Macro Compass
The macro backdrop is moving closer to Goldilocks, but markets are increasingly positioned for it.
Michael Spencer
FX, macro & derivatives insights from 25+ years in global markets covering hedge funds across London and Asia. Writing on volatility, liquidity, positioning and trade expression. Japan & Classical Music enthusiast, & keeping fit.
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Latest posts
AUDUSD: From Spot Signal to Volatility Trade
Working Paper No. 2 — Markets & Spencer FX & Macro Research
MACRO COMPASS
The Market’s Focal Point is Changing
Today’s Price Action: Has the Dollar Lost Its Grip?
Today’s market reaction was about far more than a dovish Federal Reserve or a softer-than-expected Core PCE print.
Working Paper No. 1: Japanese FX Intervention and USDJPY Option Markets
In May I published an initial note examining whether Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention creates opportunities in USDJPY option markets.
Macro Compass
The week ahead - data, earnings & investment implications
Japan’s Swing Factor - Steven Major
Major Markets Letter #32
What to look for for the carry trade to be unwound ...
going into depth in Asia's Surpluses & US Tech -
Core PCE: Is the Fed Credibility Trade About to be Tested?
Markets have already begun to unwind part of last week's hawkish repricing. Today's Core PCE release will tell us whether investors are questioning the Fed's resolve—or simply taking profits.
Renewed Fed Credibility: What’s the Best Trade?
Testing how rates, FX, commodities and equities respond when markets price a more restrictive Federal Reserve. Core PCE will be a test this week..