Jannik Sinner takes on Novak Djokovic for the first time since their epic Australian Open semifinal. What was pivotal in Djokovic’s upset win there was the forehand down-the-line, clutch serving on break points, and wily energy management across five sets of Sinner-speed tennis.
The forehand aggression has been a feature of Djokovic’s when facing off against Sincaraz. Up until this year’s Aus Open match, The 2023 ATP Finals was the best example of post-peak Novak’s tactics in quicker conditions: lethal pinpoint serving followed up by a huge increase in risk-tolerance on the forehand, both in terms of speed, and change of direction.
It’s well noted that Sinner usually hits the ball heavier (i.e., more speed and spin) off both wings than Djokovic, but the forehand is where Djokovic can step up and even out-shine his usually more-powerful opponents.
Given this, I wonder if Sinner will make an effort to make this a match of more backhands than usual. Novak is often touted as possessing the greatest backhand of all-time, while his forehand is the one that is often overlooked in that conversation. But I think post-prime Novak is something inverted in these affairs; it’s the Serb’s forehand that clearly is a candidate for greatest of all-time, given how well he returns off that wing, changes direction, handles pace, and can be lethal in both directions from end-range. And if we take the AI’s interpretation of shot quality in this matchup, we can see that Novak’s backhand is the shot that has been on a steady decline and is the clear weaker wing (currently good enough for 8th in 2026 shot-quality rankings) whereas the forehand has been getting better and better since 2024.
In Australia, Djokovic got to hit 40 more forehands than backhands, and it was the wing that delivered all the damage and won him the match.
Yes, the Djokovic backhand was tidy — especially in comparison to Sinner — but I do wonder if Sinner should have played to that wing a little bit more, or have been content to trade middle with more intent, as Brad Gilbert and Gill Gross observed in their preview:
Brad Gilbert@bgtennisnation
Two things I really noticed from the matchup from @AustralianOpen in rewatching it Djoker used lots of deep middle ball 🎾 and unleashed the running fearhand ala Pete Sampras, not as many bachand to bachand rallies that he likes 👍 to get involved in @TennisChannel
12:51 AM · Jul 10, 2026 · 8.37K Views
7 Replies · 4 Reposts · 63 Likes
Avoiding damaging forehands and using his own excellent backhand has been a feature of Sinner’s in his recent wins over Alcaraz. He starved Alcaraz for forehands in Monte Carlo, and did the same thing in the second set of the 2025 US Open final; the only set he won that day:
Let’s not forget how pivotal Sinner’s backhand down the line was in last year’s Wimbledon final:
He’s got the swing length to be damaging from that wing, even in defensive positions:
And it was a clear tactic last year to go big with the backhand when playing into the Alcaraz forehand:
I think it’s a shot that he will need to lean on today. It gets Djokovic covering more distance when running to his dangerous forehand, and opens up space into the backhand. This from their 2024 Australian Open semifinal:
It’s going to be warm out there today, and the court will be playing more like a hardcourt given the dry fortnight they’ve been having. I think this favours Sinner — heat issues aside — as he can inject more pace on serve and off the ground, and creates a slightly higher contact point. I don’t think the heat will become an issue physically on a grass court with shorter points.
Speaking of serves, Gilbert observed that FAA got a lot of reward for the wide serve (I noticed this on the ad-side especially), where the 39-year-old Serb gets punished for losing a bit of reaction time. Keep an eye on the Italian’s serve trends today; it’s been a key shot of his as the forehand has somewhat wavered in 2026.
Well that’s all I got. Looking forward to catching this one on replay. See you in the comments. HC
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.