Moscow could use recovered Ukrainian drone parts to stage an attack on Baltic infrastructure in a bid to undermine NATO support for Kyiv, Lithuania’s defence minister said.
Russia is considering staging a false-flag attack against critical infrastructure in the Baltics using Ukrainian drones in an attempt to discredit Kyiv and weaken NATO’s backing for Ukraine, Lithuania’s defence minister, Robertas Kaunas, has warned.
“We are talking about a potential false-flag operation where a fake Ukrainian drone could be used,” he said during a press briefing. “That’s the most realistic current scenario.”
Read More: Euronews
Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to new U.S. intelligence reports that posit possible scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion.
The assessments, described by U.S. officials, come amid a shortfall in certain critical munitions that the military would need to confront Russia or China in a potential future war. The U.S. has severely degraded its stockpile of these weapons because of transfers to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, as well as the U.S. conflict with Iran. Stockpiles at risk include long-range Precision Strike Missiles and Army Tactical Missile Systems, as well as short-range Stinger surface-to-air missiles, other officials said.
Read More: Wall Street Journal
Something Is Setting Off Alarm Bells Across NATO
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Aug 8
Within hours yesterday, Lithuania and the U.S. put out warnings that Russia may be preparing to test NATO with a limited attack on one of its members. Lithuania’s Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said they had intelligence that Russia could carry out attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region and could use Ukrainian-made drones for these attacks. “We are talking about a potential false-flag operation where a fake Ukrainian drone could be used,” he warned. “That’s the most realistic current scenario.”
An explosive-laden drone discovered at an airport in Germany this week likely belongs to the Russian government, according to U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports about the incident.
The drone was spotted on the tarmac at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany on Tuesday night in a secure area near a Ukrainian cargo jet, prompting the airport to shut down for the night. The country’s interior minister said the incident represented “a new level of danger,” pointing to a sophisticated foreign actor as the potential culprit.
Authorities also are looking into a second unidentified object that collided with a cargo plane after the plane aborted its landing at Leipzig due to the closure. The plane suffered minor damage and landed safely at a nearby airport.
Read More: Wall Street Journal
When Russia fires a ballistic missile at Ukraine, air-defense systems have only minutes — sometimes seconds — to detect and intercept the deadly threat.
The lack of time has left Kyiv and other cities increasingly exposed to devastating attacks by the missiles that come down so fast and so steeply that Ukraine says only the U.S.-made Patriot defense system can stop them. But Ukraine says it has too few batteries and interceptors to protect itself.
Unlike cruise missiles, which behave like pilotless planes, ballistic missiles are launched like rockets and then dive steeply toward their targets at several times the speed of sound.
That sharply reduces the time available to find and destroy a warhead. The result has been repeated attacks like the latest barrage on the Ukrainian capital that targeted a brewery, a warehouse and a mail-sorting office. At least 17 people were killed, and dozens more wounded, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Wednesday.
Read More: Associated Press
A North Korean missile unit has begun deploying to western Russia and could be equipped with 120 ballistic missiles and six launchers for strikes against Ukraine, an official at Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said.
Ukraine is very short of high-end air defences and Russia has tried to exploit this by using more ballistic missiles, which are particularly hard to shoot down.
Russia has fired scores of North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukraine since late 2023, but the deployment of North Korean missile forces would be an expansion of the already extensive military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Read More: Reuters
Japan’s Defense Report Deserves Far More Attention
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Aug 4
As with so many important developments these days, Japan’s newly released defense report barely got any attention. What makes the report significant is not that it revealed some new intelligence about Russia, China, or North Korea, but that it acknowledges something Ukraine has been warning about since the beginning of Russia’s genocidal full-scale invasion. While much of the international community viewed Russia’s war as a European security crisis, Kyiv warned that Moscow’s invasion would reach far beyond Ukraine, embolden authoritarian regimes, deepen military cooperation among America’s adversaries, and reshape the global security landscape. Those warnings were repeatedly dismiss…
An EU naval mission led by Italy boarded a tanker from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” on Sunday, the second such operation in less than two weeks as Europe intensifies scrutiny of vessels suspected of helping Moscow circumvent oil sanctions.
Italy’s Defence Ministry said the Toa Payoh, a tanker subject to EU sanctions, was intercepted west of the Sicilian island of Pantelleria while sailing from Benin to Istanbul.
The vessel had switched to a Cameroon registry only last week, according to a source familiar with the operation. Maritime authorities launched the inspection to verify that the tanker was legally entitled to fly the Cameroon flag and that its registration documents were valid.
Read More: Reuters
Concerns are mounting about the well-being of an American detained in Russia since 2022, with an advocate alleging he has been subjected to physical and psychological torture.
Robert Gilman is “near death” after falling into a dissociative stupor more than six weeks ago, according to Eric Lebson, the chief strategy officer of Global Reach, an advocacy organization representing his family.
The US government is “deeply concerned” about Gilman’s “health and continued detention in Russia,” a State Department spokesperson said Friday.
“Given these health concerns, the US government has raised his case repeatedly with the Russian government and has requested his release on humanitarian grounds,” the spokesperson said.
Gilman, a 32-year-old former Marine, was forced to take psychotropic drugs and told lies about his family being beaten up and about being forgotten by the United States, Lebson told CNN.
Read More: CNN
Ukraine has purchased a significant package of U.S.-made defense equipment from Turkey, including 70 long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), according to U.S. congressional records.
The weapons transfer is expected to be initiated in late August.
The package includes 70 M39 ATACMS missiles, 12 M270 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), over 2,000 cluster munitions, and 47,000 howitzer rounds, according to a notice from the U.S. State Department recorded in congressional minutes on Aug. 6.
Read More: Kyiv Independent
A Russian disinformation campaign has targeted French presidential candidate Gabriel Attal, said a government body and a member of his team on Wednesday, August 5, in the latest such report in recent weeks. The alleged interference comes as France prepares for next year’s presidential election, with the far right eyeing its best chance yet at winning.
Security authorities detected “external interference originating from Russia and bodies linked to the Russian central government” targeting the former centrist prime minister, a member of the 37-year-old’s staff told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Read More: Le Monde
Fabricated videos that falsely accuse candidates of corruption, sexual misconduct and other crimes. Fake social media posts. A drone packed with explosives discovered at Leipzig Airport, one of Germany’s most strategically important transport hubs.
Together, these incidents are fueling fears of Russian interference in upcoming German regional elections where far-right parties are on the rise. The Kremlin has been accused of seeking to sway September’s elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania, states in the former communist East Germany where pro-Russian sentiment remains strong and where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could take power for the first time at the state level.
“We do of course see that Russia attempts every day, in one way or another — through hybrid means and various measures — to exert influence here in Germany in a manner that seeks to undermine our democracy and erode trust in politics and politicians,” said Martin Giese, a foreign ministry spokesperson.
Read More: Politico EU
Around 1,600 Danish military recruits on Monday began the country’s new extended conscription, embarking on an 11-month service period as Denmark accelerates its defence build-up driven by Arctic security pressures and the war in Ukraine.
Denmark said in 2024 it would extend conscription to include women for the first time and increase standard service time to 11 months from four, while the number of conscripts is set to increase to 7,500 annually by 2033 from 5,000.
Read More: Reuters
FBI Director Kash Patel says he has forged new law enforcement partnerships with China and Russia, two longtime U.S. rivals, over the past year in hopes of gaining allies in combating transnational crime including fentanyl, cyber fraud and child sexual exploitation.
The partnerships have involved personnel exchanges in which Chinese law enforcement officials have visited the United States and FBI agents have traveled to China to work on cases together and share intelligence. Separately, FBI and Chinese officers have carried out joint raids and arrests under the arrangement.
Patel returned from a trip to Beijing in late July, and a similar trip to Russia has been tentatively planned for October, according to FBI officials.
Read More: Reuters
Why Is Russia Talking About Giving Kash Patel Kompromat on Democrats?
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Aug 9
A few weeks ago, I wrote about Patel’s reported upcoming trip to Moscow and St. Petersburg on October 14–15 and the serious implications of such a trip. I asked why the FBI director needs to travel to Russia, what he planned to discuss with Russia’s security services, and why the trip was taking place just weeks before the midterms.
As The Insider has discovered, Russia is rapidly developing the domestic production of lithium-ion batteries for FPV drones. This is evidenced by a sharp rise in imports of materials needed to assemble this component, with several areas showing manifold growth. The development of the industry in Russia will significantly undermine the West’s ability to influence the supply of drones to Moscow’s military.
Read Investigation: The Insider
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