As the violence decline approaches its end, how does the ARPA explanation hold up?
Plus, responding to critics
External Processing
Thinking out loud about fear and facts
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Latest posts
Financing Evidence-Based Prevention
With a little help from Matt Levine
Comparative advantage versus competitive advantage and AI vs Human Beings
And why AI job loss in the professional classes isn’t inevitable
A Deep Dive into Why Crime is Falling
A conversation with Jeff Asher
Why are so many women incarcerated?
Few women are incarcerated in the US, but a cost-benefit analysis finds that number is still way too high
Fixing America's Jails
The challenge of reducing jail populations and differential treatment simultaneously
The Sidewalk Ballet
And what a city loses when order is imposed
Is the crime decline just about more vigorous policing?
Taking on the Vigor Theory of crime
What is the rate of recidivism for people who have been incarcerated?
One estimate is 35%. The other is 71%. They are both correct.
Did the homicide decline change racial disparities in firearm homicide victimization?
Does the cyclical nature of violence epidemics effect racial disparities in victimization?
Recent trends in gun violence in America
Gun sales are high, but below long-term trends, firearms homicides are declining, and firearms suicides are increasing