INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

August 25th, 2026

Greetings!

As Tuesday winds down, the Lynyrd Skynyrd 1973 refrain “Tuesday’s gone with the wind” from their classic hit “Tuesday’s Gone” comes to mind.

Earlier in the day, the Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent both ran articles reporting that on Ukraine’s 35th anniversary of its independence, “the U.S. has again declined to join a United Nations statement condemning Russia’s attacks on Ukraine and calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.”

Photo Credit: Reuters. A U.S. military transport plane approaches Moscow, Russia, on Wednesday, Aug. 25, 2026, in this screen grab taken from a social media video.

The ‘why’ – at least part of the why – presented itself later in the day when Social Media exploded reporting that a U.S. Air Force C-17A reportedly had landed at Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport.

It’s hard to keep anything a secret anymore as “OSINT analysts tracked its route: on August 23, the aircraft, callsign RCH4555 and registration 07-7181, flew from Charleston via Joint Base Andrews near Washington to Riga. This morning, it departed Riga without a publicly listed destination.”

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BACKDOOR COMMUNICATIONS?

Photo Credit: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Zuma Press. CIA Director John Ratcliffe

CBS News reported the passenger on the C-17 was CIA Director John Ratcliffe.

CNN reports that “the U.S. asked Ukraine to halt drone and missile strikes in Moscow and other cities in the north of Russia ahead of Ratcliffe’s trip” from Monday through Wednesday of this week, telling Ukraine that a senior U.S. official would be traveling in Russia.

The why seems apparent – get Russian President Vladimir Putin back to the negotiation table, which probably explains why the U.S. declined to join the UN statement condemning Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. The White House didn’t want to ‘poison the well’ before the meeting took place.

But why Ratcliff?

Unlike U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Ratcliff brings a different skill set to the table – one that a former KGB agent would likely respect.

It’s safe to say that the Witkoff & Kushner buddy-buddy approach and business deals are off the table and that a more direct approach to bring the war to a conclusion is. Giving Putin the U.S. intelligence assessment of his current situation – versus what his generals are telling him – may shock him to the negotiation table.

Or not.

And why now?

Witkoff & Kusher have been a little busy with Iranian negotiations – better described by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as ‘passing messages between Pakistan and Qatar mediators.’ That, and Kusher was recently dispatched to meet with minority leader Representative Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) ahead of the November elections to discuss potential areas of common ground should the Democrats retake the House.

But the most likely reason – the path to escalation is on a fast track.

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ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT A CEASEFIRE?

Not on a fast track to a nuclear war – but a World War that could potentially drag NATO, North Korea, Belarus and China into Putin’s quest to conquer Ukraine.

Here’s why:

1. Russian casualties now total 1,479,300 – up another 1,230 today. 42,860 casualties in the month of July, with no end in sight. The Kremlin keeps sending them into the ‘meat grinder’ and Ukrainian drones make them go away. Rinse and repeat daily.

2. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin is preparing to launch a new wave of mobilization following the Russian State Duma elections on September 21st – drafting as many as 300,000 to 500,000 more troops.

3. North Korea is prepared to deploy another 30,000 – 50,000 soldiers, ballistic missile launchers, KN-23/KN-24 missiles and their crews to Russia.Putin remains fixated on the Donbas.

4. The Kremlin is 0 – 15 on Putin deadlines to capture the region since the invasion in February 2022. But they continue to press – like Big 10 Football in the 80s, ‘three yards and a cloud of dust.’ The Kyiv Post cites an Institute for the Study of War estimate that “at the current rate of advance [which on some parts of the front … has slowed to as little as 15-70 meters (49-230 feet) per day, described as record-low rates in more than a century of modern warfare] Russian forces are unlikely to capture the remaining parts of Donbas by the end of 2026 and may never achieve the objective.”

5. A Russian lawmaker has said Moscow should complete its war against Ukraine by 2030 to prepare for what he described as a potential future confrontation with NATO.

6. The Atlantic Council reports that Russia is “likely to expand attacks on the country’s civilian population and critical infrastructure in the coming months … [in order to] break Ukraine’s resistance.” As we wrote in The Hill back in January 2024, Putin has returned to a strategy of weaponizing winter.

Ukraine has no intention of backing down.

1. The Ukrainian Armed Forces has recaptured 288 square miles of Russian-occupied ​land this year across its southeastern front.

2. While the White House has backed away from granting Ukraine license to produce Patriot interceptor missiles – to defend themselves against Russian ballistic missile attacks – the United Kingdom and France have stepped-up and agreed to give Ukraine approval to produce long-range Storm Shadow / SCALP missiles – missiles that can be used to target Russian missile launch sites, storage facilities, production and assembly plants, and command and control centers.

3. Ukraine is looking to add an active defense to the three-fold strategy we described in last week’s INTREP360 to defeat Russia. The introduction of the Fire Point 7 and 9 ballistic missiles will provide additional arrows in Zelensky’s quiver.

4. As reported in the Financial Times, “Ukraine is seeking approval to use Starlink-equipped drones against ballistic missile launchers up to 200km inside Russia as Kyiv faces a severe shortage of air-defence interceptors. The move would require approval from Elon Musk, whose stance towards Ukraine and its use of his satellite internet service has oscillated.”

5. The Kyiv Independent reports that Ukraine also expects to receive a timeline for further work on Freyja, a joint anti-ballistic missile system project by European and Ukrainian defense companies. Norway confirmed a $9 billion financial support package outside the EU framework to help finance the Freyja project.

6. Ukraine also received confirmation that it will receive several Crotale air defense systems and their VT-1 missiles, as well as AIM missiles and additional missiles for Patriot systems.

Russia responded to the technology transfer by threatening the UK – never mind the Kremlin’s use of Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles – and dragging Japan into the mix with the Kuril Islands.

Ratcliff’s mission is to ‘cool the engines.’ And that begins with the aggressor – Russia.

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Dolly Parton

Photo Credit: Ron Davis / Getty Images File. Parton performance in 1995.

We were saddened by the news that American Country Music icon Dolly Parton passed away today. Mark spent some time in Nashville and had a chance to meet her on several occasions when he owned an entertainment magazine. She was an amazing talent and a incredibly humble person. Rest in Peace Mrs. Parton.

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ICYMI. Mark earned his pay today, making appearances on Pakistan television and Cairo’s Al Qahera News.

You can see them here:

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Thank you for reading.

We’ll see you again on Wednesday.

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Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.