An event-based measure of MP surprise and the duration risk premium
What can we learn from bond returns on Fed Days.
Policy Tensor
Official blog of the Policy Tensor.
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Latest posts
How large are Russian losses?
The Russian rate of attrition is normal
The War of Numbers in Israel
It’s not just the exodus
How the US can defeat Iran
The United States is facing strategic defeat.
Solved: The puzzle of the missing barrels
Compellence is hard.
Can Iran close Hormuz?
Iran has lost cat and mouse.
Iran’s Theory of Victory
Why Tehran has seized the initiative
Trump was deterred by the Iranian threat to kill US troops
A little seen tweet from the commander running the IRGC’s missile command may be the reason Trump taco’d.
How Iran will retaliate
Vulnerability matrix and military strategy
The clock will now tick faster
The Persian Gulf is shut tight
Notes on the balance of power in West Asia
What explains Iranian primacy?