Why it's bad to be 100% sure about anything

Paul and Liam are indisputably the best quizzers there. I’ve got a good general knowledge, but it’s mostly limited to only a few sections of the library. Philosophy, obviously, but I’m decent at English literature, history, and politics. But the moment there’s a question about the Grand Prix, music, or soap operas, I’m glazing over and reaching over to steal another of Joe’s cheese and onion crisps. It’s not the flavor I’d have chosen, but Joe does Joe.

And every month, just before the drinks break (one of seven), the quizmaster will throw out one of those impossible-to-get questions that are really just testing your ability to provide an educated guess.

“How many cans of Coke get drunk every day around the world?”

“Yes, full-fat Coke, Val. No, regular 330 mL cans, Harry. No, just normal Coke, Sam. No, not Cherry. Not Vanilla. Not Raspberry… What the f*** is Raspberry Coke anyway?”

So it goes.

I used to hate these best-guess questions because I figured a pub quiz should be about knowledge, not shooting in the dark. But I’ve come to see them as a valuable exercise in the wisdom of crowds. Best-guess questions aren’t testing Paul, or Liam, or Onion-breath Joe; they test the entire team.

“I reckon 20 million,” Nick says.

“20 million?! Sod off,” Liam shouts, too loudly for the sneaky, secret whispers of huddled quiz tables. “Let’s do the maths. There are 8 billion people in the world, right? Let’s subtract the babies, the very old, and so on, so…”

The beauty of a best-guess question is that it gets to the heart of what the ancient Skeptics once knew: that we will often never know the answer to things. There might not even be an answer to things. The trick with knowledge — the trick with life — is to fumble your way to something a bit better than before, and a bit less wrong than yesterday.

And in this week’s full interview with the author and philosopher Massimo Pigliucci we explore how we can do just that.

Thank you, as always, my generous patrons and friends,
Jonny