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Watching the Strait of Hormuz makes sense: Wall Street has mostly treated the war as another dip-buying opportunity. Retail investors are buying stocks at more than three times their normal July pace, while nine of Citadel Securities’ ten market indicators have turned bullish. Apparently, the official investment strategy is now: missiles are temporary, Nvidia is forever.
Then there’s Japan.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has started publicly encouraging Japan’s enormous state pension fund to invest more money at home. She even pointed out that when the yen weakens, the fund can sell foreign assets and buy Japanese ones instead. Sounds like boring pension administration? What if I told you that this is how governments describe moving hundreds of billions of dollars?
Wall Street is staring at the oil tankers, but it may be missing the pension fund quietly backing away from the casino table.
Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund controls roughly $1.8 trillion, including about $931 billion in foreign assets and $232 billion in U.S. Treasuries. Tokyo says there is no immediate plan for a dramatic portfolio overhaul. That is important. This is not “Japan dumps America on Monday morning.”
But Japan does not need a dramatic overhaul.
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