August 24th, 2026
Greetings!
We are finally back in the same hemisphere and, as we pen today’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, we are returning to Sweet AND Toth as opposed to Sweet OR Toth. Thank you for forbearing with us while Jon took some much-needed extended time off island hopping in Hawaii.
Turkey and Israel are on our mind today. If and when the Iranian regime is toppled, the two U.S. allies will likely vie for regional power in the Middle East.
AI image credit: Grok. Clockwise: AI-generated depictions of Israeli, Turkish, Hamas and Syrian flags.
Last week, on August 18th, we got a glimpse of what they might look like. Israel’s air force hit the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria. The military facility is located near the Syrian city of Aleppo near the Turkish border.
***
ISRAEL’S REDLINE IN SYRIA
Jerusalem accused Turkish President Recep Erdoğan of attempting to violate an understanding with Ankara that Turkey’s military would stay out of Syria. Yechiel Leiter, the Israeli Ambassador to the United States, said that “[Israel is] not seeking escalation or war with either Turkey or Syria but a redline was crossed.”
Leiter made it clear that Israel was acting on intelligence and that “those who needed to know what was coming knew,” implying that the U.S., Syria, and Turkey were notified in advance of the Israeli airstrikes. According to Syria, the airbase was hit eight times.
Photo credit: Associated Press. Stripped Syrian fighter jets are seen at the Abu al-Duhur military airbase in Syria on December 7th, 2024.
Israel claimed that Turkey was preparing to send troops, radar and air-defense systems, drones, and other military stores to Abu al-Duhur. To deter that, Israel targeted the base’s runways, hangars, and storage facilities.
Later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quoted as saying that, “Israel made the message clear [to Turkey and Syria]: Don’t.” He also added that, “We will not tolerate a Turkish military buildup extending southward. We made sure they understood it better.”
***
TURKEY’S RESPONSE
Turkey’s Defense Ministry and Erdoğan’s presidential office denied they were intending to send troops to the facility. They called Israel’s claims “untenable” and “baseless.” Ankara also accused Netanyahu of inventing the Abu al-Duhur pretense ahead of the upcoming Israeli Knesset elections in October.
Photo credit: Mustafa Kamaci / Office of Turkey Presidency. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (left) meets with Turkish President Recep Erdoğan in Istanbul, Turkey on May 24th, 2025.
Ankara also made it clear that they will continue to assist Syria and President Ahmed al-Sharaa as he continues to stabilize the country after taking over as its leader in 2025 after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime. Turkey was instrumental in aiding al-Sharaa to topple al-Assad’s regime, sending him fleeing to Moscow.
Notably, Syrian officials were quoted as confirming that a Turkish military delegation did visit Abu al-Duhur.
Plus, in a clear signal to Netanyahu, Turkish Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced on August 21st, that the ministry was requesting an Interpol Red Notice based on domestic arrest warrants for the Israeli prime minister that were issued on July 14th, by Istanbul’s 11th High Criminal Court. The warrants were issued in response to Israel’s May interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla that was attempting to make port in Gaza. The flotilla originated in Marmaris, Turkey. A red notice is a non-binding request for law enforcement agencies around the world to arrest an individual or in this case Netanyahu.
***
TOM BARRACK STEPS IN IT
Tom Barrack, who is the U.S. ambassador to Turkey as well as President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Syria and Iraq, publicly criticized the Israeli attack on Abu al-Duhur saying that it was “unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.”
Photo credit: Antalya Diplomacy Forum. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack speaks to reporters in Antalya, Turkey on April 17th.
He did not condemn Turkey’s request for a Red Notice. Seeking the arrest of a head of state does not exactly promote regional stability either.
Then Barrack really stepped into it. On August 22nd, during an interview, he noted that Israel still “[occupies the Golan [Heights] against the [United Nations] resolutions, [and] against all of the international order which has said that the Golan is Syria’s.”
Israel was incensed and, Barrack was contradicting Trump’s own formal proclamation on March 25th, 2019, during his first term wherein the U.S. recognized that the Golan Heights are part of the State of Israel. Notably, the Biden Administration did not rescind Trump’s policy proclamation on the Golan Heights.
Photo credit: Susan Walsh / Associated Press. President Donald Trump holds up a signed proclamation recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Neyanhau looks on at the White House on March 25th, 2019.
For anyone familiar with the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, they know that Israel will never relinquish control of the Golan Heights. After Syria invaded Israel in 1973 through the Golan, Israel firsthand learned that its control is existential.
Barrack would be well-served to revisit his Middle Eastern history as well as revisit the decisions Trump made during his first administration. His comments were needlessly reckless, especially given the flaring tensions between Israel and Turkey.
Several days later on August 23rd, Barrack walked his comments back. He stated that “United States policy on the Golan was set by President Trump in 2019 and remains unchanged.” Nonetheless, the damage was already done.
***
THE RISE OF THE NEW OTTOMAN EMPIRE?
Beginning with the Turkish successful campaign to support al-Sharaa’s toppling of al-Assad in Syria, Ankara is deepening – if not accelerating – its approach to projecting power across former Ottoman Empire regions, including Syria, Libya, the Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the Red Sea.
In doing so, Erdoğan is intentionally setting up Turkey as a regional economic and military rival to Israel. For now, Ankara’s plans are in their infancy; however, over time the risk of conflict between Turkey and Israel will only heighten as the two countries compete for airspace, freedom of action, control of energy corridors, and regional influence.
If it indeed comes to that, then the U.S. will find itself in a precarious position. Israel is its most reliable Mideast ally; however, Turkey – with all of its Article 5 implications – is a fellow NATO ally.
***
TURKEY MAKES A POWER MOVE
As part of his bid to position Turkey as a kingmaker – if not dictator – of the Middle East, Erdoğan entered into a mutual self-defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. It was signed on August 7th by Erdoğan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Photo credit: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Turkish President Recep Erdoğan (left), Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (center), and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (right) holding copies of the mutual defense pact signed in Mecca, Saudi Arabia on August 7th.
The pact could expand. Egypt has been invited.
Notably, Pakistan does not have diplomatic relations with Israel. Islamabad, like Israel, is a nuclear power. Erdoğan and bin Salman, by extending Pakistan’s potential military reach into the heart of the Arab world, very well could potentially result in a nuclear standoff between the pact and the Israelis.
Ostensibly, the pact is a result of the U.S.-Iran war and Tehran’s attacks on the Gulf states and wider Arab world. By failing to rapidly win the war, the Trump Administration is potentially creating a nuclear second order effect that they fully had not accounted for in their initial decision to go to war.
***
THE HAMAS ANGLE
Washington cannot forget that in the aftermath of Hamas’ heinous Oct. 7 terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians that Turkey refused to designate Hamas as a terrorist organization. Quite the opposite, in the immediate aftermath, Erdoğan labeled Hamas as a “liberation group.”
Ever since, Turkey has essentially made itself a Hamas safe haven. Turkey regularly hosts senior Hamas leaders in Ankara and Istanbul. U.S. and Israeli intelligence also assess that Hamas uses Turkey as a center for fundraising, money laundering, and recruitment.
Nor is Erdoğan’s ties to Hamas new. Shortly after his electoral win in 2006, Erdoğan invited Hamas leaders to Turkey to celebrate.
Israel and Turkey have been on a collision course for a long time. Hamas, like Syria and Lebanon, are redlines for Jerusalem.
Erdoğan, as well as the U.S., would do well to consider the third- and fourth-order effects of Turkey pushing Israel too far.
***
ICYMI #1
Last week, we appeared on First Western TV in Lviv, Ukraine. The program was hosted by our good friend Daniel Tkiie.
We focused on Ukraine’s expanding strategy of taking the war to Russia as well as gave our take on Mykhailo Fedorov’s call to find a way to hold elections despite the Ukrainian constitution specifically prohibiting them during wartime.
You can watch it here. This version is in English. The episode inspired us to pen last week’s column in The Hill. You can read that here.
If you are reading this in Ukraine, you can watch the Ukrainian version here.
***
ICYMI #2
Earlier today, Mark was on Express 24/7 TV in Pakistan. The news magazine show – DECODE – was hosted by Zunaira Azhar.
The episode explored whether or not we are seeing divisions within the regime in Iran as well as what is likely to happen net.
The program is in English. You can watch it here.
***
ICYMI #3
On Saturday evening, Mark appeared on the Main Edition of TVP World’s World News Tonight in Warsaw, Poland. Sally Jastrzębska was the news anchor.
They discussed how Ukraine is striking back against Russia as well as the messaging Russian President Vladimir Putin was sending by striking a shopping center in Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The program is in English. You can watch Mark’s segment here or you can watch the entire Main Edition news broadcast here.
***
ICYMI #4
On Sunday, Mark appeared on Q News, the English language service of Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt. He discussed President Donald Trump’s ‘Economic D-Day’ threat against the ruling regime in Iran.
Due to technical difficulties, only a brief clip survives. The clip is in English and you can watch it here.
***
ICYMI #5
Earlier today, Jon appeared on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt to discuss President Trump’s so-called ‘Economic D-Day’ against Iran.
You can watch a clip here or you can watch the entire segment here. Please note that the program is in Arabic.
***
Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.