On 27 May I published an initial note exploring whether Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention creates opportunities in USDJPY option markets. That note raised more questions than it answered. Over the past two months I expanded the analysis into a formal event study of official intervention campaigns between 2022 and 2026. The result is Markets & Spencer Working Paper No. 1: Japanese FX Intervention and USDJPY Option Markets, examining how intervention affects both realised and implied USDJPY volatility—and whether it creates systematic opportunities in FX options markets.
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