a very high priority, either for the ruling class or the general population.