Inside: The Red Sea Bottleneck Breakdown, Scorpio Tankers Catalyst Strategy, Complete Nasdaq-100 Decision Map (31 Buys vs. 30 Avoids), and Fresh ETF Signals.
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Want me to go contrarian? Fine. Disregard the $100 oil price tag.
Instead, I’d suggest you look at something that’s happening several thousand miles away, on a tanker taking the world’s least relaxing scenic route:
A TORM vessel from Saudi Arabia to Japan with 500,000 barrels of naphtha onboard is taking a detour to avoid the dangerous route around Yemen that could add ~30 days to the journey.
In other words, the ship disappears from the available market for another month.
If you do that often enough, you end up with a tanker shortage, even if none are sunk or confiscated. Extra miles turn to increased freight rates. And that’s where capitalism shines and everyone with a Bloomberg terminal sees potential. “We may be attacked by drones” becomes “strong forward guidance.” This is especially true for the ships carrying diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, and petrochemical products.
The most important test comes on Thursday: Scorpio Tankers reports earnings. The previous quarter was excellent, so now we need to know if the shipping squeeze is here to stay with the newly booked third-quarter rates. If it isn’t, investors are about to discover they bought the peak.
So, how can we tell that it’s a genuine tanker bull market?
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